Winning The John Wall Lottery

Later today the 2010 NBA Draft will be held to determine the order in which NBA teams will be able to select players from college or from Europe. The fourteen teams that did not make the playoffs are all entered into a weighted lottery with the worst team (New Jersey Nets) having the greatest chance of winning the first pick, however, it is certainly no guarantee that the worst team will win the lottery. No matter which team wins the NBA Draft Lottery, the first player selected will almost certainly be John Wall, he is a unique talent and has unparalleled physical gifts. The pool of players to select from is deep, and there are many players that project to be successful in the NBA, some of which may even be more successful than John Wall, but Wall has something that none of the other available players have. John Wall is by far the most marketable player in the entire draft.

NBA teams, especially small market teams, rely heavily on sponsorship dollars, and marque players increase opportunities for corporate sponsorships. Without even dribbling a basketball in the NBA John Wall will create numerous possibilities for sponsorships. For the past year Wall has been the face of collegiate basketball, and along with his Kentucky teammates, has generated a great deal of publicity and income for his university. However, his amateur status limited the amount the he and the University of Kentucky could profiteer off of his incredible marketability, but once he reaches the NBA corporations from Nike to Gatorade will be lining up to have him and by proxy his team represent their products.

In some years there aren’t any players available that have Wall’s marketability, and rarely there are several players that share this attribute. A player like Wall can change the fate of a franchise, like LeBron James has for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers were a struggling small market franchise, and like most small markets Cleveland has few Fortune 500 corporations in town to infuse the franchise with sponsorship dollars. At the time the before Lebron, the team’s best player was Zydrunas Iguaskas, a soft spoken seven foot center from Lithuania, which isn’t exactly the most marketable combination in the United States. In 2003 the Cavaliers won the NBA Draft Lottery, naturally selected local high school star LeBron James, and instantaneously corporate sponsors from across the country were lining up to associated with the Cavs. Eventually, LeBron’s marketability would become worldwide, today the Cavs are minority owned by a group of Chinese investors, and the value of the franchise has increased about $200 million since LeBron’s arrival. If Wall can deliver just a portion of what LeBron has done for cleveland it would be a financial windfall for whichever team drafts him.

With no other player like him available in draft, every team is going to be anxious this evening, probably praying to whichever deity they subscribe to, hoping they will be delivered the first pick. Most of the teams in the NBA are struggling financially, the lottery teams are desperate for someone like John Wall. The New Jersey Nets have the greatest chance of winning, but an upcoming move to Brooklyn and a billionaire owner insure that the debt ridden franchise is not going to fold. However, Minnesota and Sacramento the next two most likely teams to win the lottery desperately need the infusion that John Wall could bring, both are small market teams that have had little success on court or with the balance sheets. Of all the teams with a legitmate shot at the top pick, the Philadelphia 76ers need a new face to their franchise as well as a top flight lead guard. The 76ers are in a good market, but have been struggling for several seasons to sell tickets, so the NBA would be thrilled if Wall landed in Philadelphia.

The fallout from the lottery will impact teams that are not even part of the lottery process because many of the teams that have best chance of winning the first pick already have a point guard on their roster, the position that John Wall plays. Several teams will be rooting for the Nets to win the lottery because it would almost certainly make Nets starting point guard Devin Harris available on the trade market. If Minnesota wins the lottery, it would open the door for general manager David Kahn to trade the draft rights of European star Ricky Rubio, assuming he doesn’t do something crazy and draft someone other than Wall, which is entirely plausible in his case.

There are several other blue chip prospects, and many more players that project to be successful NBA starters, DeMarcus Cousins is the best prospect in the draft, and he might not go in the first few picks. Losing the lottery may actually make it easier to make a team better on the court, but with the economy crippling franchises that couldn’t turn a profit when the economy was soaring, the off the court benefits of players like John Wall are essential. Winning the John Wall lottery will change the fortunes of one franchise Tuesday evening, which will make this one of the most important NBA Draft Lotteries rivaling 2003 (Lebron), 1997 (Tim Duncan) and 1985 (Patrick Ewing).

Odds of winning the 2010 NBA Draft Lottery

The draft lottery drawing only determines the top 3 positions, the remaining 4-14 picks are the inverse order of the final standing for the non-playoff teams.

1. New Jersey Nets – 25.0%
2. Minnesota Timberwolves – 19.9%
3. Sacramento Kings – 15.6%
4. Golden State Warriors – 11.9%
5. Washington Wizards – 7.6%
6. Philadelphia 76ers – 7.5%
7. Detroit Pistons – 4.3%
8. Los Angeles Clippers – 2.8%
9. Utah Jazz (from NY Knicks) – 1.7%
10. Indiana Pacers – 1.1%
11. New Orleans Hornets – 0.8%
12. Memphis Grizzlies – 0.7%
13. Toronto Raptors – 0.6%
14. Houston Rockets 0.5%