Lebrocalypse Now

The Cleveland Cavaliers were eliminated from the NBA Playoffs in second round by the Boston Celtics, in what will probably be Lebron James’ last game for the Cavs. A combination of factors led to the Cavaliers’ failure to win a championship: general manager Danny Ferry failed to put another top flight player along side Lebron, head coach Mike Brown did little to develop a half court offense, and was incapable of adjusting his rotation and strategy from game to game, while Lebron himself deserves some blame because his leadership on and off the court became increasingly questionable. Cleveland has little to no flexibility to change a roster that was unable to even reach the conference finals. Mike Brown has already been fired, although it appears that Danny Ferry will remain the Cavs general manager, but it seems unlikely that anything owner Dan Gilbert does will be enough to keep Lebron in Cleveland.

Dan Gilbert bought the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2005 for $375 million, and the franchise’s value has increased over $100 since then, mostly because of Lebron’s incredible marketability. When Lebron leaves most of that added value will contract, and with all small market franchises being highly overvalued, the team could end up being worth less than what Gilbert bought it for. Gilbert, a sports fanatic, has done everything he can to build a championship squad for Lebron, spending over the salary cap for several seasons, this past year, after luxury tax, the Cavs spent almost $100 million on player salaries. Because of this excessive spending the Cavs are actually losing money, and Gilbert has been looking to sell a minority stake in the franchise to a group of Chinese investors, however, no one will be interested in investing any money into a Lebron-less Cavaliers. Even with Lebron’s and Shaq’s huge salaries coming off the books, Cleveland will have very little cap room to bring in any new talent even if someone wanted to play in Cleveland without Lebron. Lebron’s departure will have a long-term impact on the viability of the franchise, which will certainly slump to the level of the other Cleveland sports teams.

The looming lockout in the summer of 2011 will have a huge effect on the current free agent pool. NBA teams will be reluctant to sign anyone to anything more than a one year contract, knowing that the next collective bargaining agreement (CBA) will be much more favorable for the owners. This will have no effect on Lebron James or Dwayne Wade, but it will for all the other free agents, although Lebron and everyone else will be trying to negotiate the longest contract possible. If there wasn’t a new CBA in the offing, the most logical thing for Lebron to do would be to re-sign with Cleveland for three years, after which he would be eligible for the biggest contract under the current CBA, which is only eligible to players with ten years of service. Cleveland can offer the longest contract with the most money (a sixth year at about $26 million), but the difference in the final year of a contract in Cleveland and the first year of a new contract somewhere else would only be a couple million dollars, not enough to sway Lebron to stay.

Lebron, Wade, Chris Bosh and Joe Johnson are in communication with each about the possible moves that they could make in concert with each other, not a good sign for Cleveland since they are unable to sign anyone other than Lebron. Dirk Nowitzki is going to opt out of the final year of his contract, as is A’mare Stoudamire, creating an incredible group of available talent, not even including a strong group of restricted free agents. Where these players end up, as well as possible shake ups in coaching situations in several of Lebron’s possible destinations will dictate where he finally ends up.

The coach is an essential piece of the puzzle, but it will be hard for any team to get a big name coach without already having signed Lebron, and vice-versa, Lebron is going to want to know who the coach is going to be before he is willing to sign anywhere. Phil Jackson and John Calipari are using the media to play footsie with NBA teams in order to improve their contract situations with their current employers. If Mike Krzyzewski was going to leave for the NBA he would have done so before, and much of his archaic system would not work very well in the NBA anyway, which is why so many Duke players struggle at the next level. Larry Brown will be seventy years old by the start of next season, although it is not impossible to see him being lured away from the Charlotte Bobcats. Tom Izzo is the best college coach, and maybe someday he will coach in the NBA, but by all indications it’s not going to happen anytime soon. Jeff Van Gundy is best coach not currently employed by a team, but he seems content to stick to his successful broadcasting career. Most unemployed coaches like Byron Scott and Avery Johnson are unemployed for a reason, just as most assistants are assistants for a reason. Mark Jackson is the best available coaching candidate if he can be pried away from ESPN, but the opportunity to coach Lebron would probably be enough to make that happen, but Lebron would have to be satisfied with a completely unproven coach. The shot Miami has at landing Lebron, is that Pat Riley could offer to take the over as Coach again, and he has the rings to get Lebron’s respect.

New Jersey has a brand new billionaire owner, and could provide Lebron an opportunity to build a franchise in his own image. There is already talent on the Nets, former All-Star Devin Harris and future All-Star Brook Lopez, and they would have cap space to add several other pieces to make New Jersey a contender. However, the proposed move to Brooklyn is way behind schedule, and may never happen, so regardless of how close he may be to minority owner Jay-Z, it’s doubtful he be wearing a Nets jersey next year. The Chicago Bulls made the playoffs last season, and have an emerging young star in Derrick Rose, but their next best player is Joakim Noah, a good young post player, but not exactly All-Star material. If they could somehow trick Toronto or Miami into a sign and trade for the inflated contracts of Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich in exchange for Bosh or Wade, then maybe Lebron would be interested. However, Michael Jordan’s shadow looms large in Chicago, and equalling Jordan’s six championships would be tough regardless of what combination of talent they surround Lebron with, and while Chicago’s market is much larger than Cleveland’s, it’s no New York.

The New York Knicks are the most likely destination for Lebron, they have the cap room to sign two max contract players, giving Lebron a legitimate running mate for the first time in his career. Playing in Madison Square Garden is a huge draw for Lebron, and while winning a title for Cleveland would have made him a legend there, winning one at MSG, and becoming a New York legend is far more appealing for him and for Nike. New York could be an instant contender, if the Knicks can land a combination of Lebron and either Nowitzki or Bosh, and they would still have the mid-level exception, along with about $5 million in cap space, as well as Eddie Curry’s expiring contract. The Boston Celtics made this one year transition from doormat to Champion when they acquired Kevein Garnett and Ray Allen after they failed to win the NBA Draft lottery, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Lebron can bring the Larry O’Brien Trophy back to New York next season, and he certainly would do at least as well as he did with the Cavs this season. New York has endless marketing opportunities, and corporations will be lining up to have his face and name adorning their products and services. With the impeding lockout on the horizon, New York will give Lebron a chance to expand his presence in the entertainment world very easily. The only caveat is that Mike D’Antoni is one of the worst head coaches in the NBA, and there is no way that Lebron would want to play for him, but there is no doubt that the Knicks would be willing to eat the remainder of his four year $24 million contract, and bring in a coach that Lebron approves of, no matter the cost. Lebron will be in New York next season, it’s to good of an opportunity to turn down, and by every indication it’s where he really wants to be.

Winning The John Wall Lottery

Later today the 2010 NBA Draft will be held to determine the order in which NBA teams will be able to select players from college or from Europe. The fourteen teams that did not make the playoffs are all entered into a weighted lottery with the worst team (New Jersey Nets) having the greatest chance of winning the first pick, however, it is certainly no guarantee that the worst team will win the lottery. No matter which team wins the NBA Draft Lottery, the first player selected will almost certainly be John Wall, he is a unique talent and has unparalleled physical gifts. The pool of players to select from is deep, and there are many players that project to be successful in the NBA, some of which may even be more successful than John Wall, but Wall has something that none of the other available players have. John Wall is by far the most marketable player in the entire draft.

NBA teams, especially small market teams, rely heavily on sponsorship dollars, and marque players increase opportunities for corporate sponsorships. Without even dribbling a basketball in the NBA John Wall will create numerous possibilities for sponsorships. For the past year Wall has been the face of collegiate basketball, and along with his Kentucky teammates, has generated a great deal of publicity and income for his university. However, his amateur status limited the amount the he and the University of Kentucky could profiteer off of his incredible marketability, but once he reaches the NBA corporations from Nike to Gatorade will be lining up to have him and by proxy his team represent their products.

In some years there aren’t any players available that have Wall’s marketability, and rarely there are several players that share this attribute. A player like Wall can change the fate of a franchise, like LeBron James has for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers were a struggling small market franchise, and like most small markets Cleveland has few Fortune 500 corporations in town to infuse the franchise with sponsorship dollars. At the time the before Lebron, the team’s best player was Zydrunas Iguaskas, a soft spoken seven foot center from Lithuania, which isn’t exactly the most marketable combination in the United States. In 2003 the Cavaliers won the NBA Draft Lottery, naturally selected local high school star LeBron James, and instantaneously corporate sponsors from across the country were lining up to associated with the Cavs. Eventually, LeBron’s marketability would become worldwide, today the Cavs are minority owned by a group of Chinese investors, and the value of the franchise has increased about $200 million since LeBron’s arrival. If Wall can deliver just a portion of what LeBron has done for cleveland it would be a financial windfall for whichever team drafts him.

With no other player like him available in draft, every team is going to be anxious this evening, probably praying to whichever deity they subscribe to, hoping they will be delivered the first pick. Most of the teams in the NBA are struggling financially, the lottery teams are desperate for someone like John Wall. The New Jersey Nets have the greatest chance of winning, but an upcoming move to Brooklyn and a billionaire owner insure that the debt ridden franchise is not going to fold. However, Minnesota and Sacramento the next two most likely teams to win the lottery desperately need the infusion that John Wall could bring, both are small market teams that have had little success on court or with the balance sheets. Of all the teams with a legitmate shot at the top pick, the Philadelphia 76ers need a new face to their franchise as well as a top flight lead guard. The 76ers are in a good market, but have been struggling for several seasons to sell tickets, so the NBA would be thrilled if Wall landed in Philadelphia.

The fallout from the lottery will impact teams that are not even part of the lottery process because many of the teams that have best chance of winning the first pick already have a point guard on their roster, the position that John Wall plays. Several teams will be rooting for the Nets to win the lottery because it would almost certainly make Nets starting point guard Devin Harris available on the trade market. If Minnesota wins the lottery, it would open the door for general manager David Kahn to trade the draft rights of European star Ricky Rubio, assuming he doesn’t do something crazy and draft someone other than Wall, which is entirely plausible in his case.

There are several other blue chip prospects, and many more players that project to be successful NBA starters, DeMarcus Cousins is the best prospect in the draft, and he might not go in the first few picks. Losing the lottery may actually make it easier to make a team better on the court, but with the economy crippling franchises that couldn’t turn a profit when the economy was soaring, the off the court benefits of players like John Wall are essential. Winning the John Wall lottery will change the fortunes of one franchise Tuesday evening, which will make this one of the most important NBA Draft Lotteries rivaling 2003 (Lebron), 1997 (Tim Duncan) and 1985 (Patrick Ewing).

Odds of winning the 2010 NBA Draft Lottery

The draft lottery drawing only determines the top 3 positions, the remaining 4-14 picks are the inverse order of the final standing for the non-playoff teams.

1. New Jersey Nets – 25.0%
2. Minnesota Timberwolves – 19.9%
3. Sacramento Kings – 15.6%
4. Golden State Warriors – 11.9%
5. Washington Wizards – 7.6%
6. Philadelphia 76ers – 7.5%
7. Detroit Pistons – 4.3%
8. Los Angeles Clippers – 2.8%
9. Utah Jazz (from NY Knicks) – 1.7%
10. Indiana Pacers – 1.1%
11. New Orleans Hornets – 0.8%
12. Memphis Grizzlies – 0.7%
13. Toronto Raptors – 0.6%
14. Houston Rockets 0.5%

The End of Fundamental Basketball As We Know It

Unfortunately for NBA fans owners and players are gearing up for a lockout in 2011.  David Stern may very well be the best Commissioner in North American pro sports, but that may be due more to his competition (MLB’s Bud Selig is weak and conservative, NFL’s Rodger Godell is over zealous and power drunk, while NHL’s Gary Bettman is incompetent) than his own prowess.  There is no doubt that the economic environment has drastically altered the sporting world, but most of the financial problems in the NBA are self induced wounds inflicted by incompetent management.  Last season twelve teams lost money, and according David Stern at least half of the league is projected to lose money this year, and almost all of the teams are carrying debt.  The basic problem is that NBA teams are unable to generate enough revenue to support the exaggerated cost of operating an NBA team.  The largest slice of operating costs are player salaries, which will be the main target of the owners in the negotiation for a new CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement).  However, the main problem is the revenue, even if the players are willing to accept reduced pay, many teams are still going to be unable to turn a profit.  These teams fall into two categories, horribly mismanaged franchises that lose and lose year after year, and small market teams that are simply unable to compete financially.  Market size is the largest factor in the financial viability of a franchise, Los Angeles, New York and Chicago routinely top Forbes’ NBA team valuations every year because those teams have access to the biggest markets in the US.  Last year Forbes’ bottom three teams were small markets, Milwaukee, Memphis and New Orleans.  New Orleans made the playoffs in back to back seasons, and has an All-NBA player in Chris Paul, but is was only able to generate $28 million in gate receipts last season, and the team is barely able to generate a profit despite having one of the most streamlined operations in terms of cost.  Meanwhile, the Lakers were the most profitable team last year, generating $95 million in ticket sales on the back of the highest ticket price in the NBA, enough to cover their $83 million spent in player salaries, not to mention the millions more generated in sponsorship deals and merchandise sales.  In total there is more than $100 million difference in revenue between Los Angeles and New Orleans, and yet there is only a $15 million difference in team payroll.  It is impossible for a small market team to be consistently competitive when operating at such a huge financial disadvantage, the fan base is not necessarily to small in these cities, but they lack the depth to absorb exorbitant ticket prices, and more importantly small markets lack enough fortune 500 companies to ensure the pricey luxury suites are bought up, and that everything regarding the team is sponsored and branded.

Player Contracts

Player Salaries have rocketed in the past decade, in 2000-01 the salary cap was $35.5 million, this season the cap is almost double that at $60.7 million, Tracy McGrady, the highest paid player in the NBA this year, is making $23.2 million, much of which he earned while deactivated.  This summer the salary cap will shrink for the first time since 2002, and projections show the cap continuing to shrink.  This alone will help reduce the max contract salaries, which are tied to the size of the cap.  NBA general managers have become accustomed to being able to spend like crazy, just like every other business in this country, NBA teams were addicted to the cheap credit available over the last decade.  The result were expensive long term contracts for role players, teams over paying for players just to appease agents and re-signing players to lucrative contracts who have no other suitors.  To solve this problem, the owners are going to look to eliminate guaranteed contracts, but how can the owners blame players for singing the contracts that are being offered to them, and since there is no rule that a player has to be signed for five years, the General Mangers should know better than to sign Tim Thomas or Jason Maxiell to long term contracts.  The NBA already has the  rookie salary scale that is cost effective for the owners, and NBA players have to play at least six seasons before the are eligible for the really big contracts, there are effective rules in place, they just aren’t being used effectively.  General Managers got really sloppy, and owners did not hold them accountable, despite many poor performers, a General Manager being fired is relatively rare compared to the turnover rate for NBA coaches.  However, as bad as many General Managers are, running a small market team makes the decisions much tougher, and their mistakes are understandable.

Superstars Needed

In 2005 the Milwuakee Bucks signed Michael Redd to a max contract, the largest available contract under the salary cap rules, he was the Bucks best player, coming off of back to back 20+ point seasons, but he wasn’t worth 25% of the team’s entire payroll.  The six year $91 million contract will expire next season, paying Redd $18.3 million to likely sit out due to injury, while the Bucks only collected $21 million from gate receipts last year.  Larry Harris, Milwaukee’s General Manager at the time of Redd re-signing, made many poor decisions that led the Bucks into the basement of the Eastern Conference (signing Bobby Simmons to a 5 year $47 million contract, which is paying him $11 million to sit on the bench in New Jersey this season, and the drafting of Chinese star Yi Jianlian despite his refusal to play in such a small market, which also landed him in New Jersey), but re-signing Redd wasn’t necessarily one of them because Harris didn’t really have a choice.  Redd was in high enough demand that if Harris only offered market value, Redd would have certainly elected to play in either a larger market or with a star player on a winning team, and even then, at the time every player’s market value was inflated.  While losing Redd would have made financial sense, it would have left Milwaukee cap space with no relative talent to use it on to replace Redd, the team would lose the face of the franchise and all the marketing opportunities Redd provided on a team of relative unknowns.  Harris was gambling that the revenue that Redd could generate would offset the exorbitant cost of retaining his services, but the injury plagued jump shooter was a bad investment, one that can haunt a small market team for multiple losing seasons.  Under the current structure every NBA team can afford at least one max contract player, but honestly there are only a handful of players that have a balance of basketball production and marketability that deserves max contract money (LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Durrant, etc.), but there is a group of second tier players that can squeeze inflated contracts out of smaller market teams simply because they have the cap space and they have to sign someone.

Enter Prokhorov

The New Jersey Nets represent the worst case scenario for the NBA, a team that is essentially a small market team, but sitting on the fringe of New York City has tried to operate like a big market team.  The result is a team that needs a bailout more than the Detroit automakers, the Nets are more than $200 million in debt, and are being kept afloat by creditors and the NBA itself.  The NBA has been desperately pushing Bruce Ratner to sell the team, but with the franchise on such rocky footing, and a costly  proposed move to Brooklyn up in the air, no one was particularly interested in buying the team.  In steps Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov with enough money to ease the Nets financial distress, David Stern would like to avoid the foreign investment, but with no other solution available, the NBA will soon be introducing its first Russian owner.  It sets a dangerous precedent, which already has a parallel in European Football, of owners falling deeply into debt, and then selling their clubs to foreign billionaires including the now deposed Prime Minister of Thailand, today less than half of the Premiership clubs have an English majority owner.  The Nets are in the worst shape by far, but four other teams (Washington, New Orleans, Charlotte and Memphis) are severely leveraged already, and Charlotte is in the process of being sold Michael Jordan, which will only leverage the team more, making the sale to Jordan a dubious decision for David Stern.  Beyond that there are another nine teams that are carrying significant debt (Orlando, Portland, Sacramento, Toronto, Cleveland, Boston, Phoenix, Miami and Oklahoma City), Cleveland owner Dan Gilbert is currently seeking to sell a portion of the Cavs to Chinese investors, and in all likelihood the NBA is going to need more foreign investment to escape the burden of debt.  Just like the housing market, the sports franchise market became incredibly over valued, and while NBA franchises are starting to devalue, they still are not a particularly enticing enterprise to invest in, unless you are an oil tycoon who doesn’t care about absorbing a lot debt, and possibly losing money for the foreseeable future.  Furthermore, while the Nets move to Brooklyn will infuse that franchise with a new audience and many new marketing opportunities, buying a small market team like New Orleans or Memphis is not going to have same allure to a foreign billionaire.

The Worst Is Yet To Come

The NBA’s current economic situation has definitely alarmed David Stern, but the uncertainty of the future must be far more terrifying.  As the economy continues in this protracted recession attendance will fall off, and more importantly corporate sponsors are going to be less willing to throw eight figures at a team for naming rights, so they can brand everything they can slap a logo on.  Television ratings will increase as more people elect to stay home instead of buying pricey tickets, even franchises that struggle to sell more than 70% of their tickets still have average ticket prices around $50, not to mention the increasingly expensive concessions.  NBA teams need to be more effective in their use of the internet and other media to generate more revenue, Cavaliers.com should be best resource for Cavs information and programing, but it’s less useful than the plethora of bloggers following the Cavs, hire those guys for the Cavs site, and every team should be producing as much original content as possible from player reality programing to tutorials explaining the complexities of the game.  Advertising on uniforms is certainly on the way, and a corporate sponsor for the Larry O’Brien Trophy is probably already being arranged.  The big market teams will have a much better chance of survival, the local economies of the small market teams like the Pacers are terrible, the Pacers have asked for help from the local government, which runs Conseco Fieldhouse, but since it is already running at a deficit, and already pays out to the Pacers for non-basketball events, there simply isn’t any help to give.  Lenders are hesitant to hand out cash like they have in the past, and with a lockout looming and franchises no longer increasing in value, there isn’t any reason they will change their stance, making it harder for teams to refinance the debt they carry.

The Los Angeles Clippers

No team catches more flak for inept management than the Los Angeles Clippers.  The Clippers have been perpetually trapped in the Draft Lottery, seen a series of talented players fail to develop, and free agents who fail to earn their contracts.  Its not so much that there is a culture of losing, but there is attitude of fiscal responsibility that pervades the entire organization from the owner on down.  Winning simply is not the highest priority, management knows it, so do the players, and the on court product suffers, so do the fans.

Contraction Through Expansion

The small market teams are struggling to compete with the larger markets, and as the NBA waits for the economy for turn, it’s only going to get tougher.  Contraction is last thing that David Stern wants to have on his resume, but there is a unique solution to this problem.  Take the twenty best markets, as league one, then the remaining ten paired with ten new markets for league two (there are 12 markets that support a NFL team, but do not have a NBA team).  League one would play an eight team playoff for the NBA title, with the bottom two teams being relegated to league two.  League two would play a four team playoff with the winner and the team with the best regular season record moving up to league one.  League one would have a soft cap around $50 million, and a hard cap at $60 million, while league two would have a soft cap at $35 million and a hard cap at $45 million.

NBA Stretch Run : The East

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Boston Celtics 36-19

Everything regrading this franchise has to be qualified with “when healthy” because that has been Boston’s biggest struggle over the past two seasons.  The Celtics have championship potential, but it there are simply to many obstacles to expect them to win the Eastern Conference Finals.  Kevin Garnett has faded from a 20 and 10 machine to a hobbled 14 points and 7 boards, but even in his deteriorated state his energy is essential to the Celtics defense.  Ray Allen is toying with career low stats across the board, and his 3 point shot isn’t as reliable as it once was.  Paul Pierce is the exact same story Allen, except that his 3 point shot is as good as ever.  Free agents Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels have not even really participated, Daniels has missed half the games so far, and while Wallace has actually played in almost every game, it’s hard to say that he’s actually been playing.  The flip-side is the young talent the Celtics have in Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins.  Rondo is having his best season so far with career highs in points, assists and steals, and Perkins is one of the best defensive centers in the NBA.  The signing of Wallace seems to have really widened the rift between the young stars, and the aged “Big Three”, and with everyone but Allen signed for at least next season it’s going to continue to cause chemistry problems for the Celtics.  The addition of Nate Robinson will add some punch to their bench, but it is not going to be enough to make them a serious threat to come out of the East.  The Celtics are going put up a serious fight regardless of who the end up facing, they have only dropped one game against their potential first round match-ups, but don’t expect to see Boston in the Conference Finals.

Player to watch : Rajon Rondo

Rondo is the Celtics best player putting up 14.0 points, 9.7 assists, 4.4 rebounds and a monster 2.5 steals a game, and he shoots an impressive .521 from the field.  Rondo had several huge performances in the playoffs last season, and Boston will only be a successful as their youngest star can be.

Toronto Raptors 31-24

After a tumultuous start Toronto has pulled it together, with a 24-13 record since December 1st.  Chris Bosh is averaging career highs in points and rebounds heading into free agency this summer.  Hedo Turkoglu’s numbers have been terrible, he’s had a lot of up and down performances, but his play may be affected by family issues.  The Raptors other big man, Andrea Bargnani, is also having a career year, solidifying him as a regular starter.  DeMar DeRozan has been a little disappointing, Toronto has desperately needed an athletic 2 guard, but DeRozan has looked a little shaky and is a defensive liability.  The point guard spot has become a regular quandary for the Raptors, who have been platooning players at the position for several seasons, the current combination of Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack is not much better than any of the others were.  The biggest weakness for the Raptors is their lack of a bench, Marco Belinelli is have a nice season, but when he’s your best bench player your in trouble.  Toronto looks to be headed for the fifth seed in the playoffs, where they will match-up against either Boston or Atlanta, teams that Toronto has not beaten so far this season.  Toronto is soft inside, neither Bosh or Bargnani are much of a defensive presence in the paint, bad defense paired with a thin bench will make Toronto a certain first round out, despite their recent improvement.

Player to watch : Hedo Turkoglu

Turkoglu has really struggled all season, and the Raptors desperately need production from him for them to have any chance in the playoffs.  Furthermore, the Raptors invested over $40 million over the next four years in Hedo, if Bosh opts out, which seems likely, Toronto won’t have the flexibility cap-wise to bring in someone to replace him, unless Bryan Colangelo can figure out a sign and trade.

Philadelphia 76ers 22-34

Philadelphia fans are rooting for other teams at this point, hopping to increase their lottery odds, and it’s understandable, given the fact that the 76ers are already at next years luxury tax threshold, the draft may be the only way to alter their roster.  This is another franchise that should consider firing everyone in the front office, choosing not to pursue re-signing Andre Miller, whose departure has devastated the 76ers, and the signing of Elton Brand before last season, who fits their offense even less without a point guard like Miller.  The return of Allen Iverson appears headed to a premature end, making the 76ers the third consecutive team to do so, and probably marking the end of Iverson’s NBA career.  Andre Iguodala’s shooting and scoring numbers are down, but he’s averaging career highs in assists and rebounds, and with Thaddeus Young and Maurice Speights, the 76ers have a good young core.  Philadelphia’s future may hinge on the development of rookie point guard Jrue Holiday, who at times looks like Rajon Rondo as a rookie, but without a ball handler other than Iguodala the 76ers are going to continue to struggle.  The 76ers should have been able to find a way to get into the playoffs with the talent they have, its a little surprising to see them struggle this badly.  Philadelphia is possible landing spot for Gilbert Arenas, an Arenas for Brand would solve issues for both teams, or a Arenas for the expiring contracts of Samuel Dalembert and Jason Kapono would provide salary cap relief for the Wizards.

Player to watch : Andre Iguodala

Iguodala is the team’s franchise player, and it was a good decision on the part of 76ers not to trade him.  His scoring is down this season, but he has compensated with 6.9 boards and 5.8 assists a game, the only forward who handles the ball more than Iguodala is LeBron.

New York Knicks 19-37

The Knicks unbelievably managed to get all the cap room they desired at the trade deadline, putting them in position to make a run at two max contract players.  It’s a huge gamble, but with so many free agents, almost half the league enters free agency with LeBron this summer, it may be possible to build a championship calibre team entirely through free agency.  With the top tier teams already monstrously over the luxury tax threshold and the cap shrinking next season the Knicks can establish themselves as the premiere free agent destination if they can land two of the max contract players.  However, if they can’t do that then all that cap room is either not going to get used or wasted on lesser talent.  Tracy McGrady may have already hurt himself in only his second appearance as a Knick, he needs to show he can still play, and play in a team concept, or possibly face exile like Allen Iverson faced last offseason.  David Lee and Al Harrington are the Knicks two best players, both are free agents, Harrington may be re-signable at a reduced cost, Lee is going to want to get paid for his production, but New York has been reluctant to sign him to a long year deal.  Whatever happens next year the Knicks will at least be out of the shadow of the Isaiah Thomas era (I saw him on TV last week saying that his real talent was being a GM not a coach, given his track record, if he says he is a better GM than a coach, why would anyone ever hire him as a coach?).  Regardless of new talent, Mike D’Antoni will never win a championship.

Player to watch : Wilson Chandler

There’s not much left on the Knicks roster after the flurry of cap space trades Donnie Walsh made right before the trade deadline.  Chandler is the only young talented player on the Knicks roster.

New Jersey Nets 5-52

Who keeps giving Kiki Vandewghe NBA jobs?  Why hasn’t congress assembled a panel to verbally abuse the worst general managers in basketball?  They’ve done it to the heads of other poorly run businesses, and something has to be done to protect the fans from front office decisions that cripple organizations with losing season after losing season.  The Nets are horrible even though they have several nice pieces in Devin Harris and Brook Lopez, but Harris has struggled shooting an abysmal .392, while Lopez has impressed and is possibly an All-Star in the making.  Not much of the remaining roster is returning next season, so expect an overhaul, but the Nets are unlikely to be able to lure a max contract player.  The Nets will have the best shot at the first pick in the draft lottery, which in and of itself would be a huge boost the franchise, but the lottery can be unkind, and with only a few franchise players in the draft New Jersey is desperate for that first pick.  Regardless, the Nets are going to be back in lottery next year.  Prediction : New Jersey will tie the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers worst ever record of 9-73.

Player to watch : Brook Lopez

This is easy, with Devin Harris struggling, and with virtually nothing else on the roster, Lopez is having a fantastic sophomore season.  Averaging 19.1 points and 8.9 rebounds, New Jersey can look forward to Lopez being a 20 and 10 franchise player for years to come.

CENTRAL DIVISION

Cleveland Cavaliers 44-14

The Cavs have the best record in the NBA, and signs point to a Lakers vs. Cavs Finals, but at this point last season everybody was thinking the exact same thing.  What is most impressive about the Cavaliers is that, like the Lakers, they have played at a really high level despite many set-backs.  The season began with Delonte West El Mariachi incident, and the incorporation of Shaquille O’Neal, West has continued to be in and out of the lineup, but Shaq has slowly found his niche, and hopefully playing him limited minutes will mean he’ll be at his best in the playoffs.  Furthermore, the Cavs have dealt with injuries, most notably Mo Williams.  The deadline trade for Anatwan Jamison, was coup for Danny Ferry, who has struggled to put a strong team around LeBron.  Luckily the NBA won’t stop Zydrunas Ilgauskas from return to Cleveland when he is bought out by the Wizards, but in the future that trade loop hole should be closed because the Cavs got Jamison for essentially nothing.  Leon Powe will return from injury this week, giving Cleveland added depth in the front court.  However, the same questions from the Orlando series linger with the Cavaliers, Orlando will still be a tough match-up, but their potential first round match-up against the Bobcats is a nightmare.  Reminiscent of the Golden State/Dallas 8 vs 1 match-up a few years back, Charlotte has beaten the Cavs all three meetings this season, with Cleveland struggling again to match-up against two large perimeter players, which appears to be their kryptonite.  Cavs fans need to root for either a Bobcats win streak to raise their seed or a losing streak to end their playoff hopes because there is no way that Cleveland face Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson again.  There is no doubt that the Cavs have to be favorites in the East, and if they reach the Finals they should be able to topple the Lakers, and they might make it look easy, but only if they avoid series against the Bobcats, Magic and Nuggets, all of whom could beat Cleveland in a seven game series.

Player to watch : LeBron James

LeBron is the best player in basketball, and remarkably he continues to improve each season.  This year he has a career high in points 30.0 and assists 8.4, and is shooting over .500 from the field for the first time in his career, but if he intends to shoot five 3 point shots a game he needs to shoot better than .350 from beyond the arc.  Another MVP title seems to be in his future, but without a title it might not seem justified.

Chicago Bulls 29-27

In back to back seasons the Bulls have been one of the more active teams at the trade deadline, last year adding Brad Miller and John Salmons to push them into the playoffs, this year Chicago moved out more talent than they brought in, sending Salmons and Tyrus Thomas away for expiring contracts.  The offseason decision to not re-sign Ben Gordon really hurt the Bulls’ offensive effectiveness, but to keep him Chicago would have had to overpay, and the team is on pace to better it’s record from last season.  The salary dump before the deadline will allow the Bulls to pursue a max contract player, Chris Bosh seems like their target.  The Bulls are clearly thinking more about the future than the playoffs this year, where they could match-up against Boston again, the most exciting series from last year’s playoffs.  Even if the the Bulls don’t make much noise this year, the future is bright for Bulls fans.  Point guard Derrick Rose is scoring almost 20 points a game, and was named to his first All-Star game.  Joakim Noah has slowly developed into an effective big man, averaging better than 10 points and 11 boards a game, after looking lost in his first two years, and rookie Taj Gibson has been a major contributor, making easier for the Bulls to finally part ways with Thomas.  Without Gordon or Salmons is hard to imagine the Bulls making much if any noise in the playoffs, but a Rajon Rondo vs Derrick Rose first round match-up would be a great showcase for two of the best young guards in basketball.

Player to watch : Derrick Rose

Without Rose the Bulls would be a cellar team, and his increased scoring has kept them competitive, and landed them some marquee wins.  Rose is going to have to be epic for the Bulls to have any chance in the playoffs, but the team is definitely more focused on next year.

Milwaukee Bucks 27-28

Only in the East can a team be under .500 and still make the playoffs.  The Bucks are battling with Charlotte for the last playoff spot in the East.  It would be a major coup for Milwaukee to make the playoffs considering the roster that they are working with.  Brandon Jennings has impressed as a rookie, a healthy Andrew Bogut is putting up career highs in points 16.0, boards 10.4 and blocks 2.3, and Luke Ridnour is having a great season as a role-player.  However, Michael Redd suffered another season ending injury, putting his NBA career in jeopardy, and the rest of the roster is weak, with Carlos Delfino, Charlie Bell and Ersan Ilyasova all having to play lots of minutes.  The trade deadline addition of John Salmons gives them some desperately needed offense, but that may not be enough to keep them ahead of the Charlotte Bobcats.

Player to watch : Brandon Jennings

The Michael Redd era may be over, so it will be up to Jennings to take over the franchise, he is still really rough around the edges, but he has shown enough maturity to believe he will continue to develop.

Detroit Pistons 21-35

A playoff stalwart for most of the previous decade, which made Joe Dumars the toast of NBA general managers, now they are looking at a future of lottery picks, and judging by Dumars genius decision to draft Darko Millic over Carmelo Anthony, Detroit fans have every right to be nervous about their franchise’s future.  Richard Hamilton is still putting up good numbers, but he’s much less efficient in getting those numbers.  Hamilton is under contract for another three years at $12.6 million a season, a contract that Dumars would love to move, but at 32 years old there might not be much of market unless the Celtics like him as a Ray Allen replacement.  Tayshaun Prince has fallen off quite a bit, and is another player that Dumars wants to move, his contract expires next season, but Dumars would certainly have to take back a bad contract in any effort to move him.  Knicks fans can look at Detroit as their worse case scenario heading into free agency, Detroit had the most cap room last season, but could only end up with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villaneva, over payed for both of them, and not surprisingly their numbers are way down.  The worst thing for the Pistons is that Jason Maxiell is apparently eating his way through his $20 million contract.  On the positive side, Rodney Stuckey is one of the best young guards that no one talks about, and rookie Swede Jonas Jerebko is having one of biggest impacts out of the second round of the draft.

Player to watch : Rodney Stuckey

Stuckey is averaging career highs across the board now that he has cemented himself as a starter, with little to no offense from the front court, both Stuckey and Hamilton have had a heavy scoring load and that may have driven their shooting percentages down.

Indiana Pacers 19-37

The Pacers are headed back to lottery, hoping for some magic because their roster is a wasteland after star forward Danny Granger.  Granger is fantastic, but he is constantly nagged by injuries.  Almost the entire roster is under contract next season, so Pacers fans will have to endure another rough season in 2010-11, however, after that Granger, Dahntay Jones and AJ Price are the only players under contract.  This team really should have moved Murphy, because without his rebounding the Pacers would have probably lost every game for the remainder of the season, improving their lottery position, which seems to be the strategy at this point.

Player to watch : Danny Granger

Granger was an All-Star last season, but again he has been hurt by injuries, limiting his effectiveness.  The Pacers have to figure out a way keep him on the court, because without the franchise player on the court this team is never going to develop.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

Orlando Magic 38-19

The Magic spent a lot of money this offseason to remake the roster of team that won the Eastern Conference last year.  Vince Carter is huge upgrade over Courtney Lee, and while the loss of Hedo Turkoglu hurt the teams fourth quarter chemistry, Hedo hasn’t been playing very well this year anyway.  Carter has become increasingly comfortable in Orlando, and after a long series of rotation experiments to figure out how to use Orlando’s new pieces, it seems like Stan Van Gundy is finally content with what he has.  Losing Rafer Alston may have been a bigger loss than Turkoglu, Orlando’s offense was much more fluid with Alston in the playoffs, and while Alston is a terrible point guard, his style is perfect for a rebound machine like Dwight Howard.  The Magic still match-up favorably with the Cavs, but the Lakers still represent a problem with their formidable size.  Expect the Magic to muscle their way past the Celtics, and meet the Cavs in an Eastern Conference Finals rematch.

Player to watch : Dwight Howard

When Howard is dominant, the Magic are dominant, but Howard has failed to develop a balanced enough offensive game to be consistently dominant at both ends of the court.  The Magic can beat the Cavs in a seven game series, but only if Howard can step up.

Atlanta Hawks 35-20

Two years ago the Hawks made the playoffs, last year they made the second round, so the question is can they topple one of the big three in the East?  Maybe.  The addition of Jamal Crawford has changed the dynamic of this team, accepting coming off the bench to give the Hawks the best sixth man in the league.  Both Josh Smith and Al Horford are having career years, and both of them should have been All-Stars (Smith was left off the All-Star Team).  Led by Joe Johnson this team seems to have everything they need to compete with the best teams in the league.  However, Atlanta does lack depth in the front court, they match-up great against the Celtics, but it hard to imagine the Hawks toppling either the Magic or the Cavs.  This team is young, and if Atlnata can re-sign Joe Johnson this summer, this team will make a Finals appearance sooner rather than later.

Player to watch : Joe Johnson

The only shooting guards better than Johnson are Kobe and Wade. Johnson has been playing an absurd number of minutes, and with Crawford on the bench, he has played a few less minutes each game. It hasn’t hurt Johnson’s numbers, and Crawford has given the Hawks another creative scorer.

Miami Heat 29-29

It’s been a rough year for the Heat, it appears that they will limp into the playoffs, but they are not going to have much of a say once they get there.  This team will get a major overhaul this summer, with enough cap room to re-sign Dwyane Wade and another max contract player.  In fact the Heat only have two players under contract next season, Michael Beasley and Daequan Cook, so Wade is going to be playing with a bunch of new faces, and with so many free agents available, the Heat could make a major turn around next season.  Beasley remains an enigma, there’s definitely a lot of talent there, but there isn’t a lot of improvement, his numbers are only marginally better than his rookie season, and he is seeing seven more minutes per night.  Beasley may have already reached his ceiling, at least in the environment he’s in, being moved to a smaller market on team with different expectations might be the best thing for him.  Dwyane Wade seemed to dial it back a little this season, realizing that the team wasn’t going to make a title run, which was disappointing, the Heat should be better than .500.

Player to watch : Dwyane Wade

Not exactly playing at an MVP level this season, but still one of the top five players in the league.

Charlotte Bobcats 27-28

Charlotte has yet to make the playoffs, and this might be the year they break through.  Larry Brown and Michael Jordan have been tinkering with the roster all season, landing Stephen Jackson for practically nothing, and adding Tyrus Thomas at the trade deadline.  Gerald Wallace is having a career year, making his first All-Star Game, and leading the team in rebounding.  The Bobcats should have enough to get the last playoff spot, which would put them in a first round match-up against the Cavs, who they have defeated all three meetings this season.  Which could end up being the best first round series, in a year where the top seeds will likely cruise in their first round series’.

Player to watch : Stephen Jackson

Jackson is one of the most talented perimeter players in the league, and at his size he is a serious match-up problem.  If the Bobcats can make the playoffs, his team can rely on his experience in upsetting the one seeded Dallas Mavericks a few years back.

Washington Wizards 20-34

After the season the Wizards have endure some lottery magic would go a long way to softening the destruction of this team.  After the suspension of Gilbert Arenas, the front office has elected to quite literally blow the team up, something they should have done two years ago, before they signed Arenas to a huge long term contract.  Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson and Brendan Haywood have all been shipped out for little more than cap relief.  Josh Howard the only usable peice they acquired promptly tore his ACL, and is out for the season.  If they elect not to use the team option of Howard, the Wizards will have a lot of cap room to work with, but it’s hard to imagine that they could bring in better talent.  The Wizards had gone as far as they could with the core that they had been relying on for several years, this break up was inevitable, and if they can move Arenas then they can really start this franchise over.

Player to watch : Randy Foye

If anyone is watching…

NBA Stretch Run – The West

SOUTHWEST DIVISION

Dallas Mavericks 35-21

The Mavericks made the most impressive trade deadline move by acquiring Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood for Josh Howard.  Howard entered the league with a great deal of promise, but his behavior and injuries have slowed his career to a crawl.  The Mavs have been missing a piece to put them over the top, and they have been waiting for Howard to evolve into the guy, and had been reluctant to trade him in the past.  Butler gives them the perimeter presence that they desperately  needed, and Haywood is a huge upgrade over Erick Dampier.  The Mavericks gave up some of their depth to complete this trade, and probably hope for a Drew Gooden buyout, so they can bring him back for the playoffs.  Dirk Nowitzki is having another amazing season, Sean Marion has embraced his role more than he has in the past, and despite his age and diminished numbers, Jason Kidd is still more effective than most point guard in the league.  Rick Carlisle should be able to incorporate his new talent, and the Mavs should meet Denver in the second round of the playoffs, expect a monster series, but whomever emerges may not have enough to topple the Lakers. What’s the odds on DeShawn Stevenson staying out of trouble for the remainder of the season in Dallas?

Player to watch : Caron Butler

Arguably the best player the Wizards had, and one of the most overlooked perimeter players in the league.  He can play at either wing spot, giving Dallas the ability to play big with him at the 2, and small with him at the 3.  Hopefully he can stay healthy which has derailed him in the past.

San Antonio Spurs 31-23

San Antonio had a magnificent run in the first decade of this century, winning three NBA Championships, but the era of dominance for this core group is at an end.  Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are both nearing the end of their careers, and with their increasingly limited abilities, Tony Parker’s inability to be the team’s centerpiece is exposed.  Richard Jefferson still hasn’t been able to figure out his role on this team, and the rotation players are not as effective as they once were, San Antonio’s bench has always been a strength.  DeJuan Blair was the steal of the draft, and George Hill continues to develop into a good utility guard, without their contributions the Spurs would still be floundering around .500.  If San Antonio can get a four or five seed in the playoffs they may be able to sneak into the second round, but that would only mean that the Lakers would hammer them.

Player to watch : Tim Duncan

Duncan is possibly the best power forward of all time, but this season has been a struggle.  He has played limited minutes some nights, and sat out the second game in back to backs.  San Antonio has a serious front court weakness, so Duncan is going to have fill that void if San Antonio is wants to advance in the playoffs.

Houston Rockets 28-27

The Rockets seemed like they were headed to the playoffs again this season, but they have stumbled into the All-Star break.  Tracy McGrady has finally been moved, and in the Rockets received Kevin Martin in return.  Martin is a scorer, which Houston sorely needed, especially in late game situations.  Houston also acquired Jared Jefferies and Jordan Hill both of whom will see playing time, but lost Carl Landry, who had developed into a key rotation player over the last two seasons.  The Rockets biggest problem is their defense, and Jefferies is one of the better perimeter defenders, and hopefully the new additions will spark some more inspired play.  Ultimately the Rockets playoff hopes hinge on wether Phoenix and Portland collapse down the stretch, and they will probably finish as the last team out.

Player to watch : Aaron Brooks

Trading Rafer Alston was the best move Houston has made in several years, and the result is the emergence of a young talented point guard in Aaron Brooks.  However, for Houston to be a serious contender, Brooks is going to have to elevate his level of play, and more importantly become more consistent, it will interesting to see how he adapts to playing with Martin, who handles the ball a lot for a shooting gaurd.

New Orleans 30-26

Chris Paul is hurt,  New Orleans is done.  Barring a lottery miracle, or some serious tankage, New Orleans will not have a very enticing draft pick, and will still have many holes to fill with little cap space to work with.  Rookies Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton have been a pleasant surprise, and have ample playing time with Paul’s injury.  Beyond that the team is a disaster.  David West is well on his way to another Weberesque season of meaningless stats.  Offseason addition Emeka Okafor is having his worst season, and Hornets fans can look forward to seeing him for another four seasons, in the 2013-14 season New Orleans will being paying him $15.5 million for 8 points and 6 six rebounds.  Peja Stojakovic and Morris Peterson are healthy for once, but combined, they only average 18.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.2 assists at a cost of $20.4 million this season, and at age 33 both players will be under contract next season for $21.9 million.  James Posey has just been mailing it in this year, having turned two successful title runs as a sixth man into a multi-year contract two seasons ago.  Julian Wright has not showed much potential to develop into a rotation player, and the rest of the roster are players pulled out of retirement in an effort to keep costs down.  Everyone in the front office should be fired, and sell the team to someone, anyone else because this team is going to be trending down for several years after finishing second in a very competitive west only two seasons ago.  Although, if they were still in Charlotte, and the Eastern Conference they would be a playoff team.

Player to watch : Darren Collison

I wasn’t convinced Collison had what it takes to be a serious NBA contributor, but he has been one of the few bright spots for the Hornets.

Memphis Grizzlies 28-27

Memphis has been the most interesting story of the year.  At first it was for the car wreck that the beginning of the season was.  Iverson signed right before the season, Iverson released right after the season began.  But after a rocky start the young Grizzlies are on the verge of being playoff contenders, and are one of the more exciting teams to watch.  Rudy Gay is finally playing at an All-Star level, he needs to rebound better, but at least he has started playing defense.  OJ Mayo has been surprisingly willing to accept being the third option, even though he is a star in the making in his own right.  But the real story has been the evolution of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.  Zach is putting up 20 and 10 like always, but in order to get those numbers he doesn’t have to suffocate the rest of the offense for the first time in his career, and luckily the young guns have accepted that Zach gets to eat first.  Marc Gasol is closing in on his brother’s(All-Star Pau Gasol) numbers, and may eventually end up a 20-10 guy just like Randolph.  Unfortunately Mike Conley isn’t ever going to develop into a legitimate starting point guard, and the Grizzlies need to address that position this offseason.  Rookie Hasheem Thabeet has looked about as ineffective as Greg Oden, at least Thabeet can get on the court without shattering (as a rookie Thabeet is actually the third highest paid Grizzly, making more than both Mayo and Gay).  The bench is the biggest weakness, the Grizzlies just don’t have enough depth, and thats one of the reasons they get completely killed on the road.  Memphis won’t make the playoffs this season, but for the first time in a while they are at least trending up, and a few good moves could put them in the playoffs next season.  Rudy Gay is a restricted free agent ($4.4 million qualifying offer), with all the other free agents this summer, hopefully Memphis can keep Gay without having to overpay for him.

Player to watch : Zach Randolph

Z-bo an All-Star?  It actually happened, and he actually deserved it.  One of the more interesting stories of the season, after everyone hammered general manager Chris Wallace for trading for him.

NORTHWEST DIVISION

Denver Nuggets 37-19

Carmelo Anthony is LeBron James’ only real competition for MVP, LeBron will win it, but if Carmelo may be able to steal enough votes to make it interesting if he plays his best basketball down the stretch.  Furthermore, the Nuggets appear to be the only real competition to the Lakers in the Western Conference.  The only problem is consistency, Denver struggles to play at a high level at both ends of the court not just from game to game, but sometimes quarter to quarter.  Carmelo is playing at level that moves him past Kobe Bryant and DeWayne Wade to be the second best player in the league, and Chauncey Billups continues to be the most valuable player that nobody talks about.  However, beyond those two there are a lot of questions, Kenyon Martin, Nene and Aaron Afflalo round out a nice starting five, but the bench doesn’t have the punch it did last season.  JR Smith is probably the best scorer in the league that doesn’t start, but putting him in late game situations pulls a perimeter defender off the court, and Ty Lawson is one of the biggest surprises to come out of the draft, but his lack of experience will hurt the team in the playoffs, probably opening up more playing time for Anthony Carter.  The front court rotation players are the real problem, Denver needed to make an addition before the trade deadline because they are left with Chris Anderson, Malik Allen and Johan Petro to back-up Martin and Nene.  The Lakers size advantage and the Nuggets inconsistency are going to kill Denver’s chances in a seven game series, and now that the Mavericks have bolstered their roster they may get tangled in a tough seven game series with Dallas, but when Denver plays it’s best they can and have beat the best in NBA.

Player to watch : Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo may be runner up for MVP, but he’s playing at the highest level of his career.  A recent shoot out with the Cavs illustrated how good Melo really is, when he made several clutch shots to beat LeBron on his home floor.

Utah Jazz 36-19

Utah has somehow snuck it’s way to the third best record in the West, but considering Utah chose to ship it’s starting shooting gaurd to Memphis for nothing, in order to avoid the luxury tax, the Jazz may not be able to hold onto that loft position.  Utah, as always, has a dominant record at home 22-7, but struggles on the road 12-12.  Ronnie Brewer was not putting up starting 2-guard numbers, but with him gone the Jazz are left with a 10 day contact player, and a rookie to fill that void.  Sundiata Gaines (the 10 day contract player) had the best moment of the season, when on the last day of his contract he hit a game winning shot to beat the Cavs in Utah, the Jazz elected to sign him to another 10 day contract, and then ultimately signed him for the rest of the season.  But the fact that Utah decided to move Brewer, Eric Maynor and Matt Harpring without getting anything in return indicates that despite recent success, the Jazz don’t consider themselves anything more than a first round wash out, and thats exactly what will happen to them.  However, the future could be brighter, they have over $20 million coming of their books in consecutive seasons, allowing the Jazz to reorganize around a new coach, after long time coach Jerry Sloan inevitably retires.

Player to watch : Deron Williams

Picking the best point guard in the league has become tricky over the last few seasons with a wealth of young talent at the position, but it has to Deron Williams, he has the best blend of all the skills and intangibles needed to be an elite point guard.  Hopefully he can get a better blend of talent around him next year.

Oklahoma City Thunder 33-21

The Thunder are not exactly a huge surprise, but they are going to make the playoffs a year earlier than I expected.  They have been up and down, which is to be expected of a team that is so young, but what is surprising is that this team is competitive against the best teams in the league, and as long as they can stay in the sixth spot or better in the West they could be a dangerous first round opponent, possibly dragging a superior team to seven games, like the upstart Bulls did to the Celtics last season.  Kevin Durrant will probably get some MVP votes, and has a shot at the scoring title, and there is so much he can improve on still.  Durrant’s passing is getting better all the time, and his defense awareness is improving, he seemed lost at times in previous seasons.  Russell Westbrook is quickly becoming another exciting young guard, but still needs to develop as a true point guard which may never completely happen.  James Harden and Jeff Green round out a great young core, but after that there isn’t much to work with, just a whole bench full of journeymen.  The front court is especially weak, and consistent rebounding can be a problem for the Thunder.  The Thunder have been careful with assembling this roster, and have three contracts expiring this summer(Nick Collison at $6.75 million is the biggest contract they have next season), they don’t need a max contract player (they have Durrant), but if they could sign several role players they could rapidly become a contender just like the Cavs turn around.

Player to watch : Kevin Durrant

Durrant in the playoffs is going to be great, possibly against Carmelo and the Nuggets in the first round, the two best scorers in the NBA going at it.  Carmelo is making the transition to an all around player, hopefully Durrant will evolve the same way.

Portland Trailblazers 32-26

Portland is just barley hanging on to the last playoff spot, which is miraculous considering that nearly every player on the opening day roster has been injured at some point this season.  Greg Oden is done for the season again, and at this point a viable NBA career seems unlikely, his back up Joel Pryzbilla is out for the season as well.  At the trade deadline Portland sent Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake to the Clippers for Marcus Camby.  Camby is a great addition, but they gave up their two best three  point shooters, and will keep their rotation abbreviated, but given their injuries the Trailblazers should be used that by now.  They are going to miss the offense of Outlaw and Blake, leaving Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless and Nicolas Batum to make up those missing points, something they have struggled to do in the past.  If Brandon Roy can stay healthy the Trailblazers will limp into the playoffs, and play the Lakers in the first round, which lucky for them is a team they’ve had decent success against.

Player to watch : Brandon Roy

He’s an All-Star, and it’s going to be all on him to get this team into the playoffs, but he’ll probably need help from the teams chasing Portland, especially the Rockets who might get hot with new addition Kevin Martin.

Minnesota Timberwolves 13-44

Why did Kurt Rambis take this job?  Bad team, small market and a horrible general manager, at least they have cap space after acquiring a horde of expiring contracts.  Minnesota is the worst team in West, and there are not many bright spots to inspire hope in Timberwolves fans.  Al Jefferson has All-Star potential, but he hasn’t quite convinced me that he’s ever going to get to that level that demands a max contract, in fact his less talented front court mate Kevin Love is statistically the better player, and needs the ball a lot less to get his numbers.  Johnny Flynn has had some good spells as a rookie point guard, and expect him to be the long time answer at that position for Minnesota.  Corey Brewer looks like he starting to develop into a decent NBA player, but it’s hard to envision him as a starter.  The bizarre signing of Ramon Sessions hasn’t worked out very well, and Ryan Gomes continues to struggle to find a role.  The rest of the roster is essentially irrelevant.  Until someone has the good sense to fire team president David Kahn this franchise will be lottery regulars, and just like anyone who plays the lottery on the regular, you are not going to win very often.

Player to watch : Kevin Love

There isn’t anything fancy about Kevin Love’s game, but he is putting up impressive numbers for a player who seems to lack a great deal of physical gifts.  I would certainly rather have him on my roster than Al Jefferson, plus he’s a lot cheaper.

PACIFIC DIVISION

Los Angeles Lakers 42-14

The Lakers are still the prohibitive favorite to win the NBA Finals, but there are certainly questions about how heavy a favorite they are at this point in the season.  Kobe Bryant has been dealing with several nagging injuries all season, and recently he reluctantly sat out several games because of an ankle.  Ron Artest has proven that he is no longer an elite defensive force, which has forced Kobe to spend an increasing amount of time guarding the other team’s best player, which Trevor Ariza did so effectively last year.  The huge front line of Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom have not looked dominant against the best teams in the league, and still appear to lack the toughness that is expected of them.  Shannon Brown has taken advantage of his expanded role, but the rest of the bench has been m.i.a. for most of the season.  The Cavs beat the Lakers in both meetings this season, and Denver and the new look Mavs might even push the Lakers in the Conference Finals.

Player to watch : Kobe Bryant

Kobe has seemed to become increasingly irritated by the performance of his teammates, and that has been a recipe for disaster in the past, the more he tries to shoulder the load, the less effective the surrounding talent becomes, he needs to instill a sense of confidence in the role players because it doesn’t look like they have it right now.

Phoenix Suns 34-23

The Suns were an early season surprise, and are headed toward the playoffs, but they have certainly cooled in the second half of the season, and taken advantage of playing in a very weak division.  Steve Nash is one of the most overrated players in NBA history, but his play at his age is simply amazing, and continues to be one of the elite point guards in the league.  Amare Stoudamire is still an offensive beast, Grant Hill is still playing at a high level, and the emergence of Channing Frye has him inline to be most improved player this year.  However, the diminishing returns of both Jason Richardson and Leandro Barbosa and bench that can contribute little will limit the potential of Phoenix to make any noise in the playoffs, it will be another first round exit for the Suns.  Looking forward Phoenix will almost certainly have the same team next season, unless Steve Kerr can package the expiring contracts of Richardson and Barbosa (a $7 million player option will make Barbosa hard to trade), or finally pull the trigger on an Amare deal.  There are many terrible NBA general managers and team presidents, but Kerr deserves special criticism for trying to trade his franchise player for two straight seasons, not to mention trading away his best defensive talent two years ago before hiring Terry Porter, a defensive minded head coach.  Amare will exercise his player option for next season, and Kerr will probably explore trading him again, but i wouldn’t be shocked if Amare somehow ended up with an extension from the Suns.  Alvin Gentry is a pretty good coach, but he’s going to need better talent, but Kerr doesn’t have a lot of cap room and won’t have a lottery pick to work with this offseason.

Player to watch : Steve Nash

Still playing at a high level even though he’s thirty-six, putting up numbers that better his 2004-05 MVP season, and doing it with less talent around him.  So maybe Steve Kerr wasn’t crazy for signing Nash until he’s thirty-eight, maybe.

Los Angeles Clippers 22-33

Blake Griffin has a career dampening injury that delayed his debut, and then the inevitable season ending surgery, plus the percentages favor Griffin being hampered by injuries.  People are going to be desperate to see Griffin have a breakout season next year, but coming off surgery his goals should be 65 games and 25 minutes a night, and stay healthy so he can breakout in the 2011-12 season.  On the plus side Mike Dunleavy is no longer head coach, which is a highlight in the history of many franchises.  The Clippers are heading into the lottery again, and hopefully they can continue their recent draft success (Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan and Griffin), and pick up another contributing piece.  Center Chris Kaman made his first All-Star Game, and Gordon is having a great season, but those are the only pieces to build around.  Al Thornton has been shipped out for cap relief, and as good a role player Rasual Butler is, he and Craig Smith are not starters in this league, but ultimately they are hamstrung by the fading star of Baron Davis.  Davis numbers have shrunk as his beard has grown, some sort of reverse sampson effect, he can’t carry a team anymore, nor can he really compete with the leagues top point guards over an 82 game season.  Davis is under contract for three more seasons, but he’s only 31, so if they can lighten the load on him, they could make a playoff run with him at the helm.

Player to watch : Eric Gordon

An excellent sophomore scorer, not much of a passer, but is a decent under sized defender.  Gordon definitely has room to grow, especially as a play maker, and rebounder.  His future will certainly depend on which, if any of the max contract free agents chose the lesser Los Angeles club home.

Sacramento Kings 18-38

The re-emergence of Paul Wesphal looked like it could be a fairy-tale early in the season as the Kings toyed with .500 basketball, but the bottom has fallen out and the Kings will certainly be picking high in the lottery this summer.  Tyreke Evans has been phenomenal, and will be Rookie of The Year, and after Kevin Martin’s trade, he is going to be the franchise player for years to come.  The unfortunate part of the Kevin Martin deal, is that all they got in return was Carl Landry and expiring contracts.  Carl Landry is a fantastic rotation player, but he has already reached his ceiling.  The cap space is nice, but it’s unlikely they can get a top tier free agent, which is probably best they have several unfortunate contracts to deal with in years to come.  Beyond Evans, Omri Casspi has been the most interesting player on the Kings, being the first Israeli born NBA player has earned him quite a following, and his tenacious attitude has made an impression in the NBA.  The Kings also have two decent big men in Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes, so there are pieces to build around.  Sacramento’s record should earn them another high draft pick, perhaps continue to draft out of the Calipari pipeline by selecting DeMarcus Cousins.

Player to watch : Tyreke Evans

Evans had obvious NBA talent in his one year at Memphis, he’s big and strong for a guard, putting up 20.1 points, 5.3 assists, and  4.8 rebounds.  The flip side, 3 turnovers a game and he doesn’t have a 3 point shot.  Evans will be a top 5 guard by next year.

Golden State Warriors 16-39

Don Nelson is a good coach, but after one exciting playoff run, with an upset of Finals favorite Dallas in 2006-07, Golden State has devolved into madness.  The season started with team captain, Stephen Jackson, demanding a trade, which he received.  However, the Warriors were forced to give him up for the expiring contract of Raja Bell, and Vladimir Radmanovic (who has a player option next year for $6.8 million), Bell played only once, and Radmanovic contributes little, while Jackson is leading Charlotte into the Playoffs.  Rookie Stephan Curry has impressed as an offensive threat, and fits in nicely with a team that runs and plays no defense.  They have a lot of young players with potential, but it doesn’t seem like Golden State is a place where talent develops, if Nelson has the right pieces to play with he can win a lot of games, but he can’t grow players to fill roles.  The Warriors are not going to have flexibility to make many changes to the roster unless they can convince someone to move on Corey Maggette or Andris Biedrins.  Golden State does have a great scorer in Monta Ellis, Maggette is putting up 20 pre game, and has interesting young players (Anthony Randolph, Anthony Morrow and Anthony Tolliver), but Brendan Wright seems to be a write off at this point, and Biedrins who was effective, has evaporated, so they are going to need more than just another lottery pick to get back into the playoffs.

Player to watch : Monta Ellis

Ellis is averaging career highs in points 25.8, assists 5.4 and steals 2.2, and leads the team in all those categories, he also has career high 4.2 turnovers per game, he also leads the team in that category too.  He’s also got an incredibly affordable contract at $11 million a season for three more season.

NBA Season Preview Part 2 : The East

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics
The Celtics were unable to defend their title effectively without Kevin Garnett. Garnett is back, along with new additions, Rasheed Wallace, Marquis Daniels and Shelden Williams. The Celtics should be the favorite to emerge from the East, but as hard as they fought last season, they have concerns beyond Garnett’s knees. Garnett (33), Paul Pierce (32) and Ray Allen (34) are all showing signs of decline, Eddie House outplayed Ray Allen in last years playoff run. Marquis Daniels doesn’t exactly fit the Celtics style, but if Allen continues to disappoint, then it’s going to be on him to carry the load offensively and defensively at the 2 guard spot. The bright side is that young guard Rajon Rondo continues to impress. Boston will cruise to the second round of the playoffs, if they finish with the best record in the East, then they will cruise to the Eastern Confrence Finals, and if the veterans have enough left in the tank they should meet the Lakers in the NBA Finals.

Player to watch : Rajon Rondo
He was the Celtics’ best player last season, and he looks more focused than ever this season. He can score, and he can distribute, don’t be surprised if he makes his first All-Star Team.

New Jersey Nets
Devin Harris is going to have to shoulder a large load now that Vince Carter is in Orlando. Brook Lopez has shown potential as a center, and new addition Courtney Lee is a good young shooting guard. The rest of the team is a mess, half of the bench is over 30, and the younger players aren’t developing very well (Yi Jianlan). They’ve acquired several expiring contracts (Bobby Simmons $11.2 million contract is the biggest on the team), so it looks like management is content to head back to the lottery, and make a play for a big name free agent next summer.

Player to watch : Devin Harris
Harris is the only reason to buy tickets this season in Jersey. He made his first All-Star team last year, he should continue to impress.

New York Knicks
The Knicks are not unlike the Nets, except that the Nets at least have an All-Star on their roster. There is no first option for scoring, and there isn’t any defense to at least keep them in games. Nate Robinson can create for himself, and is exciting to watch in the fourth quarter, but beyond that the roster is void of talent. David Lee can grab a bunch of rebounds, but who couldn’t on a team that misses so many shots. Al Harrington doesn’t seem to fit very well in anyone’s system. Another 30 win season is probably the best Mike Dantoni can hope for, and don’t expect that to lure LeBron away from Cleveland. The two highest paid players on this team Eddy Curry ($10.5 million) and Larry Hughes ($13.6 million) probably won’t see much of any playing time. The Knicks also won’t have their lottery pick in next years draft, so all this losing is going to hurt that much more.

Player to watch : Nate Robinson
There isn’t anyone else to pick, and it’s probably 50/50 he’ll get traded during the year.

Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers could challenge the Hawks for the number 4 slot in the East, and if they hope to advance out of the first round they better not finish worse than 5th. Elton Brand wasn’t producing last season, then he got hurt, and the team got better with more minutes going to Marreese Speights and Thaddeus Young. The 76ers could have signed Josh Smith, which would have given the Sixers the most imposing young front court, instead of signing Brand until he’s 34. Mo Cheeks was fired early last season, Tony DiLeo replaced him and managed to get the club into the playoffs. DiLeo has returned to the front office, and it will up to new coach Eddie Jordan to integrate Brand into the 76ers offense. Andre Miller left for Portland, leaving no obvious solution at point guard, but Portland overpaid, and thats a mistake Philadelphia was wise not to make again. Louis Williams will probably start at the point, but expect Andre Iguodala to be the primary ball handler. Eddie Jordan’s coaching style doesn’t need a traditional point gaurd, and should work decently with Elton Brand playing center. They don’t have a lot of flexibility to make any changes, unless they can convince someone to trade for Samuel Dalembert and his $12 million contract.

Player to watch : Marreese Speights
One of the more impressive rookies from last year in only limited minutes. He’s part of an impressive young core with Young and Iguodala. Expect bigger things from all three this season.

Toronto Raptors
Raptors need to improve by 8 wins to make the playoffs this season. They overpaid for a 30 year old Hedo Turkoglu, and his 16 points and 5 rebounds a game isn’t really any better than the 14 points and 8 boards that Shawn Marion was producing. Spending all that money decimated their bench, but leaves opportunity for summer league king Marco Belinelli to actually get some NBA minutes. The Turkoglu acquisition indicates the Raptors intend to copy the Magic’s formula for success, but with the lack of the defensive focus that made the Magic so good, the Raptors will probably look a lot more like the run and gun Suns teams. DeMar Derozan was an excellent pick up in the draft, and fills a glaring need at shooting gaurd. Amir Johnson will get minutes after being buried on the Pistons bench for years, and should put up solid numbers. Chris Bosh should have a big year, and if the bench can hold its own, Toronto should sneak into the playoffs at around .500.

Player to watch : DeMar DeRozan
He’s got the size and athleticism to be an elite shooting guard in the NBA, but he was inconsistent in college. He’s going to get a ton of minutes right away, but if the preseason is any indication, it might take him a while to shine.

Central Division

Chicago Bulls
The Bulls made the best in season moves of any team last year. The additions of John Salmons and Brad Miller paid immediate dividends, and Chicago surged into the playoffs, eventually losing to Celtics in an epic seven game first round series. But Chicago lost their leading scorer, Ben Gordon, in the offseason, and failed to replace him. Luol Deng will be coming back from injury, and will have to return to 06-07 form when he scored 18.8 point per game. Rookies Jannero Pargo and Taj Gibson are going to be expected to contribute right away. Joakim Noah is finally starting to look like an NBA player, and Tyrus Thomas might finally average 10 points and 10 boards a game. Derrick Rose should have another great year, but the Bulls aren’t going to be able to duplicate last years success. They have $6 million expiring contract just sitting on the bench in Jerome James, which gives them the flexibility to make move for a scorer during the season.

Player to watch : Derrick Rose
Last years Rookie of The Year. Rose was fantastic, and another Rose vs Rondo first round series would be great, but without Ben Gordon’s scoring, Rose needs to have a monster season just to make the playoffs.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Shaq is going to be a one year experiment, and Danny Ferry is hoping that its not like Detroit’s one experiment with Allen Iverson. LeBron and the Cavs quite possibly will cruise the leagues best record again, on their defensive intensity alone. But this team still doesn’t match up that well with the Celtics and Magic. Shaq doesn’t fit well with LeBron, in fact if Phoenix proved anything, its that Shaq can’t fit into someone elses offense, Shaq is the offense. The bench is again thin on talent, Anthony Parker is nice upgrade over Wally Szczerbiak, but Jamario Moon isn’t really good at anything, especially defense (Marquis Daniels lit him up last week in the preseason). Zydrunas Ilgauskas should have retired, he has jump shot, but he can’t move well enough to be a defensive presence. He has an expiring contract, and the Cavs could move him for a Stephen Jackson, which would give them excellent size on the perimeter. As currently constructed Cleveland isn’t good enough to get past a healthy Celtics or the Lakers. Shaq and Ilgauskas will free up almost $30 million in cap space to re-sign LeBron and add a Chris Bosh or Joe Johnson next season to make the Cavaliers the best team in the NBA.

Player to watch : LeBron James
Twice LeBron has played one on five in the fourth quarter of a playoff game and won. Nobody else in the NBA is that good, Nobody.

Detroit Pistons
Supposedly Joe Dumars is a genius general manager, he did win a championship with Larry Brown, but that team was stacked with talent, and the Pistons have slid backwards since then. Last season was a disaster, Dumars trades Billups for Iverson, the veteran core rebels against first year coach Michael Curry, and finally Iverson is deactivated for last six games of the season. Richard Hamilton was the only Piston other than Allen Iverson to score more than 15 point per game, and Detroit added Ben Gordon to supplement the scoring. Tayshaun Prince is a solid small forward, and the Pistons will be hoping for a breakout season from Rodney Stuckey. Charlie Villanueva is going to start at power forward, with Kwame Brown, Chris Willcox, Jason Maxiell and Ben Wallace to round out the front court, which has to find a way to replace both Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess. Rip Hamilton is going to have to deal with playing small forward next to Ben Gordon in the fourth quarter, and if the Pistons struggle he will probably gripe about it like last year. This team can compete for a playoff spot if new coach John Kuester can keep the veterans onboard with the new cast and the new more uptempo offensive style of play.

Player to watch : Rodney Stuckey
Stuckey was one of the bright spots on last years team, but his production was inconsistent. If he has a breakout year then Detroit will be a playoff team, but if Kuester can’t develop him then this team could really struggle.

Indiana Pacers
Despite battling injuries all year long Indiana almost made the playoffs. Danny Granger emerged as one the leagues top scorers, and should put huge numbers again this season. T.J. Ford is a serviceable point guard, but needs to average more than 5.3 assists a game. Marquis Daniels has been replaced by defensive specialist Dahntay Jones, but Brandon Rush is going to have to emerge as scoring threat off of the bench. Troy Murphy is a killer shooter for a power forward, but the rest of the front court is very weak. If Mike Dunleavy can stay healthy then Indiana will be in the playoff mix, but Indiana will probably be drafting front court help in next years lottery.

Player to watch : Danny Granger
Granger exploded last season, and despite nagging injuries made his first All-Star team. He might not repeat as an All-Star, but it won’t be for a lack of production.

Milwaukee Bucks
It’s hard to get a read on how good the Bucks really are because their best players are always injured. Andrew Bogut and Micheal Redd have struggled to stay on the court over the last few years, and have kept the Bucks from reaching their potential. The Bucks added Kurt Thomas and Hakim Warrick to their front court giving them two defensive forces which fit into Scott Skiles coaching style. Moving Richard Jefferson to San Antonio will put Luc Richard Mbah a Moute into the starting line-up. Mbah a Moute put up solid numbers as a rookie, and should develop into an excellent role player. Milwaukee drafted Brandon Jennings will hopefully solve the Bucks point guard conundrum. The bench is deep enough, and Scott Skiles defense should be strong enough for them to be competitive, but Milwaukee let three starters go this offseason, so don’t expect to see the Bucks playoff bound at the end of the year.

Player to watch : Brandon Jennings
Jennings skipped college to play a season professionally in Europe, it didn’t hurt his draft stock, but it did little to dissuade his many critics. He’s going to start for a really tough coach, so he’s going to have to perform consistently to avoid the bench.

Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks
Joe Johnson is one of the best players in the NBA, and has a fairly impressive roster around him. The biggest thing holding them back is Hawks coach Mike Woodson. Atlanta was the 4th seed in the East last season, and they will need to have career years from Josh Smith and Al Horford to surpass that. Mike Bibby can still shoot, but he started show signs of wear and tear, hopefully rookie Jeff Teague can take a share of the minutes at the point to keep Bibby fresh. Finding a way to fit Jamal Crawford into the offense might be disruptive, but if he’s content to come off the bench, and cut his number of shots in half, then he’ll be a great addition. The Hawks final seed isn’t all that important, this squad is going to the playoffs, and if they can bust up the big three and make it the Conference Finals then this team will have finally arrived.

Player to watch : Joe Johnson
The only shooting guards better than Johnson are Kobe and Wade. Johnson has been playing an absurd number of minutes, and with Crawford on the bench, he should be able to take a few more minutes off each game. It shouldn’t hurt his numbers, and it will him keep sharp for fourth quarters and back to back games.

Charlotte Bobcats
Charlotte was one of many almost playoff teams last season. Michael Jordan apparently felt the mid-season roster changes he made last year were enough to push them into the playoffs this season. The Bobcats have no consistent scoring threat, and no depth in the front court. MJ will be making another fantastic lottery pick next year, and if the Bobcats get bitten by the injury bug, it could be the first pick.

Player to watch : Raymond Felton
He might be the best player on a bad team, but he’s in a contract year. The salary cap is shrinking, if he wants to make better money someplace else he needs a career year.

Miami Heat
Dwayne Wade should have been last years MVP, and with no changes to the roster he’s going to have to repeat last years performance to keep the Heat in the playoffs. The back court featuring Wade, Mario Chalmers and Daequan Cook is very nice, and will continue to improve. Michael Beasley was a question mark before his terrible offseason, hopefully he will respond with his most focused season yet. The Heat need big production from Beasley because the front court is old and declining. Udonis Haslem would be a bench player on most teams, and Jermaine O’Neal hasn’t been effective in several years. The Heat should rise above the dregs of the East and make the playoffs, but unless Pat Riley makes a move or two during the season, it will be another first round exit for Miami.

Player to watch : Dwayne Wade
He’s going to have to do it all at both ends of the court. This year will be his best year yet, and should end with him receiving the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.

Orlando Magic
The Magic spent a ton of cash this offseason, none of which went to re-signing Hedo Turkoglu. Not signing Turkoglu made sense because they’re already overpaying for Rashard Lewis. Adding Vince Carter makes up for the loss of Turkoglu, but it’s not clear how successful the Magic’s fourth quarter offense will function with Carter running it instead of Turkoglu. Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass will allow Lewis to move back to small forward, and help the Magic match-up better with the Lakers and Celtics. Even without Turkoglu, having Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes on the bench will allow the Magic play smaller and use the same formations that killed the Cavaliers last season. The Magic have a laoded roster, but its going to interesting to see how Stan Van Gundy plans to distribute minutes among 10 players that are used to getting playing time. Losing Courtney Lee hurts them defensively on the perimeter, but losing Rafer Alston is the Magic’s key problem. Alston is a terrible point guard, look how much better Houston got after they sent him away, but his style of play was perfect for a rebound machine like Dwight Howard. The Magic were a better team with Alston and Turkoglu handling the ball then they were with Jameer Nelson at the point. Nelson is a better defender, and is a pure point guard, but doesn’t run the court well enough to take advantage of his team’s athleticism. If Carter and Nelson can get on the same page, and if Carter can run the fourth quarter offense, then the Magic will find their way past both the Lakers and Celtics to claim Orlando’s first Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy.

Player to watch : Vince Carter
Vince was once an MVP calibre player, those days are long gone, but this is the best team he has ever played on. He’s going to be asked to do a lot of things he hasn’t done very much of in the past, how well he adapts to his new home will dictate how far in the playoffs the Magic can go.

Washington Wizards
The Wizards front office has been rooting for a injury free season for the last four years, and Antwan Jamison is already hurt this season. What Wizards brass apparently doesn’t realize is that when this team was healthy they still couldn’t compete with the East’s elite. Washington is going to be better than last year, simply because they can’t be worse than last year. The Wizards elected to trade their lottery pick for Randy Foye and Mike Miller, which gives them scoring and depth incase of another injury riddled campaign. New Coach Flip Saunders is a great fit for this squad, and despite a lack of front court depth, the Wizards should stumble into the playoffs. But thats only if Washington can stay healthy, which is a big if for this crew. If injuries do prevail, this team has a whole bunch of pieces that would appeal to playoff teams, if they could move Jamison or Caron Butler to a contender, they would have an about $35 million in cap room next year.

Player to watch : Randy Foye
Assuming that Foye can find enough minutes in a crowded back court, he should put up some excellent numbers, and if not he might end up on another team before the end of the season.

NBA Season Preview Part 1 : The West

Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks
It’s the same old story with this franchise, a bunch of veterans over 30, and that lingering feeling that they’re still missing something. This team is deeper than in years past, and the addition of Shawn Marion will certainly help them with defensive match-ups. It’s hard to see them advancing beyond the first round of the playoffs, but if they can trade Erick Dampier, whose expiring contract will look very enticing to slumping franchises looking to shed payroll, for someone who can move at all, then maybe they could be this years Denver, and make a run at the conference finals.

Player to watch : Josh Howard
He’s in a contract year, and he hasn’t done anything recently to earn him a big payday. With the salary cap shrinking next year he’s going to have to play better just to make what they’re paying him now.

Houston Rockets
Everyone wants to bury this team because Yao is gone for the season, Tracy McGrady will miss the beginning of the year, and Ron Artest bolted for LA. But this is a Rick Adelman team, and he is a very underrated coach. He has won everywhere he has coached, and that because his system doesn’t need a star player to fill up the stat sheet, look at all the success he had in Sacramento when his best player was Chris Weber. The Rocket’s front office has put together a solid team, and if they can stay around .500 until McGrady is healthy then exepect them to still sneak into the playoffs.

Player to watch : Chase Budinger
He’s a 6’7 rookie from Arizona, and that about all there is to know. The word is that he can play, and there are going to be a lot of minutes for him early in season to prove it.

Memphis Grizzlies
O.J. Mayo is one of the next superstars in the league, and Rudy Gay is one of the most overlooked players in the NBA. In theory Memphis should be as good as the Seattle Ray Allen/Rashard Lewis teams (which weren’t that great), but they’re going to be in the lottery again next year. The additions of Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson are going to suffocate the Grizzlies young core, and without a coach strong enough to mediate the mixture of youth and disruptive veterans this could be a year long train wreck. At least there will be a reason to watch for once. Iverson wants to prove the naysayers wrong, lets see if he can shoot better than 35% and average 5 assists, then I’ll be proved wrong. Rudy Gay will want out before the end of the season, so teams with expiring contracts should be ready to deal.

Player to watch : O.J. Mayo
There isn’t any other reason to watch this seasons Grizzlies. Pray for him to end up on a better team someday.

New Orleans Hornets
It’s been seven seasons since the Hornets moved from Charlotte, and for some reason it still doesn’t feel right for me to say New Orleans Hornets. Trading Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor was a great move, Chandler is chronically injured, and rivals Ben Wallace for offensive ineptitude, but Okafor isn’t that much better, and is way to expensive with a cap figure over $10 million. Darren Collison was a nice draft pick, but he’s not going to replace what they lost in Pargo. New Orleans has age issues, how much can be expected out of these overpaid veterans: Peterson ($5.8 million), Stojakovic ($13.4 million) and Posey ($6 million). Julian Wright has failed to develop as either a three or a four. David West puts up monster numbers, but he’s this generations Chris Weber, good but not good enough. This franchise is horribly run, and always has been, they don’t even have a 2 guard on the roster. The Hornets might sneak into the playoffs, but if things slide it could get real ugly, a trip back to lottery may be in the cards.

Player to watch : Chris Paul
He’s the best point guard in the NBA, but it’s clear he’s not thrilled with the team’s direction. How the Hornets fair this season will go along way in determining his future with the team.

San Antonio Spurs
Greg Popovich cried foul when the Lakers picked up Pau Gasol for nothing, but he had no complaints when the Spurs trading retirees for Richard Jefferson. The move makes me think that there is a lot of doubt about what Manu Ginobili’s health. Ginobili is a top ten offensive player, but is consistently hampered by nagging injuries, and the same goes for Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. If the team can stay healthy the Spurs will be the primary contender to knock off the Lakers in the Western Confrence, but beyond health, age is a serious concern. Duncan, Ginobili and Michael Finley have all declined in the past few seasons, and either Theo Ratliff (age 36) is the starting center, or Duncan plays center and Antonio McDyess (age 35) starts at power forward. This is probably San Antonio’s last run with the current core of veterans, and they will surely make the most of it, but unless they’re all in good shape they won’t push the Lakers in the playoffs.

Player to watch : George Hill
San Antonio does a great job at developing players, and Hill has been in their system for a couple of years. He’s had his moments, but thats all he’s done so far. Hill was one of the surprising players in the summer league, and the Spurs are going to need some youth off their aging bench.

Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets
Denver had a terrible offseason, they lost a starter and a key bench player, and only added a back-up 2 guard. Dahntay Jones was Denver’s best perimeter defender, and he’s being replaced by one of Denver’s worst perimeter players, J.R. Smith. Smith was huge off of Denver’s bench last season, and with Linas Kleiza gone to play in Europe, the bench looks anemic. As much praise as Chauncey Billups received last season, it was Denver’s bench that made them competitive with the West’s elite. Nene is much better than anyone is willing to give him credit for, and Aaron Afflalo is a nice addition, but he’s too small to be an effective perimeter defender. The front office has been willing to deal during the season in the past, and they’re going to realize quickly that this team needs help to stay at the top the West.

Player to watch : J.R. Smith
One of the best offensive talents in the NBA, he can fill it up from anywhere on the court, but he’s lacked the discipline to be a starter. He was electric off the bench last year, but this year George Karl doesn’t have any alternative to start at the 2 guard spot.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Why did Kurt Rambis take this job? This could be the least talented team in the NBA. Al Jefferson is going to put up some monster numbers, but thats not hard when you’re the only offensive option. Kevin Love will be solid when he comes back, Johnny Flynn should develop quickly and Ramon Sessions might have been the best value of any free agent signed this summer. Beyond that there isn’t anything going for this team. Minnesota traded away two of their top five scorers, and lost six of their top ten. Corey Brewer isn’t developing into a contributer, and Ryan Gomes isn’t a starter in this league. The rest of the roster isn’t worth going over. There’s a good chance that this team will have the best chance to win the lottery next year.

Player to watch : Johnny Flynn
There’s a lot of good young point guards out there, but Flynn should turn some heads this year. He might make a run at rookie of the year if he can get stable minutes in a convoluted back court situation.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Worst team name in the NBA, and maybe the worst uniforms. Kevin Durrant is going to be huge this year, and no one will know because he plays in Oklahoma City. The Thunder have a nice young core with Durrant, and back court players Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Westbrook impressed as a rookie, and expect a strong sophomore season. But the Thunder have no real front court. Jeff Green is a small forward playing out of position, and beyond that they have a couple of unproven youngsters and a couple of veterans not lusted after by anyone else. There is a lot of buzz about this being a break out team, but i think there still a year and another lottery pick away from making a playoff run.

Player to watch : Russell Westbrook
Durrant might win the scoring title, but the ultimate fate of this team is in Westbrook’s hands. Durrant isn’t developed enough to make players around him better, but as a point guard, whatever Westbrook can eke out of his supporting cast will determine how far this team evolves from last year.

Portland Trailblazers
The Trailblazers finished a shocking 4th in the West last season. They lost to a much more experienced Rockets team in the first round, but that was to be expected from a young team with no playoff experience. So this offseason they added no veteran leadership or playoff experience. After pursuing Hedo Turkoglu, who would have finally solved their small forward quandary, they settled on Andre Miller even though they already had two point guards on their roster. Brandon Roy is a stud, but beyond that they only have role players. LeMarcus Aldridge is an adequate big man, Steve Blake might be a better point guard than Miller, and Rudy Fernandez is really good, but Portland can not figure out how to use him (Answer: Use him how Orlando used Turkoglu) . The season is going to hinge on Greg Oden, and he’s going to be expected to start and contribute. If Oden can average 10 points and 10 boards, and if Portland get any sort of consistent production from the small forward position, then they will be playoff bound, if not Fernandez will surely be traded or sent back to Europe. Also, how crazy is this, the two highest paid players on this team are Andre Miller and Joel Pryzbilla, who aren’t even starters.

Player to watch : Brandon Roy
It would be Greg Oden, but it seems more likely he’ll break something as opposed to breaking out. It would be Rudy Fernandez, but again it seems unlikely Nate McMillian will spontaneous realize how to use him. That leaves Roy, and he’s easily the best player on the team anyway.

Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz were the last team in the playoffs last year, and they probably won’t fair much better this year. The team is essentially the same as last years pursuing the Washington Wizards philosophy of “if only we were healthy we’d be good”. Deron Williams might be the heir to Jason Kidd as the best point guard in basketball, and everything about this team hinges on him. Utah has two good power forwards, two decent centers, and they appear to have found a two guard in Ronnie Brewer to fill the vacuum left by Jeff Hornacek all those years ago. But Andrei Kirilenko has evaporated off the face of the earth, he used to be a stat machine like Shawn Marion, Marion has faded too, but Kirilenko is only 28, he should be in his prime. If they had another option at small forward, so they could bring Kirilenko off the bench in a unit with Kyle Korver, Ronnie Price, Paul Millsap and Kosta Koufos, then this team would be a contender. They would have had cap room if Kirilenko wasn’t making $16.5 million. There’s still a reasonable chance they will try to move Carlos Boozer’s $12.3 million contract during the season, and where they are in the standings will impact that decision.

Player to watch : Andrei Kirilenko
Their legitimacy as a contender depends on him. Deron Williams can only take this team so far, and Kirilenko used to put up All-Star numbers. They don’t need a lot, if he can just be a Bruce Bowen or Tayshaun Prince type then this team could be dangerous.

Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors
The Grizzlies only real competition for most dysfunctional team in the NBA, but thats how Don Nelson draws it up. Golden State’s best player, Stephen Jackson, has already demanded to be traded, and renounced his captaincy. The second best player, Monta Ellis, has publicly stated that he doesn’t want to share the back court with rookie Stephen Curry. Power forward Brendan Wright needs surgery to repair his chronically injured shoulder, and it’s still unclear exactly how Nelson plans to use Corey Maggette. However, there’s a real upside to this team, because of fire power on the bench featuring a group of young players ready to explode. Anthony Randolph was impressive in the summer league, and if he can become a starter so that Maggette can come off the bench then this team would have one of the best offensive second units in the NBA. There’s a lot of sour personalities on this team, but if Nellie can keep everyone on track this team will fight for one of the last playoff spots. If things go south the Warriors have a lot of tradable commodities, so expect Amare Stoudemire trade talk to resurface.

Player to watch : Stephen Curry
Curry was a spark-plug in college. He was more of a scorer than a distributer, having only played one season at point guard at Davidson. He can shoot the light out, but he lacks interior scoring ability, and at his diminutive size he might not be able to get the looks he got in college.

Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers finally used a lottery pick on a player that makes sense for them. It’s shocking enough to believe that maybe this really is the beginning on a new era for the other LA franchise. Blake Griffin is going to be good, but he probably won’t have the immediate impact that people are expecting. Baron Davis is apparently going to actually participate this season, Eric Gordon averaged 16.1 points in his rookie year, and Al Thornton might be ready to have break out season at both ends of the court. The Clippers have depth in the front court with Marcus Camby and new addition Craig Smith coming off the bench, but there is no depth in the back court, except for Rasual Butler and the diminishing athleticism of Ricky Davis. If there’s a major injury, which this team has suffered though in repeated season, then this team will be a doormat again. There might be some thrills, especially early in the season, but it’s going to be back to lottery for Clippers.

Player to watch : Baron Davis
It probably should be Blake Griffin, but the expectations are already way to high for him. Baron Davis has and can be All-Star calibre point guard, and when he’s playing at that level he can make this team competitive.

Los Angeles Lakers
Prohibitive favorite to repeat as NBA champions, the only team standing in their way is probably themselves. Phil Jackson’s teams always have a combustible personality to them, and honestly he manages it incredibly well. However, Ron Artest isn’t Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman or any of the other malcontents Phil Jackson has coached, he’s Ron Artest son! It isn’t a matter of if something will blow up, it’s a matter of how well the Lakers can pretend everything is ok when it does blow up. Aside from that, the Lakers are poised to repeat unless Andrew Bynum get hurt again. The Lakers don’t have enough depth to handle a front court player going down, especially if they face the Celtics in the Finals. Also, the Lakers only have 13 men on their roster, whats up with that?

Player to watch : Kobe Bryant
He’s the best offensive player to ever lace them up, end of story.

Phoenix Suns
Phoenix’s starting five isn’t so bad, even if two starters (Grant Hill and Steve Nash) are over 35. If Amare Stoudemire can avoid getting nicked up, or traded Phoenix can be competitive, but they’ll probably repeat as the last team out of the playoffs in the West. The Suns have no depth at any position, and are getting diminishing returns from scorers Jason Richardson and Leandro Barbosa. This team needs to rebuild, they’ve already lost most of pieces of their contending teams, and those teams never sniffed the NBA finals. Steve Kerr is a terrible General Manager, he brought in Shaq, he traded away his best defensive talent, and then signed a 35 year old Steve Nash to a two year extension. If the wheels fall off expect this team to be dismantled and sold for scrap.

Player to watch : Steve Nash
One of the most overrated players in NBA history, but at 35 he’s still the best player on this team.

Sacramento Kings
Sacramento is going to be near the top of draft again next season, and most of the Kings talk will probably center around where the club will being playing next season. Kevin Martin is a scoring machine, Spencer Hawes is an interesting young big man, and Rookie Tyreke Evans is going to get plenty time with the ball. I would expect Sacramento to make some moves during the season, but with ownership in flux it seems unlikely that any major changes will be made. The Kings will probably finish last in the west.

Player to watch : Tyreke Evans
Dark horse candidate for rookie of the year. It’s not clear he can play the point effectively, but with no clear alternative he’s going to start for the Kings. He’s been filling up the stat sheet, but he’s got to limit his turnovers.