Lebrocalypse Now

The Cleveland Cavaliers were eliminated from the NBA Playoffs in second round by the Boston Celtics, in what will probably be Lebron James’ last game for the Cavs. A combination of factors led to the Cavaliers’ failure to win a championship: general manager Danny Ferry failed to put another top flight player along side Lebron, head coach Mike Brown did little to develop a half court offense, and was incapable of adjusting his rotation and strategy from game to game, while Lebron himself deserves some blame because his leadership on and off the court became increasingly questionable. Cleveland has little to no flexibility to change a roster that was unable to even reach the conference finals. Mike Brown has already been fired, although it appears that Danny Ferry will remain the Cavs general manager, but it seems unlikely that anything owner Dan Gilbert does will be enough to keep Lebron in Cleveland.

Dan Gilbert bought the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2005 for $375 million, and the franchise’s value has increased over $100 since then, mostly because of Lebron’s incredible marketability. When Lebron leaves most of that added value will contract, and with all small market franchises being highly overvalued, the team could end up being worth less than what Gilbert bought it for. Gilbert, a sports fanatic, has done everything he can to build a championship squad for Lebron, spending over the salary cap for several seasons, this past year, after luxury tax, the Cavs spent almost $100 million on player salaries. Because of this excessive spending the Cavs are actually losing money, and Gilbert has been looking to sell a minority stake in the franchise to a group of Chinese investors, however, no one will be interested in investing any money into a Lebron-less Cavaliers. Even with Lebron’s and Shaq’s huge salaries coming off the books, Cleveland will have very little cap room to bring in any new talent even if someone wanted to play in Cleveland without Lebron. Lebron’s departure will have a long-term impact on the viability of the franchise, which will certainly slump to the level of the other Cleveland sports teams.

The looming lockout in the summer of 2011 will have a huge effect on the current free agent pool. NBA teams will be reluctant to sign anyone to anything more than a one year contract, knowing that the next collective bargaining agreement (CBA) will be much more favorable for the owners. This will have no effect on Lebron James or Dwayne Wade, but it will for all the other free agents, although Lebron and everyone else will be trying to negotiate the longest contract possible. If there wasn’t a new CBA in the offing, the most logical thing for Lebron to do would be to re-sign with Cleveland for three years, after which he would be eligible for the biggest contract under the current CBA, which is only eligible to players with ten years of service. Cleveland can offer the longest contract with the most money (a sixth year at about $26 million), but the difference in the final year of a contract in Cleveland and the first year of a new contract somewhere else would only be a couple million dollars, not enough to sway Lebron to stay.

Lebron, Wade, Chris Bosh and Joe Johnson are in communication with each about the possible moves that they could make in concert with each other, not a good sign for Cleveland since they are unable to sign anyone other than Lebron. Dirk Nowitzki is going to opt out of the final year of his contract, as is A’mare Stoudamire, creating an incredible group of available talent, not even including a strong group of restricted free agents. Where these players end up, as well as possible shake ups in coaching situations in several of Lebron’s possible destinations will dictate where he finally ends up.

The coach is an essential piece of the puzzle, but it will be hard for any team to get a big name coach without already having signed Lebron, and vice-versa, Lebron is going to want to know who the coach is going to be before he is willing to sign anywhere. Phil Jackson and John Calipari are using the media to play footsie with NBA teams in order to improve their contract situations with their current employers. If Mike Krzyzewski was going to leave for the NBA he would have done so before, and much of his archaic system would not work very well in the NBA anyway, which is why so many Duke players struggle at the next level. Larry Brown will be seventy years old by the start of next season, although it is not impossible to see him being lured away from the Charlotte Bobcats. Tom Izzo is the best college coach, and maybe someday he will coach in the NBA, but by all indications it’s not going to happen anytime soon. Jeff Van Gundy is best coach not currently employed by a team, but he seems content to stick to his successful broadcasting career. Most unemployed coaches like Byron Scott and Avery Johnson are unemployed for a reason, just as most assistants are assistants for a reason. Mark Jackson is the best available coaching candidate if he can be pried away from ESPN, but the opportunity to coach Lebron would probably be enough to make that happen, but Lebron would have to be satisfied with a completely unproven coach. The shot Miami has at landing Lebron, is that Pat Riley could offer to take the over as Coach again, and he has the rings to get Lebron’s respect.

New Jersey has a brand new billionaire owner, and could provide Lebron an opportunity to build a franchise in his own image. There is already talent on the Nets, former All-Star Devin Harris and future All-Star Brook Lopez, and they would have cap space to add several other pieces to make New Jersey a contender. However, the proposed move to Brooklyn is way behind schedule, and may never happen, so regardless of how close he may be to minority owner Jay-Z, it’s doubtful he be wearing a Nets jersey next year. The Chicago Bulls made the playoffs last season, and have an emerging young star in Derrick Rose, but their next best player is Joakim Noah, a good young post player, but not exactly All-Star material. If they could somehow trick Toronto or Miami into a sign and trade for the inflated contracts of Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich in exchange for Bosh or Wade, then maybe Lebron would be interested. However, Michael Jordan’s shadow looms large in Chicago, and equalling Jordan’s six championships would be tough regardless of what combination of talent they surround Lebron with, and while Chicago’s market is much larger than Cleveland’s, it’s no New York.

The New York Knicks are the most likely destination for Lebron, they have the cap room to sign two max contract players, giving Lebron a legitimate running mate for the first time in his career. Playing in Madison Square Garden is a huge draw for Lebron, and while winning a title for Cleveland would have made him a legend there, winning one at MSG, and becoming a New York legend is far more appealing for him and for Nike. New York could be an instant contender, if the Knicks can land a combination of Lebron and either Nowitzki or Bosh, and they would still have the mid-level exception, along with about $5 million in cap space, as well as Eddie Curry’s expiring contract. The Boston Celtics made this one year transition from doormat to Champion when they acquired Kevein Garnett and Ray Allen after they failed to win the NBA Draft lottery, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Lebron can bring the Larry O’Brien Trophy back to New York next season, and he certainly would do at least as well as he did with the Cavs this season. New York has endless marketing opportunities, and corporations will be lining up to have his face and name adorning their products and services. With the impeding lockout on the horizon, New York will give Lebron a chance to expand his presence in the entertainment world very easily. The only caveat is that Mike D’Antoni is one of the worst head coaches in the NBA, and there is no way that Lebron would want to play for him, but there is no doubt that the Knicks would be willing to eat the remainder of his four year $24 million contract, and bring in a coach that Lebron approves of, no matter the cost. Lebron will be in New York next season, it’s to good of an opportunity to turn down, and by every indication it’s where he really wants to be.