Iraq In The Next Century

The Obama administration intends for all American combat forces to leave Iraq by August 2010. The Exact dynamics of what U.S. presence will remain is still extremely vague, and a sizable contingent of U.S. troops will certainly stay in country for many years to come. Iraq has been less volatile even though more and more security responsibility has been turned over to the Iraqi Army and Police. However, there has been a trend up in violence, most recently several bombings of government ministries have occurred just outside the green zone. Despite the recent success in turning over security to Iraqi forces, it appears that they are not capable of maintaining stability on their own. Iraq’s foreign minister blamed the most recent bombings on foreign fighters, but over 60 Iraqi military personnel and officers have been arrested, and early indications are that there was at least some complicity with security forces. The Iraqi military and police are not ethnically integrated, and the leadership is dominated by Shi’a. Many rivalries exist, and Iraqi forces have fought with each other in the past. The Sunni awakening was one of the turning points in the reconstruction of Iraq, but the Sunni leadership has not found a willing partner in the central government. The Sunni groups that the U.S. partnered with were not part of the Iraqi Government, and are essentially independent militias, commonly known as the Sons of Iraq. The Government of Iraq has brought this program under the umbrella of the Iraqi Security Forces, but are only willing to accept 20% of the Sunni forces, and payment of these forces has been irregular. This is an underlying problem, Sunni groups may have reconciled with U.S. forces, at least for now, but there still has been little to no progress in Sunni – Shi’a reconciliation. The Shi’a dominated government has not been eager to integrate, and many Sunnis in the government are actually former Ba’athists, who are deemed politically useful or reliable. Sunni leaders are still frequently arrested and detained, and their militias are targeted, when many Shi’a militias operate in the open. The fact that there are still so many armed groups outside governmental control is very concerning. Arab-Kurd political tensions have steadily increased in the last year. Ninewa was turned over to Sunni leadership even though the Kurdish Peshmerga provides the security for that region. The Kurds are not in favor of a strong national government, and want to maintain their autonomy. However, Iran and Turkey are both opposed to a strong Kurdish State because of their own internal conflicts with Kurdish separatist groups, many of which operate with the aid of Kurdistan. Ultimately the biggest problem in reconciling any of these groups is how to divide the oil wealth. Iraq has large oil fields, but they are not evenly distributed across the country. The Kurds have been making oil contracts without government approval, and there is not much oil in the Sunni controlled areas. The Iraqi Parliament has been unable to pass meaningful hydrocarbon laws. The Kurds already have their own government and army that operate independently, and it is unlikely that they will accept being ruled by a strong government in Baghdad. The Iraqi Army and Kurdish forces have clashed before, and with pressure from Turkey to crack down on Kurdish militants, and increased Iraqi Army presence, future conflicts are likely. Earlier this year provincial elections were a success, with little violence and increased voter participation. In January Iraq will hold a National election, which will shape the future potential of the Iraqi State. Many groups boycotted the previous national election, which led to the Shi’a dominated Parliament, and the election of many dubious characters. Fear dominated the previous election, many candidates were unwilling to post their pictures, and others were simply bullied out of running. The current government led by Nouri Al-Malaki has been ineffective and corrupt, serving it’s own self-interests above anything else. There has been a split between the Dawa Party and The Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq , the two largest parties in the Iraqi National Alliance, and there is a lot of internal grumbling about Al-Malaki’s leadership. Hopefully there will be a turnover in Parliament, but Al-Malaki has a substantial lead in current polls mostly by championing his record on security. However, with the current series of bombings has severely rattled faith in Al-Malaki’s ability to provide security, especially with planned U.S. troop withdrawals. If bombings continue, and security starts to slide, the elections with almost certainly be postponed. In fact the elections won’t even take place unless the Parliament can pass key legislation before January. It is possible Al-Malaki will be replaced, but the alternatives are not especially promising, and the government will certainly still be dominated by members of the Iraqi National Alliance, which will make further reconciliation unlikely. Despite all the progress in the last two years, the future of Iraq is bleak. The country is fractured by Shi’a sectarianism, Sunni distrust and Kurdish nationalism, and the U.S. is really the only force trying to hold it together.

NBA Season Preview Part 2 : The East

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics
The Celtics were unable to defend their title effectively without Kevin Garnett. Garnett is back, along with new additions, Rasheed Wallace, Marquis Daniels and Shelden Williams. The Celtics should be the favorite to emerge from the East, but as hard as they fought last season, they have concerns beyond Garnett’s knees. Garnett (33), Paul Pierce (32) and Ray Allen (34) are all showing signs of decline, Eddie House outplayed Ray Allen in last years playoff run. Marquis Daniels doesn’t exactly fit the Celtics style, but if Allen continues to disappoint, then it’s going to be on him to carry the load offensively and defensively at the 2 guard spot. The bright side is that young guard Rajon Rondo continues to impress. Boston will cruise to the second round of the playoffs, if they finish with the best record in the East, then they will cruise to the Eastern Confrence Finals, and if the veterans have enough left in the tank they should meet the Lakers in the NBA Finals.

Player to watch : Rajon Rondo
He was the Celtics’ best player last season, and he looks more focused than ever this season. He can score, and he can distribute, don’t be surprised if he makes his first All-Star Team.

New Jersey Nets
Devin Harris is going to have to shoulder a large load now that Vince Carter is in Orlando. Brook Lopez has shown potential as a center, and new addition Courtney Lee is a good young shooting guard. The rest of the team is a mess, half of the bench is over 30, and the younger players aren’t developing very well (Yi Jianlan). They’ve acquired several expiring contracts (Bobby Simmons $11.2 million contract is the biggest on the team), so it looks like management is content to head back to the lottery, and make a play for a big name free agent next summer.

Player to watch : Devin Harris
Harris is the only reason to buy tickets this season in Jersey. He made his first All-Star team last year, he should continue to impress.

New York Knicks
The Knicks are not unlike the Nets, except that the Nets at least have an All-Star on their roster. There is no first option for scoring, and there isn’t any defense to at least keep them in games. Nate Robinson can create for himself, and is exciting to watch in the fourth quarter, but beyond that the roster is void of talent. David Lee can grab a bunch of rebounds, but who couldn’t on a team that misses so many shots. Al Harrington doesn’t seem to fit very well in anyone’s system. Another 30 win season is probably the best Mike Dantoni can hope for, and don’t expect that to lure LeBron away from Cleveland. The two highest paid players on this team Eddy Curry ($10.5 million) and Larry Hughes ($13.6 million) probably won’t see much of any playing time. The Knicks also won’t have their lottery pick in next years draft, so all this losing is going to hurt that much more.

Player to watch : Nate Robinson
There isn’t anyone else to pick, and it’s probably 50/50 he’ll get traded during the year.

Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers could challenge the Hawks for the number 4 slot in the East, and if they hope to advance out of the first round they better not finish worse than 5th. Elton Brand wasn’t producing last season, then he got hurt, and the team got better with more minutes going to Marreese Speights and Thaddeus Young. The 76ers could have signed Josh Smith, which would have given the Sixers the most imposing young front court, instead of signing Brand until he’s 34. Mo Cheeks was fired early last season, Tony DiLeo replaced him and managed to get the club into the playoffs. DiLeo has returned to the front office, and it will up to new coach Eddie Jordan to integrate Brand into the 76ers offense. Andre Miller left for Portland, leaving no obvious solution at point guard, but Portland overpaid, and thats a mistake Philadelphia was wise not to make again. Louis Williams will probably start at the point, but expect Andre Iguodala to be the primary ball handler. Eddie Jordan’s coaching style doesn’t need a traditional point gaurd, and should work decently with Elton Brand playing center. They don’t have a lot of flexibility to make any changes, unless they can convince someone to trade for Samuel Dalembert and his $12 million contract.

Player to watch : Marreese Speights
One of the more impressive rookies from last year in only limited minutes. He’s part of an impressive young core with Young and Iguodala. Expect bigger things from all three this season.

Toronto Raptors
Raptors need to improve by 8 wins to make the playoffs this season. They overpaid for a 30 year old Hedo Turkoglu, and his 16 points and 5 rebounds a game isn’t really any better than the 14 points and 8 boards that Shawn Marion was producing. Spending all that money decimated their bench, but leaves opportunity for summer league king Marco Belinelli to actually get some NBA minutes. The Turkoglu acquisition indicates the Raptors intend to copy the Magic’s formula for success, but with the lack of the defensive focus that made the Magic so good, the Raptors will probably look a lot more like the run and gun Suns teams. DeMar Derozan was an excellent pick up in the draft, and fills a glaring need at shooting gaurd. Amir Johnson will get minutes after being buried on the Pistons bench for years, and should put up solid numbers. Chris Bosh should have a big year, and if the bench can hold its own, Toronto should sneak into the playoffs at around .500.

Player to watch : DeMar DeRozan
He’s got the size and athleticism to be an elite shooting guard in the NBA, but he was inconsistent in college. He’s going to get a ton of minutes right away, but if the preseason is any indication, it might take him a while to shine.

Central Division

Chicago Bulls
The Bulls made the best in season moves of any team last year. The additions of John Salmons and Brad Miller paid immediate dividends, and Chicago surged into the playoffs, eventually losing to Celtics in an epic seven game first round series. But Chicago lost their leading scorer, Ben Gordon, in the offseason, and failed to replace him. Luol Deng will be coming back from injury, and will have to return to 06-07 form when he scored 18.8 point per game. Rookies Jannero Pargo and Taj Gibson are going to be expected to contribute right away. Joakim Noah is finally starting to look like an NBA player, and Tyrus Thomas might finally average 10 points and 10 boards a game. Derrick Rose should have another great year, but the Bulls aren’t going to be able to duplicate last years success. They have $6 million expiring contract just sitting on the bench in Jerome James, which gives them the flexibility to make move for a scorer during the season.

Player to watch : Derrick Rose
Last years Rookie of The Year. Rose was fantastic, and another Rose vs Rondo first round series would be great, but without Ben Gordon’s scoring, Rose needs to have a monster season just to make the playoffs.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Shaq is going to be a one year experiment, and Danny Ferry is hoping that its not like Detroit’s one experiment with Allen Iverson. LeBron and the Cavs quite possibly will cruise the leagues best record again, on their defensive intensity alone. But this team still doesn’t match up that well with the Celtics and Magic. Shaq doesn’t fit well with LeBron, in fact if Phoenix proved anything, its that Shaq can’t fit into someone elses offense, Shaq is the offense. The bench is again thin on talent, Anthony Parker is nice upgrade over Wally Szczerbiak, but Jamario Moon isn’t really good at anything, especially defense (Marquis Daniels lit him up last week in the preseason). Zydrunas Ilgauskas should have retired, he has jump shot, but he can’t move well enough to be a defensive presence. He has an expiring contract, and the Cavs could move him for a Stephen Jackson, which would give them excellent size on the perimeter. As currently constructed Cleveland isn’t good enough to get past a healthy Celtics or the Lakers. Shaq and Ilgauskas will free up almost $30 million in cap space to re-sign LeBron and add a Chris Bosh or Joe Johnson next season to make the Cavaliers the best team in the NBA.

Player to watch : LeBron James
Twice LeBron has played one on five in the fourth quarter of a playoff game and won. Nobody else in the NBA is that good, Nobody.

Detroit Pistons
Supposedly Joe Dumars is a genius general manager, he did win a championship with Larry Brown, but that team was stacked with talent, and the Pistons have slid backwards since then. Last season was a disaster, Dumars trades Billups for Iverson, the veteran core rebels against first year coach Michael Curry, and finally Iverson is deactivated for last six games of the season. Richard Hamilton was the only Piston other than Allen Iverson to score more than 15 point per game, and Detroit added Ben Gordon to supplement the scoring. Tayshaun Prince is a solid small forward, and the Pistons will be hoping for a breakout season from Rodney Stuckey. Charlie Villanueva is going to start at power forward, with Kwame Brown, Chris Willcox, Jason Maxiell and Ben Wallace to round out the front court, which has to find a way to replace both Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess. Rip Hamilton is going to have to deal with playing small forward next to Ben Gordon in the fourth quarter, and if the Pistons struggle he will probably gripe about it like last year. This team can compete for a playoff spot if new coach John Kuester can keep the veterans onboard with the new cast and the new more uptempo offensive style of play.

Player to watch : Rodney Stuckey
Stuckey was one of the bright spots on last years team, but his production was inconsistent. If he has a breakout year then Detroit will be a playoff team, but if Kuester can’t develop him then this team could really struggle.

Indiana Pacers
Despite battling injuries all year long Indiana almost made the playoffs. Danny Granger emerged as one the leagues top scorers, and should put huge numbers again this season. T.J. Ford is a serviceable point guard, but needs to average more than 5.3 assists a game. Marquis Daniels has been replaced by defensive specialist Dahntay Jones, but Brandon Rush is going to have to emerge as scoring threat off of the bench. Troy Murphy is a killer shooter for a power forward, but the rest of the front court is very weak. If Mike Dunleavy can stay healthy then Indiana will be in the playoff mix, but Indiana will probably be drafting front court help in next years lottery.

Player to watch : Danny Granger
Granger exploded last season, and despite nagging injuries made his first All-Star team. He might not repeat as an All-Star, but it won’t be for a lack of production.

Milwaukee Bucks
It’s hard to get a read on how good the Bucks really are because their best players are always injured. Andrew Bogut and Micheal Redd have struggled to stay on the court over the last few years, and have kept the Bucks from reaching their potential. The Bucks added Kurt Thomas and Hakim Warrick to their front court giving them two defensive forces which fit into Scott Skiles coaching style. Moving Richard Jefferson to San Antonio will put Luc Richard Mbah a Moute into the starting line-up. Mbah a Moute put up solid numbers as a rookie, and should develop into an excellent role player. Milwaukee drafted Brandon Jennings will hopefully solve the Bucks point guard conundrum. The bench is deep enough, and Scott Skiles defense should be strong enough for them to be competitive, but Milwaukee let three starters go this offseason, so don’t expect to see the Bucks playoff bound at the end of the year.

Player to watch : Brandon Jennings
Jennings skipped college to play a season professionally in Europe, it didn’t hurt his draft stock, but it did little to dissuade his many critics. He’s going to start for a really tough coach, so he’s going to have to perform consistently to avoid the bench.

Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks
Joe Johnson is one of the best players in the NBA, and has a fairly impressive roster around him. The biggest thing holding them back is Hawks coach Mike Woodson. Atlanta was the 4th seed in the East last season, and they will need to have career years from Josh Smith and Al Horford to surpass that. Mike Bibby can still shoot, but he started show signs of wear and tear, hopefully rookie Jeff Teague can take a share of the minutes at the point to keep Bibby fresh. Finding a way to fit Jamal Crawford into the offense might be disruptive, but if he’s content to come off the bench, and cut his number of shots in half, then he’ll be a great addition. The Hawks final seed isn’t all that important, this squad is going to the playoffs, and if they can bust up the big three and make it the Conference Finals then this team will have finally arrived.

Player to watch : Joe Johnson
The only shooting guards better than Johnson are Kobe and Wade. Johnson has been playing an absurd number of minutes, and with Crawford on the bench, he should be able to take a few more minutes off each game. It shouldn’t hurt his numbers, and it will him keep sharp for fourth quarters and back to back games.

Charlotte Bobcats
Charlotte was one of many almost playoff teams last season. Michael Jordan apparently felt the mid-season roster changes he made last year were enough to push them into the playoffs this season. The Bobcats have no consistent scoring threat, and no depth in the front court. MJ will be making another fantastic lottery pick next year, and if the Bobcats get bitten by the injury bug, it could be the first pick.

Player to watch : Raymond Felton
He might be the best player on a bad team, but he’s in a contract year. The salary cap is shrinking, if he wants to make better money someplace else he needs a career year.

Miami Heat
Dwayne Wade should have been last years MVP, and with no changes to the roster he’s going to have to repeat last years performance to keep the Heat in the playoffs. The back court featuring Wade, Mario Chalmers and Daequan Cook is very nice, and will continue to improve. Michael Beasley was a question mark before his terrible offseason, hopefully he will respond with his most focused season yet. The Heat need big production from Beasley because the front court is old and declining. Udonis Haslem would be a bench player on most teams, and Jermaine O’Neal hasn’t been effective in several years. The Heat should rise above the dregs of the East and make the playoffs, but unless Pat Riley makes a move or two during the season, it will be another first round exit for Miami.

Player to watch : Dwayne Wade
He’s going to have to do it all at both ends of the court. This year will be his best year yet, and should end with him receiving the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.

Orlando Magic
The Magic spent a ton of cash this offseason, none of which went to re-signing Hedo Turkoglu. Not signing Turkoglu made sense because they’re already overpaying for Rashard Lewis. Adding Vince Carter makes up for the loss of Turkoglu, but it’s not clear how successful the Magic’s fourth quarter offense will function with Carter running it instead of Turkoglu. Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass will allow Lewis to move back to small forward, and help the Magic match-up better with the Lakers and Celtics. Even without Turkoglu, having Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes on the bench will allow the Magic play smaller and use the same formations that killed the Cavaliers last season. The Magic have a laoded roster, but its going to interesting to see how Stan Van Gundy plans to distribute minutes among 10 players that are used to getting playing time. Losing Courtney Lee hurts them defensively on the perimeter, but losing Rafer Alston is the Magic’s key problem. Alston is a terrible point guard, look how much better Houston got after they sent him away, but his style of play was perfect for a rebound machine like Dwight Howard. The Magic were a better team with Alston and Turkoglu handling the ball then they were with Jameer Nelson at the point. Nelson is a better defender, and is a pure point guard, but doesn’t run the court well enough to take advantage of his team’s athleticism. If Carter and Nelson can get on the same page, and if Carter can run the fourth quarter offense, then the Magic will find their way past both the Lakers and Celtics to claim Orlando’s first Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy.

Player to watch : Vince Carter
Vince was once an MVP calibre player, those days are long gone, but this is the best team he has ever played on. He’s going to be asked to do a lot of things he hasn’t done very much of in the past, how well he adapts to his new home will dictate how far in the playoffs the Magic can go.

Washington Wizards
The Wizards front office has been rooting for a injury free season for the last four years, and Antwan Jamison is already hurt this season. What Wizards brass apparently doesn’t realize is that when this team was healthy they still couldn’t compete with the East’s elite. Washington is going to be better than last year, simply because they can’t be worse than last year. The Wizards elected to trade their lottery pick for Randy Foye and Mike Miller, which gives them scoring and depth incase of another injury riddled campaign. New Coach Flip Saunders is a great fit for this squad, and despite a lack of front court depth, the Wizards should stumble into the playoffs. But thats only if Washington can stay healthy, which is a big if for this crew. If injuries do prevail, this team has a whole bunch of pieces that would appeal to playoff teams, if they could move Jamison or Caron Butler to a contender, they would have an about $35 million in cap room next year.

Player to watch : Randy Foye
Assuming that Foye can find enough minutes in a crowded back court, he should put up some excellent numbers, and if not he might end up on another team before the end of the season.

NBA Season Preview Part 1 : The West

Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks
It’s the same old story with this franchise, a bunch of veterans over 30, and that lingering feeling that they’re still missing something. This team is deeper than in years past, and the addition of Shawn Marion will certainly help them with defensive match-ups. It’s hard to see them advancing beyond the first round of the playoffs, but if they can trade Erick Dampier, whose expiring contract will look very enticing to slumping franchises looking to shed payroll, for someone who can move at all, then maybe they could be this years Denver, and make a run at the conference finals.

Player to watch : Josh Howard
He’s in a contract year, and he hasn’t done anything recently to earn him a big payday. With the salary cap shrinking next year he’s going to have to play better just to make what they’re paying him now.

Houston Rockets
Everyone wants to bury this team because Yao is gone for the season, Tracy McGrady will miss the beginning of the year, and Ron Artest bolted for LA. But this is a Rick Adelman team, and he is a very underrated coach. He has won everywhere he has coached, and that because his system doesn’t need a star player to fill up the stat sheet, look at all the success he had in Sacramento when his best player was Chris Weber. The Rocket’s front office has put together a solid team, and if they can stay around .500 until McGrady is healthy then exepect them to still sneak into the playoffs.

Player to watch : Chase Budinger
He’s a 6’7 rookie from Arizona, and that about all there is to know. The word is that he can play, and there are going to be a lot of minutes for him early in season to prove it.

Memphis Grizzlies
O.J. Mayo is one of the next superstars in the league, and Rudy Gay is one of the most overlooked players in the NBA. In theory Memphis should be as good as the Seattle Ray Allen/Rashard Lewis teams (which weren’t that great), but they’re going to be in the lottery again next year. The additions of Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson are going to suffocate the Grizzlies young core, and without a coach strong enough to mediate the mixture of youth and disruptive veterans this could be a year long train wreck. At least there will be a reason to watch for once. Iverson wants to prove the naysayers wrong, lets see if he can shoot better than 35% and average 5 assists, then I’ll be proved wrong. Rudy Gay will want out before the end of the season, so teams with expiring contracts should be ready to deal.

Player to watch : O.J. Mayo
There isn’t any other reason to watch this seasons Grizzlies. Pray for him to end up on a better team someday.

New Orleans Hornets
It’s been seven seasons since the Hornets moved from Charlotte, and for some reason it still doesn’t feel right for me to say New Orleans Hornets. Trading Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor was a great move, Chandler is chronically injured, and rivals Ben Wallace for offensive ineptitude, but Okafor isn’t that much better, and is way to expensive with a cap figure over $10 million. Darren Collison was a nice draft pick, but he’s not going to replace what they lost in Pargo. New Orleans has age issues, how much can be expected out of these overpaid veterans: Peterson ($5.8 million), Stojakovic ($13.4 million) and Posey ($6 million). Julian Wright has failed to develop as either a three or a four. David West puts up monster numbers, but he’s this generations Chris Weber, good but not good enough. This franchise is horribly run, and always has been, they don’t even have a 2 guard on the roster. The Hornets might sneak into the playoffs, but if things slide it could get real ugly, a trip back to lottery may be in the cards.

Player to watch : Chris Paul
He’s the best point guard in the NBA, but it’s clear he’s not thrilled with the team’s direction. How the Hornets fair this season will go along way in determining his future with the team.

San Antonio Spurs
Greg Popovich cried foul when the Lakers picked up Pau Gasol for nothing, but he had no complaints when the Spurs trading retirees for Richard Jefferson. The move makes me think that there is a lot of doubt about what Manu Ginobili’s health. Ginobili is a top ten offensive player, but is consistently hampered by nagging injuries, and the same goes for Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. If the team can stay healthy the Spurs will be the primary contender to knock off the Lakers in the Western Confrence, but beyond health, age is a serious concern. Duncan, Ginobili and Michael Finley have all declined in the past few seasons, and either Theo Ratliff (age 36) is the starting center, or Duncan plays center and Antonio McDyess (age 35) starts at power forward. This is probably San Antonio’s last run with the current core of veterans, and they will surely make the most of it, but unless they’re all in good shape they won’t push the Lakers in the playoffs.

Player to watch : George Hill
San Antonio does a great job at developing players, and Hill has been in their system for a couple of years. He’s had his moments, but thats all he’s done so far. Hill was one of the surprising players in the summer league, and the Spurs are going to need some youth off their aging bench.

Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets
Denver had a terrible offseason, they lost a starter and a key bench player, and only added a back-up 2 guard. Dahntay Jones was Denver’s best perimeter defender, and he’s being replaced by one of Denver’s worst perimeter players, J.R. Smith. Smith was huge off of Denver’s bench last season, and with Linas Kleiza gone to play in Europe, the bench looks anemic. As much praise as Chauncey Billups received last season, it was Denver’s bench that made them competitive with the West’s elite. Nene is much better than anyone is willing to give him credit for, and Aaron Afflalo is a nice addition, but he’s too small to be an effective perimeter defender. The front office has been willing to deal during the season in the past, and they’re going to realize quickly that this team needs help to stay at the top the West.

Player to watch : J.R. Smith
One of the best offensive talents in the NBA, he can fill it up from anywhere on the court, but he’s lacked the discipline to be a starter. He was electric off the bench last year, but this year George Karl doesn’t have any alternative to start at the 2 guard spot.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Why did Kurt Rambis take this job? This could be the least talented team in the NBA. Al Jefferson is going to put up some monster numbers, but thats not hard when you’re the only offensive option. Kevin Love will be solid when he comes back, Johnny Flynn should develop quickly and Ramon Sessions might have been the best value of any free agent signed this summer. Beyond that there isn’t anything going for this team. Minnesota traded away two of their top five scorers, and lost six of their top ten. Corey Brewer isn’t developing into a contributer, and Ryan Gomes isn’t a starter in this league. The rest of the roster isn’t worth going over. There’s a good chance that this team will have the best chance to win the lottery next year.

Player to watch : Johnny Flynn
There’s a lot of good young point guards out there, but Flynn should turn some heads this year. He might make a run at rookie of the year if he can get stable minutes in a convoluted back court situation.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Worst team name in the NBA, and maybe the worst uniforms. Kevin Durrant is going to be huge this year, and no one will know because he plays in Oklahoma City. The Thunder have a nice young core with Durrant, and back court players Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Westbrook impressed as a rookie, and expect a strong sophomore season. But the Thunder have no real front court. Jeff Green is a small forward playing out of position, and beyond that they have a couple of unproven youngsters and a couple of veterans not lusted after by anyone else. There is a lot of buzz about this being a break out team, but i think there still a year and another lottery pick away from making a playoff run.

Player to watch : Russell Westbrook
Durrant might win the scoring title, but the ultimate fate of this team is in Westbrook’s hands. Durrant isn’t developed enough to make players around him better, but as a point guard, whatever Westbrook can eke out of his supporting cast will determine how far this team evolves from last year.

Portland Trailblazers
The Trailblazers finished a shocking 4th in the West last season. They lost to a much more experienced Rockets team in the first round, but that was to be expected from a young team with no playoff experience. So this offseason they added no veteran leadership or playoff experience. After pursuing Hedo Turkoglu, who would have finally solved their small forward quandary, they settled on Andre Miller even though they already had two point guards on their roster. Brandon Roy is a stud, but beyond that they only have role players. LeMarcus Aldridge is an adequate big man, Steve Blake might be a better point guard than Miller, and Rudy Fernandez is really good, but Portland can not figure out how to use him (Answer: Use him how Orlando used Turkoglu) . The season is going to hinge on Greg Oden, and he’s going to be expected to start and contribute. If Oden can average 10 points and 10 boards, and if Portland get any sort of consistent production from the small forward position, then they will be playoff bound, if not Fernandez will surely be traded or sent back to Europe. Also, how crazy is this, the two highest paid players on this team are Andre Miller and Joel Pryzbilla, who aren’t even starters.

Player to watch : Brandon Roy
It would be Greg Oden, but it seems more likely he’ll break something as opposed to breaking out. It would be Rudy Fernandez, but again it seems unlikely Nate McMillian will spontaneous realize how to use him. That leaves Roy, and he’s easily the best player on the team anyway.

Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz were the last team in the playoffs last year, and they probably won’t fair much better this year. The team is essentially the same as last years pursuing the Washington Wizards philosophy of “if only we were healthy we’d be good”. Deron Williams might be the heir to Jason Kidd as the best point guard in basketball, and everything about this team hinges on him. Utah has two good power forwards, two decent centers, and they appear to have found a two guard in Ronnie Brewer to fill the vacuum left by Jeff Hornacek all those years ago. But Andrei Kirilenko has evaporated off the face of the earth, he used to be a stat machine like Shawn Marion, Marion has faded too, but Kirilenko is only 28, he should be in his prime. If they had another option at small forward, so they could bring Kirilenko off the bench in a unit with Kyle Korver, Ronnie Price, Paul Millsap and Kosta Koufos, then this team would be a contender. They would have had cap room if Kirilenko wasn’t making $16.5 million. There’s still a reasonable chance they will try to move Carlos Boozer’s $12.3 million contract during the season, and where they are in the standings will impact that decision.

Player to watch : Andrei Kirilenko
Their legitimacy as a contender depends on him. Deron Williams can only take this team so far, and Kirilenko used to put up All-Star numbers. They don’t need a lot, if he can just be a Bruce Bowen or Tayshaun Prince type then this team could be dangerous.

Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors
The Grizzlies only real competition for most dysfunctional team in the NBA, but thats how Don Nelson draws it up. Golden State’s best player, Stephen Jackson, has already demanded to be traded, and renounced his captaincy. The second best player, Monta Ellis, has publicly stated that he doesn’t want to share the back court with rookie Stephen Curry. Power forward Brendan Wright needs surgery to repair his chronically injured shoulder, and it’s still unclear exactly how Nelson plans to use Corey Maggette. However, there’s a real upside to this team, because of fire power on the bench featuring a group of young players ready to explode. Anthony Randolph was impressive in the summer league, and if he can become a starter so that Maggette can come off the bench then this team would have one of the best offensive second units in the NBA. There’s a lot of sour personalities on this team, but if Nellie can keep everyone on track this team will fight for one of the last playoff spots. If things go south the Warriors have a lot of tradable commodities, so expect Amare Stoudemire trade talk to resurface.

Player to watch : Stephen Curry
Curry was a spark-plug in college. He was more of a scorer than a distributer, having only played one season at point guard at Davidson. He can shoot the light out, but he lacks interior scoring ability, and at his diminutive size he might not be able to get the looks he got in college.

Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers finally used a lottery pick on a player that makes sense for them. It’s shocking enough to believe that maybe this really is the beginning on a new era for the other LA franchise. Blake Griffin is going to be good, but he probably won’t have the immediate impact that people are expecting. Baron Davis is apparently going to actually participate this season, Eric Gordon averaged 16.1 points in his rookie year, and Al Thornton might be ready to have break out season at both ends of the court. The Clippers have depth in the front court with Marcus Camby and new addition Craig Smith coming off the bench, but there is no depth in the back court, except for Rasual Butler and the diminishing athleticism of Ricky Davis. If there’s a major injury, which this team has suffered though in repeated season, then this team will be a doormat again. There might be some thrills, especially early in the season, but it’s going to be back to lottery for Clippers.

Player to watch : Baron Davis
It probably should be Blake Griffin, but the expectations are already way to high for him. Baron Davis has and can be All-Star calibre point guard, and when he’s playing at that level he can make this team competitive.

Los Angeles Lakers
Prohibitive favorite to repeat as NBA champions, the only team standing in their way is probably themselves. Phil Jackson’s teams always have a combustible personality to them, and honestly he manages it incredibly well. However, Ron Artest isn’t Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman or any of the other malcontents Phil Jackson has coached, he’s Ron Artest son! It isn’t a matter of if something will blow up, it’s a matter of how well the Lakers can pretend everything is ok when it does blow up. Aside from that, the Lakers are poised to repeat unless Andrew Bynum get hurt again. The Lakers don’t have enough depth to handle a front court player going down, especially if they face the Celtics in the Finals. Also, the Lakers only have 13 men on their roster, whats up with that?

Player to watch : Kobe Bryant
He’s the best offensive player to ever lace them up, end of story.

Phoenix Suns
Phoenix’s starting five isn’t so bad, even if two starters (Grant Hill and Steve Nash) are over 35. If Amare Stoudemire can avoid getting nicked up, or traded Phoenix can be competitive, but they’ll probably repeat as the last team out of the playoffs in the West. The Suns have no depth at any position, and are getting diminishing returns from scorers Jason Richardson and Leandro Barbosa. This team needs to rebuild, they’ve already lost most of pieces of their contending teams, and those teams never sniffed the NBA finals. Steve Kerr is a terrible General Manager, he brought in Shaq, he traded away his best defensive talent, and then signed a 35 year old Steve Nash to a two year extension. If the wheels fall off expect this team to be dismantled and sold for scrap.

Player to watch : Steve Nash
One of the most overrated players in NBA history, but at 35 he’s still the best player on this team.

Sacramento Kings
Sacramento is going to be near the top of draft again next season, and most of the Kings talk will probably center around where the club will being playing next season. Kevin Martin is a scoring machine, Spencer Hawes is an interesting young big man, and Rookie Tyreke Evans is going to get plenty time with the ball. I would expect Sacramento to make some moves during the season, but with ownership in flux it seems unlikely that any major changes will be made. The Kings will probably finish last in the west.

Player to watch : Tyreke Evans
Dark horse candidate for rookie of the year. It’s not clear he can play the point effectively, but with no clear alternative he’s going to start for the Kings. He’s been filling up the stat sheet, but he’s got to limit his turnovers.

College Football Top 25

	10/25/09	W/L	H/L	+/-	WR	Confrence	Last Week
1	Alabama	8-0	1/1	NC	3	SEC	HW Tennessee
2	Texas	7-0	2/4	NC	3	BIG 12	RW Missouri
3	Florida	7-0	2/3	NC	3	SEC	RW Mississippi State
4	Southern California	6-1	4/5	NC	3	PAC 10	HW Oregon State
5	Virginia Tech	5-2	3/5	NC	3	ACC	off
6	Penn State	7-1	6/6	NC	3	BIG 10	RW Michigan
7	Miami	5-2	7/7	NC	3	ACC	HL Clemson
8	Cincinnati	7-0	8/10	NC	3	BIG EAST	HW Louisville
9	Boise State	7-0	9/11	NC	3	WAC	RW Hawaii
10	Iowa	8-0	10/12	NC	3	BIG 10	RW Michigan State
11	Texas Christian	7-0	11/16	+2	3	MWC	RW Brigham Young
12	Oklahoma	4-3	8/12	-1	3	BIG 12	RW Kansas
13	Louisiana State	6-1	13/14	+1	3	SEC	HW Auburn
14	Ohio State	6-2	9/14	-2	3	BIG 10	HW Minnesota
15	Oregon	6-1	15/15	NC	3	PAC 10	RW Washington
16	Oklahoma State	6-1	16/18	NC	3	BIG 12	RW Baylor
17	Georgia Tech	7-1	17/20	NC	3	ACC	RW Virginia
18	West Virginia	6-1	18/21	+1	3	BIG EAST	HW Connecticut
19	Mississippi	5-2	19/22	+1	3	SEC	HW Arkansas
20	Houston	6-1	20/25	+2	3	C-USA	HW Southern Methodist
21	Pittsburgh	7-1	21/NR	NR	1	BIG EAST	HW South Florida
22	Brigham Young	6-2	18/22	-4	3	MWC	HL Texas Christian
23	Michigan	5-3	23/23	NC	3	BIG 10	HL Penn State
24	Notre Dame	4-2	24/NR	NC	2		HW Boston College
25	Arizona	5-2	25/NR	NR	1	PAC 10	HW UCLA

A Shorter Season

Playing tennis for a career doesn’t sound like the most taxing way to make a living, but more and more top tier players are struggling just to make it through the ATP schedule each year. The Tour used to be dominated by tournaments in Europe and The United States, but the game has truly become global, holding tournaments on every continent. The bulk of the schedule is from April to September, and most of those tournaments are still in Europe and The United States. New tournaments had to fill in around the existing schedule, which extended the season longer and longer. It also created a excess of travel early and late in the year, as players have to jump from one continent to the next. The season finally ends at the beginning of December, and then starts up again in early January. Some players end up with less than a month for their offseason. Rafa Nadal and Andy Roddick have been the most recent vocal supporters for a change in scheduling, but most of the top players including Roger Federer have openly talked about the need for an abreviated schedule. Pushing back the beginning of the season would be a welcomed change, but January and Feburary are summer months in the Southern Hemisphere. There are several big tournaments including the Australian Open. Players have complained for years that having a Grand Slam Tournament so early in the schedule makes the Australian Open very hard to prepare for, and for better or worse the Australian Open generates more surprise finalists because of this. However, the Australian Open overlaps Australia Day on January 26th, and there has been little momentum to move that tournament into February. After the U.S. Open ends in September the schedule starts to thin out, but after that there are still two ATP Master Series events, which have mandatory attendance, and the ATP World Tour Finals. The ATP Tour breaks down into 3 types of events, ATP Masters 1000, ATP 500, and ATP 250, the Grand Slam events are not technically part of the ATP tour. The numbers indicate how many ranking points the tournaments are worth. Players in the Top 30 are required to play in eight of the nine ATP Masters 1000 events, at least four of the ATP 500 events, and two ATP 250 events count towards a players ranking. The smaller 500 and 250 events try to schedule around the bigger tournaments in an attempt to attract as many top tier players as possible. The Top players miss most of these events anyway, so there is no reason not to overlap many of these smaller tournaments. The season should finish at the end of october, with the year end finals being played the first week of november. Anyone who plays tennis on a regular basis knows how much of a toll pounding around the court takes on your body. It’s surprising that more of the top players don’t face consistent injury problems. A shorter season would leave less room to rest during the season, but having a couple of months to recuperate at the end of the season would be far more valuable than a week here and a week there.

Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is one of most beautiful places in Africa, most commonly known for the Victoria Falls, which are twice as high as Niagara Falls. Zimbabwe began to be colonized by the British Government in the 1880’s. Cecil Rhodes received a mandate to form the Rhodes British South Africa Company giving him authority over the region. White pioneers arrived from the south, and settled in what would later become the capital, Harare. In the 1890’s there were two wars fought against the indigenous Matabele people, both uprisings were crushed, and their leaders were killed. After the second rebellion the region was renamed Rhodesia, and divided into North (Zambia) and South (Zimbabwe). In 1923 the BSA mandate ended, and the white minority opted for self-government, which created the Colony of South Rhodesia. A series of anti-black laws and policies were established, including restricting black ownership of land and access to education, both of which kept black Africans from voting. By the 1960’s colonialism was ending across Africa, and neighboring colonies were being granted independence and African majority rule. However, Southern Rhodesia like South Africa and Algeria had a very powerful minority of White Africans, which refused to except majority rule, and were willing to fight to preserve their control. In 1964 Ian Smith was elected Prime Minister of Southern Rhodesia, after his predecessor, Winston Field, was unable to secure independence for a white run state. Northern Rhodesia (Zambia) and Nyasaland (Malawi) had already been granted independence, and had been turned over to majority rule. The British Government wanted the same concessions from Southern Rhodesia before granting independence. Ian Smith responded by unilaterally declaring independence under white minority rule. The United Nations issued economic sanctions for Southern Rhodesia, the first time U.N. had ever adopted such an action. A guerrilla war started on several fronts, led by two by rival groups Zanu and Zapu, which operated out of neighboring countries. The U.K. and the U.S. repeatedly reached out to the Smith Government in an attempt to quell the violence and establish a more democratic rule. Smith claimed to support a 50/50 sharing of power, but at that time whites had 95% of the vote, but only made up 5% of the population. In 1970 a conservative British Government reached an agreement with Ian Smith, which proposed a gradual integration, but would allow white domination to continue in the short term. The agreement was rejected by the majority population, and only intensified the conflict, leading to the Bush War. The Bush War was extremely violent, with civilians consistently being targeted by both sides, fighting amongst the insurgents, and the use of mercenaries. The rebel groups received support from communist bloc countries, which led to many western groups to support the Rhodesian Government. In 1976 Henry Kissinger managed to get Smith to accept the principle of majority rule, and slowly he began the necessary steps to implement it. His reluctance to move swiftly led the bloodiest years of the Bush War, 80% of all casualties were suffered between 1977 and 1979. In 1979 the first multi-racial elections were held, but whites were guaranteed a third of the parliamentary seats, and would remain in control of most of the important institutions like the police, army and courts. Bishop Abel Muzorewa won the election becoming the first and only black prime minister of what was now called Zimbabwe Rhodesia. Ian Smith remained in Government as minister without portfolio, after losing a bid to be Minister of Defense. However, the election was boycotted by both major opposition groups because of the lack of proportional representation, and white domination of key institutions and ministries. The International community continued to refuse any diplomatic recognition of the state. In late 1979 the Lancaster House Agreement hammered out a peace with a new constitution and a guarantee of minority rights under majority rule. Robert Mugabe, leader of the Zanu-PF, became the first Prime Minister of Zimbabwe. His party won a majority of seats in Parliament, and in an act of unity he appointed his rival, Zapu leader Joshua Nkomo, to his cabinet. The Zanu and Zapu parties had long a long standing rivalry, and even fought each other during the Bush War. Sanctions were lifted, and Zimbabwe was diplomatically recognized internationally. However, the initial optimism for the Mugabe Government quickly began to fade. Many of the agreements he made with the previous administrations were ignored, and within two years he threw Nkomo out of his cabinet. Mugabe then sent the army into the west of the country to crush Zapu party, which was now in open rebellion. Thousands of civilians were killed, and Joshua Nkomo was forced into exile. Violence continued for several years, until Nkomo returned to the Government and ceded control of his party to Mugabe. Now that Mugabe had a one party monopoly, he then changed the constitution to become President and broadly extended his powers. Following the lifting of sanctions the economy of Zimbabwe rebounded, but after years of rampant corruption, and Mugabe’s disastrous land reform policy, the economy has slumped into quadruple digit inflation. The violent seizure of land, Mugabe’s use of the military, and his suppression of dissidents, had led this story full circle. Now, the E.U. and the U.S. have put sanctions on Zimbabwe again, the World Bank and IMF have stopped any economic support of the Government, and humanitarian groups are only willing to provide limited aid. After years of unimpeded power, a rival Morgan Tsvangirai, emerged from the newly formed Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Tsvangirai and the MDC won seats in a 2000 election, which limited Mugabe’s stranglehold on the Parliament, but in 2002 Mugabe was re-elected again in an election condemned as seriously flawed. Parliament then passed a law limiting media freedom, and removed E.U. election observers. More farmers were removed from their lands, and protests became increasingly violent. Tsvangirai was arrested twice, and charged with treason, but was eventually acquitted. Despite social unrest the Zanu-PF dominated the Parliamentary election in 2005, which were again widely seen as fraudulent. The Zanu-PF then won an overwhelming majority in the newly created Senate, this vote was boycotted by the MDC, which led to a split in its leadership. The crack down on demonstrations continued, and opposition leaders were harassed and beaten, many of them hospitalized. In 2008 the MDC claimed victory in both presidential and parliamentary elections, but the electoral body claimed Tsvangirai did not receive enough votes to avoid a run-off. Tsvangirai pulled out of the run-off, after it was clear that it was not going to be a free and fair vote. The U.S. and E.U. responded by increasing sanctions, but Russia and China vetoed proposed U.N. sanctions. Increased violence and demonstrations rocked the stability of the Mugabe Government. After months of negotiations led by South African President Thabo Mbeki, an agreement to share power between Mugabe and Tsvangirai was reached. Muagbe remained as President, and Tsvangirai became Prime Minister. The power sharing has been tumultuous at best, and it is unclear how much power Mugabe, who is now 85 years old, is willing to cede. However, the presence of Tsvangirai has brought the international community back into the fold, and the IMF has agreed to provide $400 million in support. Earlier this year retail prices fell for the first time after years of hyperinflation, and in June the Government began a review of the constitution. After decades of darkness there is a flicker of hope for a prosperous Zimbabwe, but continued standoffs between Tsvangirai and Mugabe cast doubts on wether the can truly and honestly share power. The story of Robert Mugabe is one that constantly repeats itself in history, the freedom fighter who overthrows the tyrant, only to become one himself.

College Football Top 25

Untitled Document

	10/18/09	W/L	H/L	+/-	WR	Confrence	Last Week
1	Alabama	7-0	1/1	NC	2	SEC	HW South Carolina
2	Texas	6-0	2/4	+2	2	BIG 12	NW Oklahoma
3	Florida	6-0	2/3	-1	2	SEC	HW Arkansas
4	Southern California	5-1	4/5	+1	2	PAC 10	RW Notre Dame
5	Virginia Tech	5-2	3/5	-2	2	ACC	RL Georgia Tech
6	Penn State	6-1	6/6	NC	2	BIG 10	HW Minnesota
7	Miami	5-1	7/7	NC	2	ACC	RW UCF
8	Cincinnati	6-0	8/10	+2	2	BIG EAST	RW South Florida
9	Boise State	6-0	9/11	+2	2	WAC	RW Tulsa
10	Iowa	7-0	10/12	+2	2	BIG 10	RW Wisconsin
11	Oklahoma	3-3	8/11	-3	2	BIG 12	NL Texas
12	Ohio State	5-2	9/12	-3	2	BIG 10	RL Purdue
13	Texas Christian	6-0	13/16	+3	2	MWC	HW Colorado State
14	Louisiana State	5-1	14/14	NC	2	SEC	Off
15	Oregon	5-1	15/15	NC	2	PAC 10	Off
16	Oklahoma State	5-1	16/18	+2	2	BIG 12	HW Missouri
17	Georgia Tech	6-1	17/20	+3	2	ACC	HW Virginia Tech
18	Brigham Young	6-1	18/19	+1	2	MWC	RW San Diego State
19	West Virginia	5-1	19/21	+2	2	BIG EAST	HW Marshall
20	Mississippi	4-2	20/22	+2	2	SEC	HW UAB
21	Nebraska	4-2	13/21	-8	2	BIG 12	HL Texas Tech
22	Houston	5-1	22/25	+3	2	C-USA	RW Tulane
23	Michigan	5-2	23/23	NC	2	BIG 10	HW Delaware State
24	Notre Dame	4-2	24/NR	NR	1		HL Southern California
25	Texas Tech	5-2	25/NR	NR	1	BIG 12	RW Nebraska

Quality Qualification

On Wednesday the U.S. Soccer Team won the CONCACAF qualification group for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.  U.S. had already qualified, but winning the group will hopefully put them into the top eight seeds for the World Cup, which would keep the U.S. from having to play soccer giants like Italy, Brazil or Spain in the Group stage of the competition.  The 2-2 tie against Costa Rica on Wednesday was fairly impressive considering we fell behind early against a squad that needed to win to qualify for the World Cup, and because of career threatening injury forward Charlie Davies suffered in a car accident early Tuesday morning.  The U.S. squad finished the year 11-6-2 in International play this year, including finals appearances in both the Gold Cup and Confederations Cup, but failed bring home silverware in both instances.  The Confederations Cup started with two of the most embarrassing performances in recent U.S. soccer history, Italy beat us 3-1 never really taking the match seriously, and Brazil clubbed us 3-o without breaking a sweat.  Despite losing our first two matches we managed to qualify for the Semi-finals with an improbable 3-0 win over egypt.  Then we beat world number one Spain in a match where they never really looked concerned about the U.S. squad until we scored a second goal late in the second half.  We met Brazil in the final, led 2-0 in the first half, but a refocused Brazilian squad took the pitch in the second have, and blew the doors off of us for a 3-2 win.  In the Gold Cup was hosted by the United States, which made us favorites to win.  The U.S. team cruised to the final with only a tie to blemish their record, only to lose 5-0 to Mexico in the final at Giants Stadium.  This was followed by another loss to Mexico at the Estadio Azteca, which was accompanied by many excuses about the venue and the altitude.  The U.S. squad started the season ranked 22nd in the FIFA World Rankings, and finished 11th, the highest ranked team outside of Europe.  Our final game this season is an international friendly at Denmark, a good test against a team we should beat, but we have a terrible record on European soil.  A lot of buzz started about this U.S. team and its chances in the upcoming World Cup, however, expectations should be tempered.  In the 2002 World Cup in Japan/South Korea expectations were low, and we made it all the way to the Quarter-finals, where we lost to Germany 1-0.  In the 2006 World Cup in Germany expectations were high, once again ranked in the top 12, but our struggles in Europe continued, only managing a single goal as they were eliminated in group play.  The South African venue for the 2010 World Cup will hurt European squads, which have never won a World Cup outside of Europe, and certainly favor the Brazilians, who have won the last two World Cups hosted outside of Europe.  It will also be the first World Cup in the Southern Hemisphere since the 1986 World Cup in Argentina.  South Africa will be in the middle of their winter, which is fairly temperate, but having watched the Confederations Cup, which was played during the same time of year, the cooler temperatures will certainly effect the play on the pitch.  The expectations should be for the U.S. team to advance out of the group stage regardless of which teams they end up grouped with.  Once in the knockout stage soccer fans should just hope for the best.  The U.S. team has a very good keeper, and players that can finish up front, but the back four’s performance is terribly inconsistent.  The U.S. U-20 team struggled in this years U-20 World Cup, losing to both Germany and South Korea 3-0, and was eliminated in group play.  Without a more effective youth soccer program, and without a legitimate top division soccer league, U.S. soccer is going to continue to be tier below the top International soccer programs.  At 11th in the world the U.S. is certainly overrated, and our performance against top tier competition bears that out, but if the U.S. somehow stumbles into a World Cup Semi-final it shouldn’t be too much of a surprise.

Human Selection

The concept of evolution was first postulated by Anaximander a full 500 years before the birth of Christ.  He was a Greek from the Milesian school of thinkers, and was a student of Thales, one of the first scientists in history.  Anaximander believed that humans had evolved from a more primitive vertebrate, fish.  Many scientists could observe the effects of evolution over generations of plants and animals with short life-spans.  By the 18th century Carolus Linnaeus and others believed that humans were closely related to apes.  However, it wasn’t until Charles Darwin published On The Origin of Species in 1859, in which he first described the process of natural selection.  He then published The Decent of Man from which we began the process of linking our evolution from apes all the way back to single celled organisms.  In fact all creatures that reproduce sexually start life as a single cell before we grow into the various multi-cellular organisms that inhabit the earth.  The process of Natural Selection states that species with genetic traits that make them more able to successfully reproduce will become more common, weening out members of the species that are genetically inferior.  Random mutations of individual genes drive the evolution of a species.  Species are pressured by their environment to continually adapt, and the species that respond to the changes survive and prosper.  For 3.8 billion years the only force dictating evolution was the engine of natural selection.  Species unwittingly vied for genetic dominance based entirely on random mutations that they neither understood nor could control.  Natural Selection explained that world perfectly, but today humans make the decisions that used  be left up to nature, both intentionally and accidentally.  10,000 years ago there was a mass extinction, party because of climate change, but also because humans had developed the tools to become the worlds most effective hunters.  It could be argued that sloths and mastodons where simply unable to evolve to the new environment, not getting the random genetic mutations to survive.  Not long after that humans started domesticating crops for agriculture, and a long process of homogenization of commercial plants began.  The effect of our subsistence on agriculture had a massive effect on the natural world.  Large areas of the world have been cleared, and planted with genetically modified species for our consumption.  Thousands of species have been eliminated through this process.  The domestication of animals some for work and some for food changed animals evolutionary future.  Dogs needed to evolve to do jobs that made it easier for us to survive, not just for their own prosperity.  Cows needed to evolve to feed us easier, so we could be prosper.  Our subsistence became less taxing, and as our numbers grew, civilizations began to develop.  Humans spread out rapidly converting the environment as they went.  Edible plants were grown en masse, and edible animals were often hunted to extinction.  The number of habitats that did not have a human imprint began to dwindle, slowly but surely we were effecting the evolution of every living things on earth.  Civilizations produced lots waste, and parasitic animals evolved to take advantage of this new environment.  Excessive waste and industrialization gave way to outright pollution of the environment that caused provoked mutations in species causing them to evolve out of control.  Today, humans selection dictates how the biosphere evolves.  Virus’s have evolve to defeat our vaccines,  we design bacteria to carry out specific jobs,  toxins we have created permeate most everything including our own bodies,  the oceans have almost been fished to the brink of mass extinction, and the same genetically modified potatoes and bell peppers can be found in grocery stores around the world.  Human selection is interfering if not entirely overriding natural selection all the time.  Even the act of preserving the environment  is tampering with the natural order.  Humans select what spaces and species are protected, dictate what population certain species can reach, and in some cases remove species determined to be invasive.  Our own evolution has changed away from natural selection, and relies on our ability to adapt to societal pressures, as apposed to the pressures of nature.  Being fat, ugly and unhealthy isn’t slowing many humans from reproducing.  The Human Genome Project provided the genetic blueprint for a human being, and as more is discovered about genes and genetic manipulation, the temptation to directly select our own genetics is growing.  Scientists are manipulate the dna of other creatures with intentional mutations, and  we have already been able successfully clone many species.  Furthermore, there have been experiments attempting to spontaneously create life by imitating the conditions that primordial life may have evolved out of.  In the future there maybe human assembled life created entirely outside the normal parameters of natural selection.  Human beings can’t really do anything to avoid or mitigate this influence, because that in and of it self would be a decision of human selection.  The actions that alter the world we live in are made with little to no regard to the ultimate consequences.  It should be apparent in the age of global warming that our actions could easily hurt our own ability to evolve and survive.  We can’t avoiding effecting the environment, but we should be more aware that every decision we make from the food we eat, to way we travel or even what we watch on television is going to change the earth and life that inhabits it.  If we can’t be more responsible then we flare out like a virus killed by our own success having consumed our host until it is no longer habitable for us, but fear not once the human element is removed natural selection will take over again, and we know that system works pretty well.

Something Out of Nothing

President Obama has reportedly decided to send 45,000 more troops into Afghanistan, 5,000 more than General McChrystal asked for in april.  The leaders of the Obama Administration are split on what strategy to pursue, and that delayed this decision for several months.  The Afghan people deserve to have a government that can provide them security and stability, but it is far to large a problem for the U.S. to solve.  There is no clear strategy for success and no satisfactory definition for success would be.  The war is already eight years old, and there is no end in sight.  Seventy precent of Afghanistan is not under the control of the government.  Afghanistan is bordered by six countries which either have no interest in nation building, or are actively sabotaging our efforts to pacify the country.  General Petraeus has pursued a new strategy of trying to split the rural population away from the Taliban, but troops of the ground have struggled to make much headway.  The Afghans experienced Taliban rule, and would certainly prefer something better, but with much of the country ungoverned, they would tolerate Taliban rule over complete lawlessness.  In places where U.S. forces have cleared out the Taliban, the local people have also cleared out, and U.S. troops have little success in getting any cooperation from civilians.  Americans are foreigners in Afghanistan, and despite good intentions, U.S. troops are still viewed as an occupying force.  Afghanistan is about 250,000 square miles in size, and with only 60,000 troops coalition forces can only occupy small parts of the country, so the Taliban always have someplace to move to.  It could take as many as 600,000 troops to effectively prosecute a counter insurgency in Afghanistan, adding a mere 45,000 is not going to enough of a difference.  The Taliban are mostly Sunni Pashtuns, who are led by Mohammed Omar, and suported from Pakistan by Siraj Haqqani, whose father fought the Russians in Afghanistan in the 1980’s.  The Taliban refuse to engage in large scale attacks, and are generally content with harassing U.S. forces.  Mohammed Omar knows that the U.S. can’t do this forever, and his straetgy is to sabotage any attempt at building an effective government.  Omar spends most of his resources on keeping popular support so that he can reclaim power when troops finally pull out.  He has even copied some U.S. strategies in appealing to public instead of out right intimidation, which is still used very consistently by the Taliban.  They have been fighting in Afghanistan off and on for more than twenty years.  The Taliban are part of the fabric of Afghan culture in the south and western provinces having slowly gaining power and territory over several decades.  If the U.S. wants to rid these provinces of the Taliban it could take decades.  In essence the U.S. would have to build an entirely new country out of nothing.  Attempts at building a productive economy have been stymied by rampant corruption, and a serious lack of any effective alternatives to growing poppies.  Many of the provinces are effectively narco-sates, and many others thrive largely on smuggling enterprises.  The Karzai government has been ineffective partly because of corruption and partly because of his tenuous grasp on power.  He has to ally himself with many of the provincial powers and allow them to run their areas without much interference because direct confrontation with them is not possible.  The Afghan army is small, less than 130,000 troops in total, and many local warlords have sizable militias of their own, which they have been able to keep by registering them as private security forces.  Karzai has no strong political power, and has shown little will to push for much of any reform in his government.  His re-election appears to be headed toward a second round of voting after wide-spread fraud has been discovered.  However, his main opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, ran on a platform of reform, but even with a possible run-off election it seems unlikely that he would be able to unseat Karzai.  With so much of the country outside the grasp of the central government in Kabul it is virtually impossible for any candidate to be capable of exerting any substantial change.  Without a large and effective army, without a healthy economy, and without a strong central goverment there is not going to be a successful outcome.  These essentials are not even close to fruition after eight years of war, and it is time to accept that a stable secure Afghanistan is not within the reach of American power.  Furthermore, if the strategic goal is to prevent al Qaeda from being able to launch attacks from Afghanistan then the mission has essentially succeeded already, and we can continue to keep it that way without being an occupying force in a hostile country.  The U.S. is spending more and more resources with diminishing returns, and as commanders continue to reduce expectations of what they can actually deliver in Afghanistan it is time to realize that what we have now is probably going to look very similar to what we will have eight years from now.  More importantly President Obama needs to be more concerned with the Taliban and al Qaeda in Pakistan.  Without a stable Pakistani Government that wants a strong Afghanistan, as opposed to a satellite state, it is going to be impossible to thwart the Taliban in Afghanistan.  The North and Eastern Provinces are run by warlords commonly referred to as the Northern Alliance, who are ethnically Tājik, are generally opposed to both the Taliban and al Qaeda.  They are considered allies by the Afghan Government, and did most of the fighting with U.S. support that initially liberated Afghanistan.  However, their autonomous rule is just as draconian as the Taliban, and are responsible for much of the corruption in the Karzai Government.  Eliminating the Taliban alone is not going to secure a free and democratic Afghanistan.  Even if the Taliban where pushed out, no one else would be able to govern that territory effectively.  The Obama Administration should continue to actively support the government in Kabul regardless of who wins the presidential election, and should invest heavily on building a strong military because thats the only authority that will be able to hold the country together.  The strongest tribe rules in a tribal society.  In some parts of Afghanistan U.S. forces are the strongest, but Afghans know that their presence is only temporary.  A strong Afghan army would be able to convince the people that the Taliban isn’t going to eventually return, and that the Kabul government can exert influence over at least a majority of the country.  Only then will they start cooperating in building a better country.  The U.S. should support Afghanistan vigorously, but no amount of troops is going to build something out of nothing.