The War On…

There has been an on going debate in Washington concerning the treatment of the numerous captives the US has acquired throughout the war on terror.  Much of the debate is semantic, centered upon the terminology the US Government uses, and the legal variations depending on how these captives are classified.  While Washington is torn over the legal ramifications of what definitions they choose to use, they are missing the fact that these words, their words, are characterizing are struggle against terrorism.  The choice of using the word war has drastic implications, by calling it a “War On Terror” or even worse “War On Muslim Extremism”, it forces people to choose sides.  Furthermore, terror is an intangible thing, there is no way to conduct a war against it.  It also empowers the people whose influence the US Government should be trying to mitigate.  Osama Bin Laden is a criminal, he is not representative on any state or body of people, he is not the general of an army let alone a soldier in a regular army, he is part of an international criminal conspiracy.  Osama Bin Laden has more in common with Don Corleone than he does with Nikita Kruschev, heads of state are not found on the FBI most wanted list like Bin Laden is, he is much smaller and less deadly than he is often portrayed.  However, when he is described in the context of an existential struggle, that the fate of the US hinges upon stopping this one man, it makes him far more powerful than he really is, and makes is that much easier to recruit people into his criminal enterprise.  It also builds him sympathy in the Muslim world that he might not enjoy if he were painted as a criminal, a murderer.  But as the war has continued, leading to the unjustified war in Iraq, his narrative of a War against Islam gains more credence, especially as our footprint in the Muslim world increases, with US forces conducting military operations in a greater number of countries.  The US has used the phrase “war on” repeatedly, most often in regards to internal struggles, and it has cause the same polarizing effect.  The War On Drugs and The War On Crime in the 1980’s rapidly devolved into a war on African-Americans, with a significantly higher arrest rate among African-Americans, and stiffer penalties being placed on drugs associated with poor African-American communities.  The result is an us versus them attitude, African-Americans against the police, by characterizing it as a war is very rapidly becomes one, once a line is drawn in the sand, even if you are a law abiding citizen, when an outside force is kicking down doors, and looking to arresting African-American men, you are going to be inclined to side with your community even if you don’t agree with what they are doing, and even today there are inner city areas across the US that local police call war zones, that urban militant attitude has survived.  The equally unsuccessful War On Poverty pitted the poor against powerful business interests looking to profit from urban development projects that simply redistributed the poor as opposed to lifting anyone out of poverty.  Anytime something is characterized as a war it becomes one, so when a phrase like “Global War On Terror” is used, it has a cacophonic effect on the world, and when the a phrase like “War On Muslim Extremeism” is used, it resonates across the Muslim world.  Those words are actually promoting an existential war between the US and Islam, and arguably the US Government has done more to aid Al Qaeda than any of the grainy videos Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri have released.  We are fighting a war in Afghanistan, the Taliban is a political entity that we are engaged with, prisoners in Afghanistan should be treated under the Geneva Convention, not packed into cages in Bagram, where people will on become more isolated and radicalized.  In Iraq it is much murkier, US forces are going to be drawn down this year, and their combat role has significantly been reduced, and mostly the Iraqi’s are handling their own prisoners.  However, when a terrorist is apprehended outside of these battlefields they must be treated like criminals, tried in courts, and serve prison sentences in actual civilian prisons.  There is no need to paint these criminals as anything more threatening than they really are, it only serves their interests, isolates us from the international community, and forces Americans to compromise the laws that are designed to protect everyone.

NBA Stretch Run : The East

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Boston Celtics 36-19

Everything regrading this franchise has to be qualified with “when healthy” because that has been Boston’s biggest struggle over the past two seasons.  The Celtics have championship potential, but it there are simply to many obstacles to expect them to win the Eastern Conference Finals.  Kevin Garnett has faded from a 20 and 10 machine to a hobbled 14 points and 7 boards, but even in his deteriorated state his energy is essential to the Celtics defense.  Ray Allen is toying with career low stats across the board, and his 3 point shot isn’t as reliable as it once was.  Paul Pierce is the exact same story Allen, except that his 3 point shot is as good as ever.  Free agents Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels have not even really participated, Daniels has missed half the games so far, and while Wallace has actually played in almost every game, it’s hard to say that he’s actually been playing.  The flip-side is the young talent the Celtics have in Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins.  Rondo is having his best season so far with career highs in points, assists and steals, and Perkins is one of the best defensive centers in the NBA.  The signing of Wallace seems to have really widened the rift between the young stars, and the aged “Big Three”, and with everyone but Allen signed for at least next season it’s going to continue to cause chemistry problems for the Celtics.  The addition of Nate Robinson will add some punch to their bench, but it is not going to be enough to make them a serious threat to come out of the East.  The Celtics are going put up a serious fight regardless of who the end up facing, they have only dropped one game against their potential first round match-ups, but don’t expect to see Boston in the Conference Finals.

Player to watch : Rajon Rondo

Rondo is the Celtics best player putting up 14.0 points, 9.7 assists, 4.4 rebounds and a monster 2.5 steals a game, and he shoots an impressive .521 from the field.  Rondo had several huge performances in the playoffs last season, and Boston will only be a successful as their youngest star can be.

Toronto Raptors 31-24

After a tumultuous start Toronto has pulled it together, with a 24-13 record since December 1st.  Chris Bosh is averaging career highs in points and rebounds heading into free agency this summer.  Hedo Turkoglu’s numbers have been terrible, he’s had a lot of up and down performances, but his play may be affected by family issues.  The Raptors other big man, Andrea Bargnani, is also having a career year, solidifying him as a regular starter.  DeMar DeRozan has been a little disappointing, Toronto has desperately needed an athletic 2 guard, but DeRozan has looked a little shaky and is a defensive liability.  The point guard spot has become a regular quandary for the Raptors, who have been platooning players at the position for several seasons, the current combination of Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack is not much better than any of the others were.  The biggest weakness for the Raptors is their lack of a bench, Marco Belinelli is have a nice season, but when he’s your best bench player your in trouble.  Toronto looks to be headed for the fifth seed in the playoffs, where they will match-up against either Boston or Atlanta, teams that Toronto has not beaten so far this season.  Toronto is soft inside, neither Bosh or Bargnani are much of a defensive presence in the paint, bad defense paired with a thin bench will make Toronto a certain first round out, despite their recent improvement.

Player to watch : Hedo Turkoglu

Turkoglu has really struggled all season, and the Raptors desperately need production from him for them to have any chance in the playoffs.  Furthermore, the Raptors invested over $40 million over the next four years in Hedo, if Bosh opts out, which seems likely, Toronto won’t have the flexibility cap-wise to bring in someone to replace him, unless Bryan Colangelo can figure out a sign and trade.

Philadelphia 76ers 22-34

Philadelphia fans are rooting for other teams at this point, hopping to increase their lottery odds, and it’s understandable, given the fact that the 76ers are already at next years luxury tax threshold, the draft may be the only way to alter their roster.  This is another franchise that should consider firing everyone in the front office, choosing not to pursue re-signing Andre Miller, whose departure has devastated the 76ers, and the signing of Elton Brand before last season, who fits their offense even less without a point guard like Miller.  The return of Allen Iverson appears headed to a premature end, making the 76ers the third consecutive team to do so, and probably marking the end of Iverson’s NBA career.  Andre Iguodala’s shooting and scoring numbers are down, but he’s averaging career highs in assists and rebounds, and with Thaddeus Young and Maurice Speights, the 76ers have a good young core.  Philadelphia’s future may hinge on the development of rookie point guard Jrue Holiday, who at times looks like Rajon Rondo as a rookie, but without a ball handler other than Iguodala the 76ers are going to continue to struggle.  The 76ers should have been able to find a way to get into the playoffs with the talent they have, its a little surprising to see them struggle this badly.  Philadelphia is possible landing spot for Gilbert Arenas, an Arenas for Brand would solve issues for both teams, or a Arenas for the expiring contracts of Samuel Dalembert and Jason Kapono would provide salary cap relief for the Wizards.

Player to watch : Andre Iguodala

Iguodala is the team’s franchise player, and it was a good decision on the part of 76ers not to trade him.  His scoring is down this season, but he has compensated with 6.9 boards and 5.8 assists a game, the only forward who handles the ball more than Iguodala is LeBron.

New York Knicks 19-37

The Knicks unbelievably managed to get all the cap room they desired at the trade deadline, putting them in position to make a run at two max contract players.  It’s a huge gamble, but with so many free agents, almost half the league enters free agency with LeBron this summer, it may be possible to build a championship calibre team entirely through free agency.  With the top tier teams already monstrously over the luxury tax threshold and the cap shrinking next season the Knicks can establish themselves as the premiere free agent destination if they can land two of the max contract players.  However, if they can’t do that then all that cap room is either not going to get used or wasted on lesser talent.  Tracy McGrady may have already hurt himself in only his second appearance as a Knick, he needs to show he can still play, and play in a team concept, or possibly face exile like Allen Iverson faced last offseason.  David Lee and Al Harrington are the Knicks two best players, both are free agents, Harrington may be re-signable at a reduced cost, Lee is going to want to get paid for his production, but New York has been reluctant to sign him to a long year deal.  Whatever happens next year the Knicks will at least be out of the shadow of the Isaiah Thomas era (I saw him on TV last week saying that his real talent was being a GM not a coach, given his track record, if he says he is a better GM than a coach, why would anyone ever hire him as a coach?).  Regardless of new talent, Mike D’Antoni will never win a championship.

Player to watch : Wilson Chandler

There’s not much left on the Knicks roster after the flurry of cap space trades Donnie Walsh made right before the trade deadline.  Chandler is the only young talented player on the Knicks roster.

New Jersey Nets 5-52

Who keeps giving Kiki Vandewghe NBA jobs?  Why hasn’t congress assembled a panel to verbally abuse the worst general managers in basketball?  They’ve done it to the heads of other poorly run businesses, and something has to be done to protect the fans from front office decisions that cripple organizations with losing season after losing season.  The Nets are horrible even though they have several nice pieces in Devin Harris and Brook Lopez, but Harris has struggled shooting an abysmal .392, while Lopez has impressed and is possibly an All-Star in the making.  Not much of the remaining roster is returning next season, so expect an overhaul, but the Nets are unlikely to be able to lure a max contract player.  The Nets will have the best shot at the first pick in the draft lottery, which in and of itself would be a huge boost the franchise, but the lottery can be unkind, and with only a few franchise players in the draft New Jersey is desperate for that first pick.  Regardless, the Nets are going to be back in lottery next year.  Prediction : New Jersey will tie the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers worst ever record of 9-73.

Player to watch : Brook Lopez

This is easy, with Devin Harris struggling, and with virtually nothing else on the roster, Lopez is having a fantastic sophomore season.  Averaging 19.1 points and 8.9 rebounds, New Jersey can look forward to Lopez being a 20 and 10 franchise player for years to come.

CENTRAL DIVISION

Cleveland Cavaliers 44-14

The Cavs have the best record in the NBA, and signs point to a Lakers vs. Cavs Finals, but at this point last season everybody was thinking the exact same thing.  What is most impressive about the Cavaliers is that, like the Lakers, they have played at a really high level despite many set-backs.  The season began with Delonte West El Mariachi incident, and the incorporation of Shaquille O’Neal, West has continued to be in and out of the lineup, but Shaq has slowly found his niche, and hopefully playing him limited minutes will mean he’ll be at his best in the playoffs.  Furthermore, the Cavs have dealt with injuries, most notably Mo Williams.  The deadline trade for Anatwan Jamison, was coup for Danny Ferry, who has struggled to put a strong team around LeBron.  Luckily the NBA won’t stop Zydrunas Ilgauskas from return to Cleveland when he is bought out by the Wizards, but in the future that trade loop hole should be closed because the Cavs got Jamison for essentially nothing.  Leon Powe will return from injury this week, giving Cleveland added depth in the front court.  However, the same questions from the Orlando series linger with the Cavaliers, Orlando will still be a tough match-up, but their potential first round match-up against the Bobcats is a nightmare.  Reminiscent of the Golden State/Dallas 8 vs 1 match-up a few years back, Charlotte has beaten the Cavs all three meetings this season, with Cleveland struggling again to match-up against two large perimeter players, which appears to be their kryptonite.  Cavs fans need to root for either a Bobcats win streak to raise their seed or a losing streak to end their playoff hopes because there is no way that Cleveland face Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson again.  There is no doubt that the Cavs have to be favorites in the East, and if they reach the Finals they should be able to topple the Lakers, and they might make it look easy, but only if they avoid series against the Bobcats, Magic and Nuggets, all of whom could beat Cleveland in a seven game series.

Player to watch : LeBron James

LeBron is the best player in basketball, and remarkably he continues to improve each season.  This year he has a career high in points 30.0 and assists 8.4, and is shooting over .500 from the field for the first time in his career, but if he intends to shoot five 3 point shots a game he needs to shoot better than .350 from beyond the arc.  Another MVP title seems to be in his future, but without a title it might not seem justified.

Chicago Bulls 29-27

In back to back seasons the Bulls have been one of the more active teams at the trade deadline, last year adding Brad Miller and John Salmons to push them into the playoffs, this year Chicago moved out more talent than they brought in, sending Salmons and Tyrus Thomas away for expiring contracts.  The offseason decision to not re-sign Ben Gordon really hurt the Bulls’ offensive effectiveness, but to keep him Chicago would have had to overpay, and the team is on pace to better it’s record from last season.  The salary dump before the deadline will allow the Bulls to pursue a max contract player, Chris Bosh seems like their target.  The Bulls are clearly thinking more about the future than the playoffs this year, where they could match-up against Boston again, the most exciting series from last year’s playoffs.  Even if the the Bulls don’t make much noise this year, the future is bright for Bulls fans.  Point guard Derrick Rose is scoring almost 20 points a game, and was named to his first All-Star game.  Joakim Noah has slowly developed into an effective big man, averaging better than 10 points and 11 boards a game, after looking lost in his first two years, and rookie Taj Gibson has been a major contributor, making easier for the Bulls to finally part ways with Thomas.  Without Gordon or Salmons is hard to imagine the Bulls making much if any noise in the playoffs, but a Rajon Rondo vs Derrick Rose first round match-up would be a great showcase for two of the best young guards in basketball.

Player to watch : Derrick Rose

Without Rose the Bulls would be a cellar team, and his increased scoring has kept them competitive, and landed them some marquee wins.  Rose is going to have to be epic for the Bulls to have any chance in the playoffs, but the team is definitely more focused on next year.

Milwaukee Bucks 27-28

Only in the East can a team be under .500 and still make the playoffs.  The Bucks are battling with Charlotte for the last playoff spot in the East.  It would be a major coup for Milwaukee to make the playoffs considering the roster that they are working with.  Brandon Jennings has impressed as a rookie, a healthy Andrew Bogut is putting up career highs in points 16.0, boards 10.4 and blocks 2.3, and Luke Ridnour is having a great season as a role-player.  However, Michael Redd suffered another season ending injury, putting his NBA career in jeopardy, and the rest of the roster is weak, with Carlos Delfino, Charlie Bell and Ersan Ilyasova all having to play lots of minutes.  The trade deadline addition of John Salmons gives them some desperately needed offense, but that may not be enough to keep them ahead of the Charlotte Bobcats.

Player to watch : Brandon Jennings

The Michael Redd era may be over, so it will be up to Jennings to take over the franchise, he is still really rough around the edges, but he has shown enough maturity to believe he will continue to develop.

Detroit Pistons 21-35

A playoff stalwart for most of the previous decade, which made Joe Dumars the toast of NBA general managers, now they are looking at a future of lottery picks, and judging by Dumars genius decision to draft Darko Millic over Carmelo Anthony, Detroit fans have every right to be nervous about their franchise’s future.  Richard Hamilton is still putting up good numbers, but he’s much less efficient in getting those numbers.  Hamilton is under contract for another three years at $12.6 million a season, a contract that Dumars would love to move, but at 32 years old there might not be much of market unless the Celtics like him as a Ray Allen replacement.  Tayshaun Prince has fallen off quite a bit, and is another player that Dumars wants to move, his contract expires next season, but Dumars would certainly have to take back a bad contract in any effort to move him.  Knicks fans can look at Detroit as their worse case scenario heading into free agency, Detroit had the most cap room last season, but could only end up with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villaneva, over payed for both of them, and not surprisingly their numbers are way down.  The worst thing for the Pistons is that Jason Maxiell is apparently eating his way through his $20 million contract.  On the positive side, Rodney Stuckey is one of the best young guards that no one talks about, and rookie Swede Jonas Jerebko is having one of biggest impacts out of the second round of the draft.

Player to watch : Rodney Stuckey

Stuckey is averaging career highs across the board now that he has cemented himself as a starter, with little to no offense from the front court, both Stuckey and Hamilton have had a heavy scoring load and that may have driven their shooting percentages down.

Indiana Pacers 19-37

The Pacers are headed back to lottery, hoping for some magic because their roster is a wasteland after star forward Danny Granger.  Granger is fantastic, but he is constantly nagged by injuries.  Almost the entire roster is under contract next season, so Pacers fans will have to endure another rough season in 2010-11, however, after that Granger, Dahntay Jones and AJ Price are the only players under contract.  This team really should have moved Murphy, because without his rebounding the Pacers would have probably lost every game for the remainder of the season, improving their lottery position, which seems to be the strategy at this point.

Player to watch : Danny Granger

Granger was an All-Star last season, but again he has been hurt by injuries, limiting his effectiveness.  The Pacers have to figure out a way keep him on the court, because without the franchise player on the court this team is never going to develop.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

Orlando Magic 38-19

The Magic spent a lot of money this offseason to remake the roster of team that won the Eastern Conference last year.  Vince Carter is huge upgrade over Courtney Lee, and while the loss of Hedo Turkoglu hurt the teams fourth quarter chemistry, Hedo hasn’t been playing very well this year anyway.  Carter has become increasingly comfortable in Orlando, and after a long series of rotation experiments to figure out how to use Orlando’s new pieces, it seems like Stan Van Gundy is finally content with what he has.  Losing Rafer Alston may have been a bigger loss than Turkoglu, Orlando’s offense was much more fluid with Alston in the playoffs, and while Alston is a terrible point guard, his style is perfect for a rebound machine like Dwight Howard.  The Magic still match-up favorably with the Cavs, but the Lakers still represent a problem with their formidable size.  Expect the Magic to muscle their way past the Celtics, and meet the Cavs in an Eastern Conference Finals rematch.

Player to watch : Dwight Howard

When Howard is dominant, the Magic are dominant, but Howard has failed to develop a balanced enough offensive game to be consistently dominant at both ends of the court.  The Magic can beat the Cavs in a seven game series, but only if Howard can step up.

Atlanta Hawks 35-20

Two years ago the Hawks made the playoffs, last year they made the second round, so the question is can they topple one of the big three in the East?  Maybe.  The addition of Jamal Crawford has changed the dynamic of this team, accepting coming off the bench to give the Hawks the best sixth man in the league.  Both Josh Smith and Al Horford are having career years, and both of them should have been All-Stars (Smith was left off the All-Star Team).  Led by Joe Johnson this team seems to have everything they need to compete with the best teams in the league.  However, Atlanta does lack depth in the front court, they match-up great against the Celtics, but it hard to imagine the Hawks toppling either the Magic or the Cavs.  This team is young, and if Atlnata can re-sign Joe Johnson this summer, this team will make a Finals appearance sooner rather than later.

Player to watch : Joe Johnson

The only shooting guards better than Johnson are Kobe and Wade. Johnson has been playing an absurd number of minutes, and with Crawford on the bench, he has played a few less minutes each game. It hasn’t hurt Johnson’s numbers, and Crawford has given the Hawks another creative scorer.

Miami Heat 29-29

It’s been a rough year for the Heat, it appears that they will limp into the playoffs, but they are not going to have much of a say once they get there.  This team will get a major overhaul this summer, with enough cap room to re-sign Dwyane Wade and another max contract player.  In fact the Heat only have two players under contract next season, Michael Beasley and Daequan Cook, so Wade is going to be playing with a bunch of new faces, and with so many free agents available, the Heat could make a major turn around next season.  Beasley remains an enigma, there’s definitely a lot of talent there, but there isn’t a lot of improvement, his numbers are only marginally better than his rookie season, and he is seeing seven more minutes per night.  Beasley may have already reached his ceiling, at least in the environment he’s in, being moved to a smaller market on team with different expectations might be the best thing for him.  Dwyane Wade seemed to dial it back a little this season, realizing that the team wasn’t going to make a title run, which was disappointing, the Heat should be better than .500.

Player to watch : Dwyane Wade

Not exactly playing at an MVP level this season, but still one of the top five players in the league.

Charlotte Bobcats 27-28

Charlotte has yet to make the playoffs, and this might be the year they break through.  Larry Brown and Michael Jordan have been tinkering with the roster all season, landing Stephen Jackson for practically nothing, and adding Tyrus Thomas at the trade deadline.  Gerald Wallace is having a career year, making his first All-Star Game, and leading the team in rebounding.  The Bobcats should have enough to get the last playoff spot, which would put them in a first round match-up against the Cavs, who they have defeated all three meetings this season.  Which could end up being the best first round series, in a year where the top seeds will likely cruise in their first round series’.

Player to watch : Stephen Jackson

Jackson is one of the most talented perimeter players in the league, and at his size he is a serious match-up problem.  If the Bobcats can make the playoffs, his team can rely on his experience in upsetting the one seeded Dallas Mavericks a few years back.

Washington Wizards 20-34

After the season the Wizards have endure some lottery magic would go a long way to softening the destruction of this team.  After the suspension of Gilbert Arenas, the front office has elected to quite literally blow the team up, something they should have done two years ago, before they signed Arenas to a huge long term contract.  Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson and Brendan Haywood have all been shipped out for little more than cap relief.  Josh Howard the only usable peice they acquired promptly tore his ACL, and is out for the season.  If they elect not to use the team option of Howard, the Wizards will have a lot of cap room to work with, but it’s hard to imagine that they could bring in better talent.  The Wizards had gone as far as they could with the core that they had been relying on for several years, this break up was inevitable, and if they can move Arenas then they can really start this franchise over.

Player to watch : Randy Foye

If anyone is watching…

NBA Stretch Run – The West

SOUTHWEST DIVISION

Dallas Mavericks 35-21

The Mavericks made the most impressive trade deadline move by acquiring Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood for Josh Howard.  Howard entered the league with a great deal of promise, but his behavior and injuries have slowed his career to a crawl.  The Mavs have been missing a piece to put them over the top, and they have been waiting for Howard to evolve into the guy, and had been reluctant to trade him in the past.  Butler gives them the perimeter presence that they desperately  needed, and Haywood is a huge upgrade over Erick Dampier.  The Mavericks gave up some of their depth to complete this trade, and probably hope for a Drew Gooden buyout, so they can bring him back for the playoffs.  Dirk Nowitzki is having another amazing season, Sean Marion has embraced his role more than he has in the past, and despite his age and diminished numbers, Jason Kidd is still more effective than most point guard in the league.  Rick Carlisle should be able to incorporate his new talent, and the Mavs should meet Denver in the second round of the playoffs, expect a monster series, but whomever emerges may not have enough to topple the Lakers. What’s the odds on DeShawn Stevenson staying out of trouble for the remainder of the season in Dallas?

Player to watch : Caron Butler

Arguably the best player the Wizards had, and one of the most overlooked perimeter players in the league.  He can play at either wing spot, giving Dallas the ability to play big with him at the 2, and small with him at the 3.  Hopefully he can stay healthy which has derailed him in the past.

San Antonio Spurs 31-23

San Antonio had a magnificent run in the first decade of this century, winning three NBA Championships, but the era of dominance for this core group is at an end.  Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are both nearing the end of their careers, and with their increasingly limited abilities, Tony Parker’s inability to be the team’s centerpiece is exposed.  Richard Jefferson still hasn’t been able to figure out his role on this team, and the rotation players are not as effective as they once were, San Antonio’s bench has always been a strength.  DeJuan Blair was the steal of the draft, and George Hill continues to develop into a good utility guard, without their contributions the Spurs would still be floundering around .500.  If San Antonio can get a four or five seed in the playoffs they may be able to sneak into the second round, but that would only mean that the Lakers would hammer them.

Player to watch : Tim Duncan

Duncan is possibly the best power forward of all time, but this season has been a struggle.  He has played limited minutes some nights, and sat out the second game in back to backs.  San Antonio has a serious front court weakness, so Duncan is going to have fill that void if San Antonio is wants to advance in the playoffs.

Houston Rockets 28-27

The Rockets seemed like they were headed to the playoffs again this season, but they have stumbled into the All-Star break.  Tracy McGrady has finally been moved, and in the Rockets received Kevin Martin in return.  Martin is a scorer, which Houston sorely needed, especially in late game situations.  Houston also acquired Jared Jefferies and Jordan Hill both of whom will see playing time, but lost Carl Landry, who had developed into a key rotation player over the last two seasons.  The Rockets biggest problem is their defense, and Jefferies is one of the better perimeter defenders, and hopefully the new additions will spark some more inspired play.  Ultimately the Rockets playoff hopes hinge on wether Phoenix and Portland collapse down the stretch, and they will probably finish as the last team out.

Player to watch : Aaron Brooks

Trading Rafer Alston was the best move Houston has made in several years, and the result is the emergence of a young talented point guard in Aaron Brooks.  However, for Houston to be a serious contender, Brooks is going to have to elevate his level of play, and more importantly become more consistent, it will interesting to see how he adapts to playing with Martin, who handles the ball a lot for a shooting gaurd.

New Orleans 30-26

Chris Paul is hurt,  New Orleans is done.  Barring a lottery miracle, or some serious tankage, New Orleans will not have a very enticing draft pick, and will still have many holes to fill with little cap space to work with.  Rookies Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton have been a pleasant surprise, and have ample playing time with Paul’s injury.  Beyond that the team is a disaster.  David West is well on his way to another Weberesque season of meaningless stats.  Offseason addition Emeka Okafor is having his worst season, and Hornets fans can look forward to seeing him for another four seasons, in the 2013-14 season New Orleans will being paying him $15.5 million for 8 points and 6 six rebounds.  Peja Stojakovic and Morris Peterson are healthy for once, but combined, they only average 18.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.2 assists at a cost of $20.4 million this season, and at age 33 both players will be under contract next season for $21.9 million.  James Posey has just been mailing it in this year, having turned two successful title runs as a sixth man into a multi-year contract two seasons ago.  Julian Wright has not showed much potential to develop into a rotation player, and the rest of the roster are players pulled out of retirement in an effort to keep costs down.  Everyone in the front office should be fired, and sell the team to someone, anyone else because this team is going to be trending down for several years after finishing second in a very competitive west only two seasons ago.  Although, if they were still in Charlotte, and the Eastern Conference they would be a playoff team.

Player to watch : Darren Collison

I wasn’t convinced Collison had what it takes to be a serious NBA contributor, but he has been one of the few bright spots for the Hornets.

Memphis Grizzlies 28-27

Memphis has been the most interesting story of the year.  At first it was for the car wreck that the beginning of the season was.  Iverson signed right before the season, Iverson released right after the season began.  But after a rocky start the young Grizzlies are on the verge of being playoff contenders, and are one of the more exciting teams to watch.  Rudy Gay is finally playing at an All-Star level, he needs to rebound better, but at least he has started playing defense.  OJ Mayo has been surprisingly willing to accept being the third option, even though he is a star in the making in his own right.  But the real story has been the evolution of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.  Zach is putting up 20 and 10 like always, but in order to get those numbers he doesn’t have to suffocate the rest of the offense for the first time in his career, and luckily the young guns have accepted that Zach gets to eat first.  Marc Gasol is closing in on his brother’s(All-Star Pau Gasol) numbers, and may eventually end up a 20-10 guy just like Randolph.  Unfortunately Mike Conley isn’t ever going to develop into a legitimate starting point guard, and the Grizzlies need to address that position this offseason.  Rookie Hasheem Thabeet has looked about as ineffective as Greg Oden, at least Thabeet can get on the court without shattering (as a rookie Thabeet is actually the third highest paid Grizzly, making more than both Mayo and Gay).  The bench is the biggest weakness, the Grizzlies just don’t have enough depth, and thats one of the reasons they get completely killed on the road.  Memphis won’t make the playoffs this season, but for the first time in a while they are at least trending up, and a few good moves could put them in the playoffs next season.  Rudy Gay is a restricted free agent ($4.4 million qualifying offer), with all the other free agents this summer, hopefully Memphis can keep Gay without having to overpay for him.

Player to watch : Zach Randolph

Z-bo an All-Star?  It actually happened, and he actually deserved it.  One of the more interesting stories of the season, after everyone hammered general manager Chris Wallace for trading for him.

NORTHWEST DIVISION

Denver Nuggets 37-19

Carmelo Anthony is LeBron James’ only real competition for MVP, LeBron will win it, but if Carmelo may be able to steal enough votes to make it interesting if he plays his best basketball down the stretch.  Furthermore, the Nuggets appear to be the only real competition to the Lakers in the Western Conference.  The only problem is consistency, Denver struggles to play at a high level at both ends of the court not just from game to game, but sometimes quarter to quarter.  Carmelo is playing at level that moves him past Kobe Bryant and DeWayne Wade to be the second best player in the league, and Chauncey Billups continues to be the most valuable player that nobody talks about.  However, beyond those two there are a lot of questions, Kenyon Martin, Nene and Aaron Afflalo round out a nice starting five, but the bench doesn’t have the punch it did last season.  JR Smith is probably the best scorer in the league that doesn’t start, but putting him in late game situations pulls a perimeter defender off the court, and Ty Lawson is one of the biggest surprises to come out of the draft, but his lack of experience will hurt the team in the playoffs, probably opening up more playing time for Anthony Carter.  The front court rotation players are the real problem, Denver needed to make an addition before the trade deadline because they are left with Chris Anderson, Malik Allen and Johan Petro to back-up Martin and Nene.  The Lakers size advantage and the Nuggets inconsistency are going to kill Denver’s chances in a seven game series, and now that the Mavericks have bolstered their roster they may get tangled in a tough seven game series with Dallas, but when Denver plays it’s best they can and have beat the best in NBA.

Player to watch : Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo may be runner up for MVP, but he’s playing at the highest level of his career.  A recent shoot out with the Cavs illustrated how good Melo really is, when he made several clutch shots to beat LeBron on his home floor.

Utah Jazz 36-19

Utah has somehow snuck it’s way to the third best record in the West, but considering Utah chose to ship it’s starting shooting gaurd to Memphis for nothing, in order to avoid the luxury tax, the Jazz may not be able to hold onto that loft position.  Utah, as always, has a dominant record at home 22-7, but struggles on the road 12-12.  Ronnie Brewer was not putting up starting 2-guard numbers, but with him gone the Jazz are left with a 10 day contact player, and a rookie to fill that void.  Sundiata Gaines (the 10 day contract player) had the best moment of the season, when on the last day of his contract he hit a game winning shot to beat the Cavs in Utah, the Jazz elected to sign him to another 10 day contract, and then ultimately signed him for the rest of the season.  But the fact that Utah decided to move Brewer, Eric Maynor and Matt Harpring without getting anything in return indicates that despite recent success, the Jazz don’t consider themselves anything more than a first round wash out, and thats exactly what will happen to them.  However, the future could be brighter, they have over $20 million coming of their books in consecutive seasons, allowing the Jazz to reorganize around a new coach, after long time coach Jerry Sloan inevitably retires.

Player to watch : Deron Williams

Picking the best point guard in the league has become tricky over the last few seasons with a wealth of young talent at the position, but it has to Deron Williams, he has the best blend of all the skills and intangibles needed to be an elite point guard.  Hopefully he can get a better blend of talent around him next year.

Oklahoma City Thunder 33-21

The Thunder are not exactly a huge surprise, but they are going to make the playoffs a year earlier than I expected.  They have been up and down, which is to be expected of a team that is so young, but what is surprising is that this team is competitive against the best teams in the league, and as long as they can stay in the sixth spot or better in the West they could be a dangerous first round opponent, possibly dragging a superior team to seven games, like the upstart Bulls did to the Celtics last season.  Kevin Durrant will probably get some MVP votes, and has a shot at the scoring title, and there is so much he can improve on still.  Durrant’s passing is getting better all the time, and his defense awareness is improving, he seemed lost at times in previous seasons.  Russell Westbrook is quickly becoming another exciting young guard, but still needs to develop as a true point guard which may never completely happen.  James Harden and Jeff Green round out a great young core, but after that there isn’t much to work with, just a whole bench full of journeymen.  The front court is especially weak, and consistent rebounding can be a problem for the Thunder.  The Thunder have been careful with assembling this roster, and have three contracts expiring this summer(Nick Collison at $6.75 million is the biggest contract they have next season), they don’t need a max contract player (they have Durrant), but if they could sign several role players they could rapidly become a contender just like the Cavs turn around.

Player to watch : Kevin Durrant

Durrant in the playoffs is going to be great, possibly against Carmelo and the Nuggets in the first round, the two best scorers in the NBA going at it.  Carmelo is making the transition to an all around player, hopefully Durrant will evolve the same way.

Portland Trailblazers 32-26

Portland is just barley hanging on to the last playoff spot, which is miraculous considering that nearly every player on the opening day roster has been injured at some point this season.  Greg Oden is done for the season again, and at this point a viable NBA career seems unlikely, his back up Joel Pryzbilla is out for the season as well.  At the trade deadline Portland sent Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake to the Clippers for Marcus Camby.  Camby is a great addition, but they gave up their two best three  point shooters, and will keep their rotation abbreviated, but given their injuries the Trailblazers should be used that by now.  They are going to miss the offense of Outlaw and Blake, leaving Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless and Nicolas Batum to make up those missing points, something they have struggled to do in the past.  If Brandon Roy can stay healthy the Trailblazers will limp into the playoffs, and play the Lakers in the first round, which lucky for them is a team they’ve had decent success against.

Player to watch : Brandon Roy

He’s an All-Star, and it’s going to be all on him to get this team into the playoffs, but he’ll probably need help from the teams chasing Portland, especially the Rockets who might get hot with new addition Kevin Martin.

Minnesota Timberwolves 13-44

Why did Kurt Rambis take this job?  Bad team, small market and a horrible general manager, at least they have cap space after acquiring a horde of expiring contracts.  Minnesota is the worst team in West, and there are not many bright spots to inspire hope in Timberwolves fans.  Al Jefferson has All-Star potential, but he hasn’t quite convinced me that he’s ever going to get to that level that demands a max contract, in fact his less talented front court mate Kevin Love is statistically the better player, and needs the ball a lot less to get his numbers.  Johnny Flynn has had some good spells as a rookie point guard, and expect him to be the long time answer at that position for Minnesota.  Corey Brewer looks like he starting to develop into a decent NBA player, but it’s hard to envision him as a starter.  The bizarre signing of Ramon Sessions hasn’t worked out very well, and Ryan Gomes continues to struggle to find a role.  The rest of the roster is essentially irrelevant.  Until someone has the good sense to fire team president David Kahn this franchise will be lottery regulars, and just like anyone who plays the lottery on the regular, you are not going to win very often.

Player to watch : Kevin Love

There isn’t anything fancy about Kevin Love’s game, but he is putting up impressive numbers for a player who seems to lack a great deal of physical gifts.  I would certainly rather have him on my roster than Al Jefferson, plus he’s a lot cheaper.

PACIFIC DIVISION

Los Angeles Lakers 42-14

The Lakers are still the prohibitive favorite to win the NBA Finals, but there are certainly questions about how heavy a favorite they are at this point in the season.  Kobe Bryant has been dealing with several nagging injuries all season, and recently he reluctantly sat out several games because of an ankle.  Ron Artest has proven that he is no longer an elite defensive force, which has forced Kobe to spend an increasing amount of time guarding the other team’s best player, which Trevor Ariza did so effectively last year.  The huge front line of Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom have not looked dominant against the best teams in the league, and still appear to lack the toughness that is expected of them.  Shannon Brown has taken advantage of his expanded role, but the rest of the bench has been m.i.a. for most of the season.  The Cavs beat the Lakers in both meetings this season, and Denver and the new look Mavs might even push the Lakers in the Conference Finals.

Player to watch : Kobe Bryant

Kobe has seemed to become increasingly irritated by the performance of his teammates, and that has been a recipe for disaster in the past, the more he tries to shoulder the load, the less effective the surrounding talent becomes, he needs to instill a sense of confidence in the role players because it doesn’t look like they have it right now.

Phoenix Suns 34-23

The Suns were an early season surprise, and are headed toward the playoffs, but they have certainly cooled in the second half of the season, and taken advantage of playing in a very weak division.  Steve Nash is one of the most overrated players in NBA history, but his play at his age is simply amazing, and continues to be one of the elite point guards in the league.  Amare Stoudamire is still an offensive beast, Grant Hill is still playing at a high level, and the emergence of Channing Frye has him inline to be most improved player this year.  However, the diminishing returns of both Jason Richardson and Leandro Barbosa and bench that can contribute little will limit the potential of Phoenix to make any noise in the playoffs, it will be another first round exit for the Suns.  Looking forward Phoenix will almost certainly have the same team next season, unless Steve Kerr can package the expiring contracts of Richardson and Barbosa (a $7 million player option will make Barbosa hard to trade), or finally pull the trigger on an Amare deal.  There are many terrible NBA general managers and team presidents, but Kerr deserves special criticism for trying to trade his franchise player for two straight seasons, not to mention trading away his best defensive talent two years ago before hiring Terry Porter, a defensive minded head coach.  Amare will exercise his player option for next season, and Kerr will probably explore trading him again, but i wouldn’t be shocked if Amare somehow ended up with an extension from the Suns.  Alvin Gentry is a pretty good coach, but he’s going to need better talent, but Kerr doesn’t have a lot of cap room and won’t have a lottery pick to work with this offseason.

Player to watch : Steve Nash

Still playing at a high level even though he’s thirty-six, putting up numbers that better his 2004-05 MVP season, and doing it with less talent around him.  So maybe Steve Kerr wasn’t crazy for signing Nash until he’s thirty-eight, maybe.

Los Angeles Clippers 22-33

Blake Griffin has a career dampening injury that delayed his debut, and then the inevitable season ending surgery, plus the percentages favor Griffin being hampered by injuries.  People are going to be desperate to see Griffin have a breakout season next year, but coming off surgery his goals should be 65 games and 25 minutes a night, and stay healthy so he can breakout in the 2011-12 season.  On the plus side Mike Dunleavy is no longer head coach, which is a highlight in the history of many franchises.  The Clippers are heading into the lottery again, and hopefully they can continue their recent draft success (Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan and Griffin), and pick up another contributing piece.  Center Chris Kaman made his first All-Star Game, and Gordon is having a great season, but those are the only pieces to build around.  Al Thornton has been shipped out for cap relief, and as good a role player Rasual Butler is, he and Craig Smith are not starters in this league, but ultimately they are hamstrung by the fading star of Baron Davis.  Davis numbers have shrunk as his beard has grown, some sort of reverse sampson effect, he can’t carry a team anymore, nor can he really compete with the leagues top point guards over an 82 game season.  Davis is under contract for three more seasons, but he’s only 31, so if they can lighten the load on him, they could make a playoff run with him at the helm.

Player to watch : Eric Gordon

An excellent sophomore scorer, not much of a passer, but is a decent under sized defender.  Gordon definitely has room to grow, especially as a play maker, and rebounder.  His future will certainly depend on which, if any of the max contract free agents chose the lesser Los Angeles club home.

Sacramento Kings 18-38

The re-emergence of Paul Wesphal looked like it could be a fairy-tale early in the season as the Kings toyed with .500 basketball, but the bottom has fallen out and the Kings will certainly be picking high in the lottery this summer.  Tyreke Evans has been phenomenal, and will be Rookie of The Year, and after Kevin Martin’s trade, he is going to be the franchise player for years to come.  The unfortunate part of the Kevin Martin deal, is that all they got in return was Carl Landry and expiring contracts.  Carl Landry is a fantastic rotation player, but he has already reached his ceiling.  The cap space is nice, but it’s unlikely they can get a top tier free agent, which is probably best they have several unfortunate contracts to deal with in years to come.  Beyond Evans, Omri Casspi has been the most interesting player on the Kings, being the first Israeli born NBA player has earned him quite a following, and his tenacious attitude has made an impression in the NBA.  The Kings also have two decent big men in Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes, so there are pieces to build around.  Sacramento’s record should earn them another high draft pick, perhaps continue to draft out of the Calipari pipeline by selecting DeMarcus Cousins.

Player to watch : Tyreke Evans

Evans had obvious NBA talent in his one year at Memphis, he’s big and strong for a guard, putting up 20.1 points, 5.3 assists, and  4.8 rebounds.  The flip side, 3 turnovers a game and he doesn’t have a 3 point shot.  Evans will be a top 5 guard by next year.

Golden State Warriors 16-39

Don Nelson is a good coach, but after one exciting playoff run, with an upset of Finals favorite Dallas in 2006-07, Golden State has devolved into madness.  The season started with team captain, Stephen Jackson, demanding a trade, which he received.  However, the Warriors were forced to give him up for the expiring contract of Raja Bell, and Vladimir Radmanovic (who has a player option next year for $6.8 million), Bell played only once, and Radmanovic contributes little, while Jackson is leading Charlotte into the Playoffs.  Rookie Stephan Curry has impressed as an offensive threat, and fits in nicely with a team that runs and plays no defense.  They have a lot of young players with potential, but it doesn’t seem like Golden State is a place where talent develops, if Nelson has the right pieces to play with he can win a lot of games, but he can’t grow players to fill roles.  The Warriors are not going to have flexibility to make many changes to the roster unless they can convince someone to move on Corey Maggette or Andris Biedrins.  Golden State does have a great scorer in Monta Ellis, Maggette is putting up 20 pre game, and has interesting young players (Anthony Randolph, Anthony Morrow and Anthony Tolliver), but Brendan Wright seems to be a write off at this point, and Biedrins who was effective, has evaporated, so they are going to need more than just another lottery pick to get back into the playoffs.

Player to watch : Monta Ellis

Ellis is averaging career highs in points 25.8, assists 5.4 and steals 2.2, and leads the team in all those categories, he also has career high 4.2 turnovers per game, he also leads the team in that category too.  He’s also got an incredibly affordable contract at $11 million a season for three more season.

The Tiger Hasn’t Been Tamed

Tiger Woods came out of hibernation on Friday morning, at least for a few minutes, for the first time since his Thanksgiving car accident.  In a carefully worded thirteen minute prepared statement, Tiger Woods addressed a group of hand picked individuals in an attempt to make amends.  Woods didn’t really ever apologize, but did go to great lengths to take responsibility for his actions.  The statement in and of itself was largely irrelevant, and was merely part of whatever treatment he has been pursuing.  Part of 12 step programs is to apologize to all those you have hurt because of your addiction, Tiger being a public figure meant that his apology had to be public, although he didn’t really owe the public an apology.  The robotic delivery, and his constant need to look down and read line after line before he spoke, is a strong indication that he didn’t spend much or anytime preparing.  He was only there because he had to be, just like he’s only in rehab because he has to be.  Furthermore, the only time he spoke with emotion and conviction was when he attacked the media for their pursuit of answers, and even though he doesn’t owe the public details about his infidelity, he should at least be aware that people need an explanation, people want to to know why.  He admitted that he is in treatment, but did not specify what for.  He also denied using performance enhancing drug on camera, joining a plethora of athletes who have done the exact same thing, and history has not been kind to most of those athletes.  As a whole he continued the same vague style of communication that was indicative of his previously released written statements, and it is doubtful that he will ever comment openly and honestly about any of this.  The statement itself was a hybrid of 12 step jargon (I did this, I am to blame, I made a mistake) and lawyerly character defense (his wife’s grace and poise, his religion, his charitable work).  The whole thing was a fake as Tiger Woods has always been, his last statement, asking not for forgiveness, but for belief, is an indication that he wants people to buy back into the illusion of Tiger Woods, but that might not be possible.  Woods has been compared to the Spitzer’s and the Sanford’s of the world, politicians who were caught being unfaithful, but a more apt comparison is O.J. Simpson.  Woods did not commit a crime, but in terms of the self-destruction of the image of a public figure, Simpson’s fall from grace is the only relatable experience.  No one remembers O.J. as “the juice”, no one remembers his career at Southern Cal, no one remembers winning the Heisman nor the 2,000 yard season, lost are the endorsements, the commercials, the movie and television work.  Simpson was a likable popular public figure, and in one moment, the infamous white Bronco police chase, that guy died.  Simpson became that Bronco chase, he became the trial, and even though he was found not guilty, a series of incidents from road rage to stealing satellite television to a hold up in a Las Vegas hotel kept him from ever rebuilding the old O.J. Simpson, this new guy is all anyone will ever know.  Tiger Woods died early in morning the day after Thanksgiving, the golf playing kid, the young pro tearing up the field at the Masters, the moments with his dad, the one legged U.S. Open win and all the other unforgettable moments are now utterly forgettable, that Tiger is gone.  The glorious O.J. Simpson was mostly myth, and so was the glorious Tiger Woods, the post Bronco Simpson was much more real, and the post Escalade Woods will certainly be more real.  There will not be any reason to overlook his faults, the malevolent sociopathic Tiger Woods will the Woods that everyone will witness from now on, unless he is truly capable of changing.  His statement indicated that he is pursuing change, but reading prepared words as robotically as David Duchovny does little to inspire faith that Woods is capable of the 180 his life needs to take.  Simpson could never escape the gravity of the murder trial, arguably he could have tried much harder to repair his public image, he never tried very hard at all.  It is unclear how long and how hard Tiger is going to try to make good with the public, at least he has corporate sponsors to help build a new illusion of him for public consumption.  A series of Buddhist inspired Nike commercials are probably already in production, and his charitable work will most certainly be featured more prominently in the marketing of Woods.  However, it will all be for naught if he doesn’t really change, it will only be a matter of time before something else pops up, and now that everyone knows he’s dirty, everyone will be waiting, digging and praying for an opportunity to unravel him again, the concept that this is simply a blip on the radar that won’t be repeated is false.  The story of Tiger Woods will slowly devolve into a much darker tale dominated by his self serving side, he was a superhero and now he will become a supervillain.  Tiger will make his first public appearance April 6th at the Masters Tournament, and the first chapter of his new story will begin there.  Just imagine how polarizing a Tiger Woods victory would be, or how scrutinized he will be if he misses the cut or tanks in the last round, like he did at last year’s PGA Championship considering how much meaningless scrutiny thirteen minutes of inauthentic contrition has recieved.
Dec 2 Tiger Wood Post : The Day Superman Died