ATLANTIC DIVISION
Boston Celtics 36-19
Everything regrading this franchise has to be qualified with “when healthy” because that has been Boston’s biggest struggle over the past two seasons. The Celtics have championship potential, but it there are simply to many obstacles to expect them to win the Eastern Conference Finals. Kevin Garnett has faded from a 20 and 10 machine to a hobbled 14 points and 7 boards, but even in his deteriorated state his energy is essential to the Celtics defense. Ray Allen is toying with career low stats across the board, and his 3 point shot isn’t as reliable as it once was. Paul Pierce is the exact same story Allen, except that his 3 point shot is as good as ever. Free agents Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels have not even really participated, Daniels has missed half the games so far, and while Wallace has actually played in almost every game, it’s hard to say that he’s actually been playing. The flip-side is the young talent the Celtics have in Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins. Rondo is having his best season so far with career highs in points, assists and steals, and Perkins is one of the best defensive centers in the NBA. The signing of Wallace seems to have really widened the rift between the young stars, and the aged “Big Three”, and with everyone but Allen signed for at least next season it’s going to continue to cause chemistry problems for the Celtics. The addition of Nate Robinson will add some punch to their bench, but it is not going to be enough to make them a serious threat to come out of the East. The Celtics are going put up a serious fight regardless of who the end up facing, they have only dropped one game against their potential first round match-ups, but don’t expect to see Boston in the Conference Finals.
Player to watch : Rajon Rondo
Rondo is the Celtics best player putting up 14.0 points, 9.7 assists, 4.4 rebounds and a monster 2.5 steals a game, and he shoots an impressive .521 from the field. Rondo had several huge performances in the playoffs last season, and Boston will only be a successful as their youngest star can be.
Toronto Raptors 31-24
After a tumultuous start Toronto has pulled it together, with a 24-13 record since December 1st. Chris Bosh is averaging career highs in points and rebounds heading into free agency this summer. Hedo Turkoglu’s numbers have been terrible, he’s had a lot of up and down performances, but his play may be affected by family issues. The Raptors other big man, Andrea Bargnani, is also having a career year, solidifying him as a regular starter. DeMar DeRozan has been a little disappointing, Toronto has desperately needed an athletic 2 guard, but DeRozan has looked a little shaky and is a defensive liability. The point guard spot has become a regular quandary for the Raptors, who have been platooning players at the position for several seasons, the current combination of Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack is not much better than any of the others were. The biggest weakness for the Raptors is their lack of a bench, Marco Belinelli is have a nice season, but when he’s your best bench player your in trouble. Toronto looks to be headed for the fifth seed in the playoffs, where they will match-up against either Boston or Atlanta, teams that Toronto has not beaten so far this season. Toronto is soft inside, neither Bosh or Bargnani are much of a defensive presence in the paint, bad defense paired with a thin bench will make Toronto a certain first round out, despite their recent improvement.
Player to watch : Hedo Turkoglu
Turkoglu has really struggled all season, and the Raptors desperately need production from him for them to have any chance in the playoffs. Furthermore, the Raptors invested over $40 million over the next four years in Hedo, if Bosh opts out, which seems likely, Toronto won’t have the flexibility cap-wise to bring in someone to replace him, unless Bryan Colangelo can figure out a sign and trade.
Philadelphia 76ers 22-34
Philadelphia fans are rooting for other teams at this point, hopping to increase their lottery odds, and it’s understandable, given the fact that the 76ers are already at next years luxury tax threshold, the draft may be the only way to alter their roster. This is another franchise that should consider firing everyone in the front office, choosing not to pursue re-signing Andre Miller, whose departure has devastated the 76ers, and the signing of Elton Brand before last season, who fits their offense even less without a point guard like Miller. The return of Allen Iverson appears headed to a premature end, making the 76ers the third consecutive team to do so, and probably marking the end of Iverson’s NBA career. Andre Iguodala’s shooting and scoring numbers are down, but he’s averaging career highs in assists and rebounds, and with Thaddeus Young and Maurice Speights, the 76ers have a good young core. Philadelphia’s future may hinge on the development of rookie point guard Jrue Holiday, who at times looks like Rajon Rondo as a rookie, but without a ball handler other than Iguodala the 76ers are going to continue to struggle. The 76ers should have been able to find a way to get into the playoffs with the talent they have, its a little surprising to see them struggle this badly. Philadelphia is possible landing spot for Gilbert Arenas, an Arenas for Brand would solve issues for both teams, or a Arenas for the expiring contracts of Samuel Dalembert and Jason Kapono would provide salary cap relief for the Wizards.
Player to watch : Andre Iguodala
Iguodala is the team’s franchise player, and it was a good decision on the part of 76ers not to trade him. His scoring is down this season, but he has compensated with 6.9 boards and 5.8 assists a game, the only forward who handles the ball more than Iguodala is LeBron.
New York Knicks 19-37
The Knicks unbelievably managed to get all the cap room they desired at the trade deadline, putting them in position to make a run at two max contract players. It’s a huge gamble, but with so many free agents, almost half the league enters free agency with LeBron this summer, it may be possible to build a championship calibre team entirely through free agency. With the top tier teams already monstrously over the luxury tax threshold and the cap shrinking next season the Knicks can establish themselves as the premiere free agent destination if they can land two of the max contract players. However, if they can’t do that then all that cap room is either not going to get used or wasted on lesser talent. Tracy McGrady may have already hurt himself in only his second appearance as a Knick, he needs to show he can still play, and play in a team concept, or possibly face exile like Allen Iverson faced last offseason. David Lee and Al Harrington are the Knicks two best players, both are free agents, Harrington may be re-signable at a reduced cost, Lee is going to want to get paid for his production, but New York has been reluctant to sign him to a long year deal. Whatever happens next year the Knicks will at least be out of the shadow of the Isaiah Thomas era (I saw him on TV last week saying that his real talent was being a GM not a coach, given his track record, if he says he is a better GM than a coach, why would anyone ever hire him as a coach?). Regardless of new talent, Mike D’Antoni will never win a championship.
Player to watch : Wilson Chandler
There’s not much left on the Knicks roster after the flurry of cap space trades Donnie Walsh made right before the trade deadline. Chandler is the only young talented player on the Knicks roster.
New Jersey Nets 5-52
Who keeps giving Kiki Vandewghe NBA jobs? Why hasn’t congress assembled a panel to verbally abuse the worst general managers in basketball? They’ve done it to the heads of other poorly run businesses, and something has to be done to protect the fans from front office decisions that cripple organizations with losing season after losing season. The Nets are horrible even though they have several nice pieces in Devin Harris and Brook Lopez, but Harris has struggled shooting an abysmal .392, while Lopez has impressed and is possibly an All-Star in the making. Not much of the remaining roster is returning next season, so expect an overhaul, but the Nets are unlikely to be able to lure a max contract player. The Nets will have the best shot at the first pick in the draft lottery, which in and of itself would be a huge boost the franchise, but the lottery can be unkind, and with only a few franchise players in the draft New Jersey is desperate for that first pick. Regardless, the Nets are going to be back in lottery next year. Prediction : New Jersey will tie the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers worst ever record of 9-73.
Player to watch : Brook Lopez
This is easy, with Devin Harris struggling, and with virtually nothing else on the roster, Lopez is having a fantastic sophomore season. Averaging 19.1 points and 8.9 rebounds, New Jersey can look forward to Lopez being a 20 and 10 franchise player for years to come.
CENTRAL DIVISION
Cleveland Cavaliers 44-14
The Cavs have the best record in the NBA, and signs point to a Lakers vs. Cavs Finals, but at this point last season everybody was thinking the exact same thing. What is most impressive about the Cavaliers is that, like the Lakers, they have played at a really high level despite many set-backs. The season began with Delonte West El Mariachi incident, and the incorporation of Shaquille O’Neal, West has continued to be in and out of the lineup, but Shaq has slowly found his niche, and hopefully playing him limited minutes will mean he’ll be at his best in the playoffs. Furthermore, the Cavs have dealt with injuries, most notably Mo Williams. The deadline trade for Anatwan Jamison, was coup for Danny Ferry, who has struggled to put a strong team around LeBron. Luckily the NBA won’t stop Zydrunas Ilgauskas from return to Cleveland when he is bought out by the Wizards, but in the future that trade loop hole should be closed because the Cavs got Jamison for essentially nothing. Leon Powe will return from injury this week, giving Cleveland added depth in the front court. However, the same questions from the Orlando series linger with the Cavaliers, Orlando will still be a tough match-up, but their potential first round match-up against the Bobcats is a nightmare. Reminiscent of the Golden State/Dallas 8 vs 1 match-up a few years back, Charlotte has beaten the Cavs all three meetings this season, with Cleveland struggling again to match-up against two large perimeter players, which appears to be their kryptonite. Cavs fans need to root for either a Bobcats win streak to raise their seed or a losing streak to end their playoff hopes because there is no way that Cleveland face Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson again. There is no doubt that the Cavs have to be favorites in the East, and if they reach the Finals they should be able to topple the Lakers, and they might make it look easy, but only if they avoid series against the Bobcats, Magic and Nuggets, all of whom could beat Cleveland in a seven game series.
Player to watch : LeBron James
LeBron is the best player in basketball, and remarkably he continues to improve each season. This year he has a career high in points 30.0 and assists 8.4, and is shooting over .500 from the field for the first time in his career, but if he intends to shoot five 3 point shots a game he needs to shoot better than .350 from beyond the arc. Another MVP title seems to be in his future, but without a title it might not seem justified.
Chicago Bulls 29-27
In back to back seasons the Bulls have been one of the more active teams at the trade deadline, last year adding Brad Miller and John Salmons to push them into the playoffs, this year Chicago moved out more talent than they brought in, sending Salmons and Tyrus Thomas away for expiring contracts. The offseason decision to not re-sign Ben Gordon really hurt the Bulls’ offensive effectiveness, but to keep him Chicago would have had to overpay, and the team is on pace to better it’s record from last season. The salary dump before the deadline will allow the Bulls to pursue a max contract player, Chris Bosh seems like their target. The Bulls are clearly thinking more about the future than the playoffs this year, where they could match-up against Boston again, the most exciting series from last year’s playoffs. Even if the the Bulls don’t make much noise this year, the future is bright for Bulls fans. Point guard Derrick Rose is scoring almost 20 points a game, and was named to his first All-Star game. Joakim Noah has slowly developed into an effective big man, averaging better than 10 points and 11 boards a game, after looking lost in his first two years, and rookie Taj Gibson has been a major contributor, making easier for the Bulls to finally part ways with Thomas. Without Gordon or Salmons is hard to imagine the Bulls making much if any noise in the playoffs, but a Rajon Rondo vs Derrick Rose first round match-up would be a great showcase for two of the best young guards in basketball.
Player to watch : Derrick Rose
Without Rose the Bulls would be a cellar team, and his increased scoring has kept them competitive, and landed them some marquee wins. Rose is going to have to be epic for the Bulls to have any chance in the playoffs, but the team is definitely more focused on next year.
Milwaukee Bucks 27-28
Only in the East can a team be under .500 and still make the playoffs. The Bucks are battling with Charlotte for the last playoff spot in the East. It would be a major coup for Milwaukee to make the playoffs considering the roster that they are working with. Brandon Jennings has impressed as a rookie, a healthy Andrew Bogut is putting up career highs in points 16.0, boards 10.4 and blocks 2.3, and Luke Ridnour is having a great season as a role-player. However, Michael Redd suffered another season ending injury, putting his NBA career in jeopardy, and the rest of the roster is weak, with Carlos Delfino, Charlie Bell and Ersan Ilyasova all having to play lots of minutes. The trade deadline addition of John Salmons gives them some desperately needed offense, but that may not be enough to keep them ahead of the Charlotte Bobcats.
Player to watch : Brandon Jennings
The Michael Redd era may be over, so it will be up to Jennings to take over the franchise, he is still really rough around the edges, but he has shown enough maturity to believe he will continue to develop.
Detroit Pistons 21-35
A playoff stalwart for most of the previous decade, which made Joe Dumars the toast of NBA general managers, now they are looking at a future of lottery picks, and judging by Dumars genius decision to draft Darko Millic over Carmelo Anthony, Detroit fans have every right to be nervous about their franchise’s future. Richard Hamilton is still putting up good numbers, but he’s much less efficient in getting those numbers. Hamilton is under contract for another three years at $12.6 million a season, a contract that Dumars would love to move, but at 32 years old there might not be much of market unless the Celtics like him as a Ray Allen replacement. Tayshaun Prince has fallen off quite a bit, and is another player that Dumars wants to move, his contract expires next season, but Dumars would certainly have to take back a bad contract in any effort to move him. Knicks fans can look at Detroit as their worse case scenario heading into free agency, Detroit had the most cap room last season, but could only end up with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villaneva, over payed for both of them, and not surprisingly their numbers are way down. The worst thing for the Pistons is that Jason Maxiell is apparently eating his way through his $20 million contract. On the positive side, Rodney Stuckey is one of the best young guards that no one talks about, and rookie Swede Jonas Jerebko is having one of biggest impacts out of the second round of the draft.
Player to watch : Rodney Stuckey
Stuckey is averaging career highs across the board now that he has cemented himself as a starter, with little to no offense from the front court, both Stuckey and Hamilton have had a heavy scoring load and that may have driven their shooting percentages down.
Indiana Pacers 19-37
The Pacers are headed back to lottery, hoping for some magic because their roster is a wasteland after star forward Danny Granger. Granger is fantastic, but he is constantly nagged by injuries. Almost the entire roster is under contract next season, so Pacers fans will have to endure another rough season in 2010-11, however, after that Granger, Dahntay Jones and AJ Price are the only players under contract. This team really should have moved Murphy, because without his rebounding the Pacers would have probably lost every game for the remainder of the season, improving their lottery position, which seems to be the strategy at this point.
Player to watch : Danny Granger
Granger was an All-Star last season, but again he has been hurt by injuries, limiting his effectiveness. The Pacers have to figure out a way keep him on the court, because without the franchise player on the court this team is never going to develop.
SOUTHEAST DIVISION
Orlando Magic 38-19
The Magic spent a lot of money this offseason to remake the roster of team that won the Eastern Conference last year. Vince Carter is huge upgrade over Courtney Lee, and while the loss of Hedo Turkoglu hurt the teams fourth quarter chemistry, Hedo hasn’t been playing very well this year anyway. Carter has become increasingly comfortable in Orlando, and after a long series of rotation experiments to figure out how to use Orlando’s new pieces, it seems like Stan Van Gundy is finally content with what he has. Losing Rafer Alston may have been a bigger loss than Turkoglu, Orlando’s offense was much more fluid with Alston in the playoffs, and while Alston is a terrible point guard, his style is perfect for a rebound machine like Dwight Howard. The Magic still match-up favorably with the Cavs, but the Lakers still represent a problem with their formidable size. Expect the Magic to muscle their way past the Celtics, and meet the Cavs in an Eastern Conference Finals rematch.
Player to watch : Dwight Howard
When Howard is dominant, the Magic are dominant, but Howard has failed to develop a balanced enough offensive game to be consistently dominant at both ends of the court. The Magic can beat the Cavs in a seven game series, but only if Howard can step up.
Atlanta Hawks 35-20
Two years ago the Hawks made the playoffs, last year they made the second round, so the question is can they topple one of the big three in the East? Maybe. The addition of Jamal Crawford has changed the dynamic of this team, accepting coming off the bench to give the Hawks the best sixth man in the league. Both Josh Smith and Al Horford are having career years, and both of them should have been All-Stars (Smith was left off the All-Star Team). Led by Joe Johnson this team seems to have everything they need to compete with the best teams in the league. However, Atlanta does lack depth in the front court, they match-up great against the Celtics, but it hard to imagine the Hawks toppling either the Magic or the Cavs. This team is young, and if Atlnata can re-sign Joe Johnson this summer, this team will make a Finals appearance sooner rather than later.
Player to watch : Joe Johnson
The only shooting guards better than Johnson are Kobe and Wade. Johnson has been playing an absurd number of minutes, and with Crawford on the bench, he has played a few less minutes each game. It hasn’t hurt Johnson’s numbers, and Crawford has given the Hawks another creative scorer.
Miami Heat 29-29
It’s been a rough year for the Heat, it appears that they will limp into the playoffs, but they are not going to have much of a say once they get there. This team will get a major overhaul this summer, with enough cap room to re-sign Dwyane Wade and another max contract player. In fact the Heat only have two players under contract next season, Michael Beasley and Daequan Cook, so Wade is going to be playing with a bunch of new faces, and with so many free agents available, the Heat could make a major turn around next season. Beasley remains an enigma, there’s definitely a lot of talent there, but there isn’t a lot of improvement, his numbers are only marginally better than his rookie season, and he is seeing seven more minutes per night. Beasley may have already reached his ceiling, at least in the environment he’s in, being moved to a smaller market on team with different expectations might be the best thing for him. Dwyane Wade seemed to dial it back a little this season, realizing that the team wasn’t going to make a title run, which was disappointing, the Heat should be better than .500.
Player to watch : Dwyane Wade
Not exactly playing at an MVP level this season, but still one of the top five players in the league.
Charlotte Bobcats 27-28
Charlotte has yet to make the playoffs, and this might be the year they break through. Larry Brown and Michael Jordan have been tinkering with the roster all season, landing Stephen Jackson for practically nothing, and adding Tyrus Thomas at the trade deadline. Gerald Wallace is having a career year, making his first All-Star Game, and leading the team in rebounding. The Bobcats should have enough to get the last playoff spot, which would put them in a first round match-up against the Cavs, who they have defeated all three meetings this season. Which could end up being the best first round series, in a year where the top seeds will likely cruise in their first round series’.
Player to watch : Stephen Jackson
Jackson is one of the most talented perimeter players in the league, and at his size he is a serious match-up problem. If the Bobcats can make the playoffs, his team can rely on his experience in upsetting the one seeded Dallas Mavericks a few years back.
Washington Wizards 20-34
After the season the Wizards have endure some lottery magic would go a long way to softening the destruction of this team. After the suspension of Gilbert Arenas, the front office has elected to quite literally blow the team up, something they should have done two years ago, before they signed Arenas to a huge long term contract. Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson and Brendan Haywood have all been shipped out for little more than cap relief. Josh Howard the only usable peice they acquired promptly tore his ACL, and is out for the season. If they elect not to use the team option of Howard, the Wizards will have a lot of cap room to work with, but it’s hard to imagine that they could bring in better talent. The Wizards had gone as far as they could with the core that they had been relying on for several years, this break up was inevitable, and if they can move Arenas then they can really start this franchise over.
Player to watch : Randy Foye
If anyone is watching…